Back when everyone walked 12 miles to school, computers were the size of
railroad cars and Los Angeles had a football team, the balance of power in
the National Football League shifted slowly, if at all.
Dynasties lasted 10, sometimes 20 years. So did coaches. And stadiums.
|  | | Kurt Warner didn't rest on his laurels in the offseason. |
That's not the case anymore. In fact, as the NFL embarks on the 2000
season, word is it's considering a name change.
Welcome to the National Free-fall League.
As free agency and the salary cap took hold during the 1990s, the NFL
became increasingly unstable. Now, it's as volatile as a dot.com stock. Teams
routinely go from the second division to the Super Bowl, and right back again.
How unpredictable is it? The Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls, then
skidded to 6-10. The 49ers' 20-year dynasty crumbled in one 4-12 season. The
Falcons went from 7-9 to 14-2 (and the Super Bowl) to 5-11. And that's just
in the last two years.
There is no greater example of the NFL's new volatility, however, than the
1999 Rams. In September, they were coming off a 4-12 season and battling the
Bengals to avoid the NFL's worst record of the '90s. In January, they were
16-3 and Super Bowl champions.
But even though the Rams are a young team with a cutting-edge offense, few
are picking them to repeat. Many think they're destined to become this year's
Falcons, a team that had the planets aligned correctly for one glorious
season but will never be heard from again.
It's hard to argue with those who point out that everything went right for
the Rams last year. They stayed injury-free, with the 22 starters missing
only 11 games. They were opportunistic, scoring eight defensive touchdowns.
And one of their multiple big-play threats -- six players scored six or more
touchdowns -- seemingly opened every game with a home run.
However, young teams tend to stay healthy and, unlike the 1999 Falcons,
the 2000 Rams are double-staffed at quarterback and halfback in the event of
injury. Also, defenses cause turnovers when opponents play from behind, and
the Rams' explosive offense forces opponents to do that regularly.
Despite that, doubters remain. Here are five reasons why people think the
Rams are a fluke ... followed by five reasons why they're not.
1. The Rams benefitted from the NFL's notorious last-place schedule.
True, the Rams were in the worst division in the NFL, faced only two teams
with winning records during the regular season and played 16 of their 19
games on artificial turf, which accentuated their speed.
However, while the schedule gets tougher this year, it is only marginally
so. The NFC West isn't going to be much better, especially after preseason
injuries robbed the Panthers and Saints of their offseason momentum. Also,
the Rams will play only five teams that had winning records in 1999 and 11 of
their 16 games will be on turf.
2. Kurt Warner is the next Mark Rypien, a Super Bowl most valuable player who will vanish as quickly as he surfaced.
True, Warner has no NFL track record -- none -- beyond last year's
41-touchdown, 13-interception effort. He even showed signs late in the year
that the league was catching up to him.
However, Warner didn't become mesmerized by his Super Bowl ring during the
offseason. He was proactive, working out diligently and reporting to camp on
time even though his huge contract extension had yet to be finalized.
Besides, the Rams have a more-than-capable backup in Trent Green should
Warner falter.
3. Every NFL champion suffers from post-Super Bowl attrition.
True, the Rams lost three starters -- center Mike Gruttadauria, offensive
tackle Fred Miller and safety Billy Jenkins -- and were stripped of some useful depth by the free-agency wolves.
However, the Rams, who have drafted as well as anyone over the last five
years, are very comfortable with the replacements for all three missing
starters. They also locked up most of 1999's heroes with long-term deals,
meaning the team's core players are either in their prime or approaching it.
4. The Redskins and Buccaneers passed by the Rams during the offseason.
True, Washington and Tampa Bay made more noise during the offseason and
are the favorites in the NFC. The Buccaneers landed wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson for their offense, the Redskins signed the Pro Football Hall of Fame class, circa 2006, for their defense.
However, the Rams have proven what they can do; those teams haven't. In
Tampa Bay, Shaun King hasn't shown he can consistently get the ball to Johnson. In Washington, the defense hasn't shown it can put egos aside and play together. Besides, how many Super Bowl champions have the luxury of remaining the underdog?
5. Coach Dick Vermeil's retirement just days after the Super Bowl will hurt the team's esprit de corps.
True, Vermeil's teary-eyed, emotional approach and patient, veteran staff
were perfect for the young Rams.
However, the key to the Super Bowl season was the high-octane offense
designed by coordinator Mike Martz. It put up 526 points, the third-highest
total in NFL history, and let the smallish defense play from ahead most of
the time. With Martz now the head coach, the offense won't change. And
neither will the Rams.
Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.
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