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Thursday, August 15
 
Patriots season could go either way

By Glen Farley
Pro Football Weekly

FOXBORO, Mass. -- The ride?

Upon further review, it was every bit as improbable as the one taken by another Patriot, Paul Revere, more than 200 years before.

As long shots at the season's outset and with their task seemingly made far more difficult by the loss of franchise quarterback Drew Bledsoe in Week 2, the Patriots stunned the pro football world, using a strong finishing kick by Adam Vinatieri to emerge as champions of Super Bowl XXXVI.

Tom Brady threw 18 TDs and only 12 INTs in his first season at the Pats' starter.
Will the Patriots ride again?

Can this team saddle up and mount a serious, if not successful, defense of the title so many pigskin pundits still can't believe they won, or are they destined to slip back into relative oblivion, as they did after Bill Parcells rode them to their appearance in Super Bowl XXXI?

Why the Patriots will contend

  • Bill Belichick is a genius: Pick up a copy of Pro Football Weekly's NFL Preview 2002 and you'll find this excerpt: "Bill Belichick is coming off the greatest one-year coaching job ever."

    Two games into last season, the Patriots had lost two games and their starting quarterback, yet Belichick still found a way to win.

    Call them overachievers if you must. But this team believes in and plays for its head coach.

  • They're Brady's bunch now: The Patriots truly did play inspired football once Tom Brady took over for Bledsoe at quarterback.

    Perhaps it was the fact that they collectively raised their level of play because they realized they were being led by a second-year quarterback who had thrown all of three passes as a rookie. Perhaps Brady truly is more of a leader than his predecessor. Either way, the Patriots responded to him.

  • These Patriots are improved: Whereas last season they had Rod Rutledge and Jermaine Wiggins, this year the Patriots have first-round draft pick Daniel Graham and free-agent acquisition Christian Fauria battling for playing time at tight end.

    Whereas last year they had Troy Brown, David Patten and problem child Terry Glenn, this year the Patriots have Brown, Patten, free-agent acquisition Donald Hayes and second-round draft pick Deion Branch at wide receiver.

    Defensively, fourth-round pick Jarvis Green and free agents Rick Lyle and Steve Martin have been added up front. Victor Green and Tom Knight have been added via free agency to the secondary.

  • They know how to win the close ones: After losing nine games by eight points or less in 2000 and kicking off the 2001 campaign with six- and seven-point setbacks, the Patriots went 7-1 the rest of the way (including 3-0 in the postseason) in games decided by seven points or less.

    Yes, the Patriots know how to win the close games -- a must in a league filled with parity.

    Why the Patriots won't contend

  • Boy wonder becomes a Year 2 blunder: What if Brady, the feel-good story of the 2001 NFL season, does not play well in 2002? The Patriots no longer have the luxury of tapping Bledsoe on the shoulder as they did when Brady was injured in last season's AFC championship game in Pittsburgh.

    Speaking of what ifs, what if running back Antowain Smith, a 1,000-yard rusher in his first year in New England, grounds to a halt? To this point, Kevin Faulk and J.R. Redmond have given no indication they could take the ball and run with it on an every-down basis.

  • The breaks even out: From the moment Brady replaced Bledsoe in Week 2 last season it really was a storybook season in New England.

    The one serious injury the team suffered -- Bledsoe's chest injury -- turned out to be a blessing in the long run as it led to the development of a Super Bowl MVP who might have otherwise spent the season carrying a clipboard.

    Also remember, this team won a game in overtime in Buffalo last December only because Patten, who had been knocked silly on the play, was still touching the football as he lay out of bounds. Not to mention the "Tuck Rule," which tucked it to Oakland in last January's "Snow Bowl" in Foxboro.

  • They have been slow starters under Belichick In their first two seasons under Belichick, the Patriots have compiled a September winning percentage of .143, going 0-for-the-month in 2000 and 1-2 in 2001.

    A repeat this year and the Patriots' season may be over before the Red Sox's.

  • The schedule's a turkey: It's not just who the Patriots must play (remember, they've moved from a fifth-place to a first-place schedule), but when they play 'em -- five games in 25 days in November, four of them on the road, from Nov. 3 through Thanksgiving Day.

  • From hunter to hunted: Will the Patriots be able to make the transition from the underdog, a hungry team that was hunting, to top dog, a team that will be hunted?

    The bull's-eye is squarely on the Patriots, beginning with their Sept. 9 Monday-night opener against the Steelers, the team they beat in the AFC title game last January.

    Glen Farley covers the Patriots for the Brockton (Mass.) Enterprise.

    Pro Football Weekly Material from Pro Football Weekly.
    Visit PFW's web site at http://www.profootballweekly.com






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