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Thursday, September 21
 
Fancy passing doesn't mean a championship

By Russell S. Baxter
Special to ESPN.com

One year after coming out of nowhere and leading his team to a Super Bowl championship, Rams quarterback Kurt Warner has us all talking again. Last season, the former Arena Football League star took over the starting job late in the summer, threw 41 touchdowns (third most in a season in NFL history) and won league and Super Bowl XXXIV Most Valuable Player honors.

This year, Warner may be on his way to obliterating the NFL record for passing yards in a season (5,084) set by Miami's Dan Marino in 1984. After three weeks, the St. Louis signal-caller has thrown for an amazing 1,221 yards, far ahead of Marino's numbers (841) after three games in '84. And despite a 3-0 start for the defending champions, their contests (41-36, 37-34 and 41-24) look like true Arena Football scores thanks to a defensive unit that has been extremely porous.

Still, do all of those passing yards add up to a championship? Take a look at the Top 10 performances in NFL history in terms of passing yards by a player in a season, and where their teams wound up by year's end. Only Marino in 1984 made it as far as the Big Game, and the Dolphins were blown out by the 49ers, 38-16, in Super Bowl XIX.

 
Player Team Year Yards Team result
Dan Marino Miami 1984 5,084 Lost Super Bowl XIX
Dan Fouts San Diego 1981 4,802 Lost AFC Championship game
Dan Marino Miami 1986 4,746 Did not make playoffs
Dan Fouts San Diego 1980 4,715 Lost AFC Championship game
Warren Moon Houston 1991 4,690 Lost AFC Divisional Playoffs
Warren Moon Houston 1990 4,689 Lost AFC Wild Card Game
Neil Lomax St. Louis 1984 4,614 Did not make playoffs
Drew Bledsoe New England 1994 4,555 Lost AFC Wild Card Game
Lynn Dickey Green Bay 1983 4,458 Did not make playoffs
Dan Marino Miami 1994 4,453 Lost AFC Divisional Playoffs

Many times, there's a reason quarterbacks are throwing for all of those yards, due mainly to the fact that they don't have a defense to support their cause. A look at the aforementioned 10 teams in terms of total yards allowed per game and their defensive ranks those seasons clearly shows this.

 
Team Year YPG allowed Def. Ranking
Miami 1984 338.8 19th
San Diego 1981 383.5 27th
Miami 1986 378.1 26th (t)
San Diego 1980 293.2 6th
Houston 1990 289.7 11th
Houston 1990 289.7 11th
St. Louis 1984 318.4 8th
New England 1994 325.4 18th
Green Bay 1983 400.2 28th
Miami 1994 326.5 19th

Notice that not one of those teams finished in the Top 5 in the league in terms of total defense, and 6 of the 10 finished in the bottom half of the rankings.

Yes, Warner and his team have been fun to watch so far this season. But there's no guarantee we'll be watching the Rams on Super Bowl Sunday in January.

Russell S. Baxter is the chief NFL researcher for ESPN and a senior reporter for ESPN the Magazine.





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