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Updated: August 31, 1:19 PM ET Who's the NFL's next rags-to-riches team? By Greg Garber ESPN.com |
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Only a full-blown strike might have prevented the New York Yankees from buying their way to a fifth World Series title in seven seasons. In the NBA, the Los Angeles Lakers have been on top for three years running, while the Detroit Red Wings (three Stanley Cups in six years) are the standard in the NHL. So what's the deal with the NFL? The 1997-98 Denver Broncos are the closest thing the league has seen to a dynasty in recent years and they only won back-to-back Vince Lombardi Trophies. Since then, the St. Louis Rams went from 4-12 (and last in the NFC West) to a combined 16-3 and won Super Bowl XXXIV. Then the Baltimore Ravens turned an 8-8 mark into 16-4 and won Super Bowl XXXV. Last year, perhaps most improbably, the New England Patriots -- 5-11 and last in the AFC East in 2000 -- ripped off a 14-5 record and stunned the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. The league's brand of socialism -- the official name, of course, is parity -- has been widely documented. Bad teams get high draft choices and easy schedules. Good teams get low choices and hard schedules. And that, baseball fans, is why you find teams like the Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants in the Super Bowl one year and out of the playoffs the next. This, obviously, is all old news. The real question with the imminent arrival of the NFL season -- perhaps the only question worth asking -- is: Who will be the Patriots of 2002? How about their AFC East rival in Buffalo, the team that wound up with ex-Patriot Drew Bledsoe? "That's really nice of you to say," said new Buffalo president and general manager Tom Donahoe. "Hopefully, you're right. We feel good about our team." The Bills were a dreadful 3-13 a year ago. They lost 35-0 at San Francisco and ended the season with a gruesome 34-7 loss at Miami. Don't laugh, but Buffalo could make some noise this year. For starters, they got a future Hall of Famer in Bledsoe for next to nothing and they've surrounded him with soft hands. Wide receivers Eric Moulds and Peerless Price, fullback Larry Centers and tight end Jay Riemersma were already onboard and then the Bills added second-round draft choice Josh Reed, a nifty wideout. The first-round pick was offensive tackle Mike Williams, who will protect Bledsoe's back. If the defense comes around -- and this is supposed to be head coach Gregg Williams' area -- the Bills could kick some AFC East grass. Donahoe says his team is conscious of the Rams/Ravens/Patriots model, but recognizes the factors that worked in their favor. "We have to guard against complacency -- it's not an automatic," he said. "Those teams worked hard and they stayed injury free." Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, faced with the constraints of the salary cap, went out and secured the services of a number of productive but overlooked veterans. The defense didn't have a lot of big names -- Lawyer Milloy? Roman Phifer? Teddy Bruschi? -- but it was effective. "A team with a dominant defense has the best chance, that's the lesson of free agency," Indianapolis Colts president Bill Polian said. "Now that's not to say that you can't win with a good offense and a mediocre defense -- it's just a lot harder." Ladies and gentlemen, we give you the 2002 Colts, owners of the No. 31-ranked defense in the NFL (out of 31). Some among the prognosticators believe that Indianapolis, 6-10 a year ago, can flip those numbers around and make the playoffs. The offense, led by Peyton Manning an Edgerrin James, is explosive enough. The defense, goes the argument, will be improved simply by the presence of new head coach Tony Dungy. "I don't know," Polian said. "We've had so many injuries to this point. We've got two starting corners hurt, we have no number two running back. I don't have any idea who we'll line up on opening day. "I don't place much stock in all of these preseason predictions because they're based on past performance, not what's really occurring. The doctors are saying we'll be healthy by Week 4. If that's true, I guess we have a chance." Quarterback seems to be an overrated factor in recent Super Bowl winners; Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer and Tom Brady were all penciled in behind someone else before their championship runs. That means there's hope for a team that has a quarterback depth chart featuring Jon Kitna, Akili Smith and Gus Frerotte. Yes, believe it or not, some folks think the Bengals -- 6-10 a year ago -- have the goods to get dramatically better. The same is true of the San Diego Chargers, who have beefed up the pass rush with free agent Marcellus Wiley. Head coach Marty Schottenheimer should be a better fit here than in Washington. His discipline could help the Chargers, who lost seven games in the final 90 seconds, get over the top. Place an asterisk next to the Tennessee Titans. They almost won that Super Bowl against the Rams, but fell on hard times a year ago, going 7-9. Injuries in the secondary and to running back Eddie George were the primary culprits. The Titans appear healthy again and poised for a playoff run. And what of the NFC? Well, last year the San Francisco 49ers went from 6-10 to 12-4 and a playoff berth. The Chicago Bears turned a 5-11 season into a 13-3 postseason effort. While there doesn't seem to be any fresh blood in the NFC, it's plausible that the New Orleans Saints (7-9 a year ago) or even the 9-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers might make a quantum leap. Give the Patriots, Ravens and Rams some credit. Beyond winning the Super Bowl, they have brought new hope to some of the most desolate outposts in the league, places like Cincinnati, Detroit and Arizona "One thing those teams have shown everybody in the league," Donahoe said, "is that it can be done." Greg Garber is a senior writer for ESPN.com. |
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