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| Tuesday, February 13 Updated: February 14, 12:31 PM ET The best defense of all time? By Eddie Epstein ESPN.com |
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Let me say it up front. I am a Ravens fan. I was born and raised in Baltimore and spent many Sundays at Memorial Stadium watching the Colts play. I was at the complex "that night" in March of 1984. Even though I moved away from Baltimore before the "birth" of the Ravens, I have had Ravens season tickets since the beginning.
However, when it comes to evaluating the claim as to whether or not the 2000 Ravens have the best defense of all time, I'm going to let the numbers do the talking. And some of the numbers are not going to be too familiar to many of you. The statistical concept of standard deviation measures how much a team dominated its contemporaries with little or no temporal bias. In the book Baseball Dynasties, we found that the best baseball teams of 1995 are as many standard deviations from the league average in runs scored and runs allowed as the best teams of 1905 or 1955. The same is true in football. Before the Ravens won the Super Bowl, much was said that their defense could not be considered as being among the best in history unless they won the Super Bowl. So, we looked at Super Bowl winning teams beginning in 1978, when the 16-game schedule was introduced and rules were changed to open up the passing game (in baseball, the rules have remained remarkably consistent. Football has been relatively constant since 1978). And we excluded the strike years of 1982 and '87. That said, the two defenses that stand out are the 1985 Bears and the 2000 Ravens. Here is a chart comparing those two teams in basic categories and showing their rank among all 602 team seasons from 1978 to 2000:
The Ravens outrank the Bears in three of these four categories, although in points allowed and yards allowed, the teams are relatively close.
Here's where standard deviation enters the equation. Standard deviation simply measures the spread in a set of numbers. The more closely a set of numbers is bunched together, the smaller the standard deviation. As pro sports leagues have matured, the standard deviation in performance among players and teams has gotten smaller. That fact means that simply comparing performance to the league average in a given season might be misleading. But using standard deviation allows you to accurately compare teams across seasons. Look at this first:
Using standard deviations, these two teams are almost identical. How identical? In the book Baseball Dynasties, we simply added the two standard deviation scores (runs scored and runs allowed) to get a team's total score. If you add the points allowed and yards allowed standard deviation scores to get an overall defense score, this is what you get (overall ranking is listed second):
It can't get much closer than that. The 1985 Bears and the 2000 Ravens are two of only three teams since 1978 to be at least two standard deviations better than the league mean in both points allowed and yards allowed in the same season. The third team? The 1986 Bears.
Based on all of this, I have to call it a draw between the 1985 Bears and the 2000 Ravens for the title of the best defense. It's not close as to which team made me happier. Eddie Epstein works as a consultant to major league baseball teams. He is the co-author, along with ESPN.com's Rob Neyer, of "Baseball Dynasties: The Greatest Teams of All Time." He has been a regular contributor to ESPN.com's baseball coverage. |
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