Think back to Thanksgiving 1998. You were vegging in the front of the TV trying to digest that fourth slice of pumpkin pie when Randy Moss torched the Dallas secondary for his third touchdown. Before dozing off, you thought, "Anybody can play quarterback for the Vikings."

	Vikes' running tally in '99
	Record when opponent outrushed Minnesota: 3-3
	Record when Minnesota outrushed opponent: 7-3
	Record with less than 100 yards rushing: 2-4
	Record with more than 100 yards rushing: 8-2
	Minnesota rushing average in defeats: 104.0
	Opponent rushing average in defeats: 121.3
	Minnesota rushing average in victories: 121.7
	Opponent rushing average in victories: 85.9

Dennis Green evidently had the same thought on the sidelines. Daunte Culpepper, he of zero career starts and zero career passing attempts, is Minnesota's new starting QB.

Culpepper could be the second coming of Fran Tarkenton. However, the object here is not to weigh the strengths and weaknesses of Minnesota's 1998 No. 1 pick (or debate the logic behind letting a second-year quarterback pilot the ship without any significant flight time). That's because, even though Culpepper is in the hot seat, Minnesota's success still will be determined by the running game.

Even when the Vikings rolled to their remarkable 15-1 mark two years ago, the running game was the key. The aerial show by Moss, Randall Cunningham and Cris Carter got all the attention, but Robert Smith, Leroy Hoard and an offensive line featuring three Pro Bowlers kept the chains moving, safeties close to the line and the Vikings defense fresh. Minnesota's second-ranked offense was a respectable 11th in rushing with a 121.0 average as Smith amassed 1,187 yards on 4.8 yards per carry.

Last season wasn't any different, at least in terms of the running game's importance. If the Vikings ran, they won.

During its 2-4 start, Minnesota was outgained a combined 617-540 on the ground (102.8 yards a game to 90.0). In the remaining 10 games, the Vikes went 8-2 while outrushing the competition by an average of 132-97 a game.

OK, the switch from Cunningham to Jeff George at QB had a lot to do with the turnaround. But so did Hoard, whose pinch-hitting for Smith in Weeks 7, 8 and 9 helped start a five-game winning streak. In three consecutive starts, Hoard averaged 19 carries and 92 yards a game.

Smith kept the playoff push going when he returned from hernia surgery in Week 10. The Vikings went 5-2 to clinch a wild-card berth as Smith averaged 20 carries and 97 yards per game with a season-high 146-yard outburst against the Giants in a 34-17 victory in Week 16.

Any offensive coordinator worth his weight in game film will tell you carries, not yards, is the number to watch. The Vikings were just 2-2 when Smith had a 100-yard game. When Smith got at least 16 carries, though, they were 7-3. A sustained running game means ball control, and Smith provided that by averaging 87 yards a game and 4.5 per carry when he got that many attempts.

Smith hasn't exactly been an iron man in his seven seasons. As Smith's understudy, Hoard has proved to be the most valuable backup running back in the NFL today. The 10-year veteran has gained a combined 1,034 yards the past two seasons to prevent teams from teeing off on the quarterback.

Which takes us back to Culpepper. He'll still be counted on to read the blitz and complete that 10-yard out on third down. The best way to bring along a young quarterback is to let him ride an effective running game. The Vikings have the backs. They just need to make sure an offensive line without Jeff Christy and Randall McDaniel can hold up its part of the deal.