This is the time of year when fans like to say, "If the season ended today ..."

	Marvin Harrison's Colts are finally alone in first place in the AFC East.

In the AFC, the season might as well end today. With five games remaining, the playoff teams look set. But the NFC, where mediocrity reigns, still has work to do.

"Every week we're getting better," Arizona's Jake Plummer said after coming on in the second half to lead the Cardinals to a 34-24 victory over the Giants.

That left the Cards, who were without the injured Plummer since Oct. 17, at 5-6 with three consecutive wins. That makes them a contender in the NFC, where just six teams are over .500.

Here's how the conferences shape up with five weeks to go:

AFC
The arithmetic is simple.

Take Indianapolis (9-2), Miami (8-3) and probably Buffalo (8-4) from the East; Jacksonville (10-1) and Tennessee (9-2) from the Central; and the winner of the West, where Seattle (8-3) leads Kansas City by two games and already has beaten the Chiefs on the road. New England (6-5) is mathematically alive but fading fast after three consecutive losses.

"We've got to win the rest of them -- that's where we are," quarterback Drew Bledsoe said after the Patriots' 17-7 loss in Buffalo.

New England's problem can be attributed to a beach game at the Pro Bowl last January when Robert Edwards, their heavy-duty running back, tore up his knee. He has been replaced by veteran Terry Allen and rookie Kevin Faulk. But the onus has fallen on Bledsoe, and it's starting to show. He has thrown nine interceptions in three straight losses to the Jets, Dolphins and Bills.

Theoretically, New England might win them all -- the Patriots will be favored in all but a Dec. 12 trip to Indianapolis. But they could lose at home next week against Dallas and on Dec. 26 against Buffalo.

But back to the top.

The Jaguars, whose only loss is to Tennessee, will probably have to wait until after they visit the Titans on Dec. 26 to know if they will win its division. The Titans, who won in Jacksonville, will have a tiebreaker with a victory.

But the Jaguars can clinch at least a wild-card berth if they beat Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New England and Kansas City both lose for the sixth time Sunday. On the other hand, if Jacksonville doesn't make the playoffs, it would be the wackiest development in one of the NFL's wackiest seasons.

NFC
St. Louis (9-2) will be the champion in the West as soon as it wins one more game or Carolina loses one.

The Rams also have a two-game edge on Washington, Minnesota, Detroit and Tampa Bay (all 7-4) for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Considering the three Central teams all will play each other and Green Bay while the Rams waltz through a bunch of sub-.500 teams, the road through the Super Bowl almost surely will be through the Trans World Dome.

But watch the Vikings, who were 15-1 last season and were the clear preseason favorite in the NFC.

They've won all five games since Jeff George took over at quarterback -- amazing considering George's history as a loser. Their defense is nothing special, but Cris Carter has 10 touchdown catches in 22 quarters since George took over and Randy Moss has 331 receiving yards in the last two game (shades of last season).

At the other end of the spectrum are the Bucs, who can't score but who can't be scored upon. Trent Dilfer is out for perhaps the season with a broken collarbone. But perhaps rookie Shaun King is the answer because he won't be asked to do anything special.

"We have such a good defense and such good running backs and wide receivers, if I play smart, we'll be fine," King said after throwing a 2-yard TD pass for the only touchdown in an impressive 16-3 victory over Seattle in the Kingdome.

In the East, the Redskins' one-game lead over Dallas (6-5) is tenuous because the Cowboys have the tiebreaker. They beat Washington twice, two games that drew outbursts from Dan (the Fan) Snyder, their 35-year-old owner. The Cardinals are charging, the Giants are fading.

The odd team out in the Central could be the Lions, who have to go to Minnesota and Tampa Bay. The Packers, 6-5 after Monday night's win in San Francisco, are not out of it -- at least for the wild card.

The key game comes next Monday night in Tampa, where the irresistible force, the Vikings, meets the immovable object, the Bucs.

If the Vikings win that, there's little standing in their way on the road to Atlanta -- except St. Louis.

But that's for later.

Finally getting the point
After a season of 13-10, 6-3 and other low scores, the NFL finally broke out Sunday.

In the 14 games played Thursday and Sunday, 629 points were scored, or 44.9 per game. That's more than five points above the average of 39.6 entering this weekend.

Some of the scores were uncharacteristic, such as Kansas City's 37-34 victory over Oakland, two defensive teams staging a shootout. Yes, there were three defensive TDs in that game, two by the Chiefs' Cris Dishman, but the offenses also put up 648 yards.

There were other strange games.

The Cards and Giants, both good defenses with offensive problems, played a 34-24 game in which the Cardinals won in the Meadowlands wind. Compare that to the Cardinals' 14-3 victory in the desert last month. And the Jaguars, who beat the Ravens 6-3 in Jacksonville two weeks ago, won in Baltimore 30-23.

One of the few low-scoring games was the Colts' 13-6 victory over the Jets. That's uncharacteristic, too. The Colts won their other game with the Jets 16-13. That gives Indianapolis 29 points from the two games. In no other single game did the Colts score fewer than 25.