Here's my quick read on the four wild-card games this weekend:
Buffalo at Tennessee
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, ABC
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| The Bills will try to control the tempo with the running of Antowain Smith. |
Matchup to watch: Bills RT Robert Hicks vs. Titans DE Jevon Kearse
This matchup is especially critical in light of Buffalo's switch at quarterback from Doug Flutie to Rob Johnson. Kearse is not only a sack master, but he also forces fumbles and is a great playmaker. He comes from the defensive left side -- the offense's right side. He can jump up and knock down the ball. All-around, he can be a major problem for the Bills. Johnson is less mobile than Flutie, but he can move around.
Stat to watch: Rushing yardage
Buffalo will have to run the football to take pressure off Johnson. The Titans need to run Eddie George to help out their play-action passing game. How well each team runs the ball will be critical to the outcome.
Darkhorse player: Bills TE Jay Riemersma
He can make a big difference on third-down conversions and in the red-zone area.
Edge: Titans
Tennessee will win the game because the Titans have consistency on offense. They will have Yancey Thigpen back in the lineup, a receiver they have badly needed. Steve McNair is healthy and playing well. The Titans also have one of the best offensive lines in football. The Titans are playing the best football in the league right now.
In addition, Buffalo is going through a quarterback change. The Bills are built on speed, and they are playing on grass. That will make a difference in favor of Tennessee, which has the added advantage of playing at home. The Bills defense, ranked first in the league, isn't designed to give up big plays. Tennessee doesn't necessarily want to take chances at big plays. The Titans have a patient offense, so the Bills defense won't upset them.
Detroit at Washington
Saturday, 4:05 p.m. ET, ABC
Matchup to watch: Redskins CBs Champ Bailey and Darrell Green vs. Lions WRs Johnnie Morton and Germane Crowell
Detroit will need to throw the football to be successful. Gus Frerotte must throw for more than 300 yards -- and he can do that against the Redskins, who have allowed an average of 230.8 passing yards a game. Crowell and Morton are Frerotte's playmakers on the outside going against two solid corners. I don't see Frerotte being under a lot of pressure from the Redskins' pass rush.
Stat to watch: Stephen Davis' rushing yards
Brad Johnson seems to be a more accurate and comfortable passer when he can throw off the play-action fake. Five weeks ago, when Davis got hurt against Detroit, it really changed what Washington was able to do on offense. Davis is the key. He must carry the load for the Redskins. From Davis' lead, the rest of the offense follows.
Darkhorse player: Lions RB Ron Rivers
Rivers will be the sleeper in the game. He ran well early in the year before getting hurt. Detroit will need a ground game to keep the Redskins off the field.
Edge: Redskins
Washington is healthier than Detroit, and the Redskins defense is playing better football. As a team, the Redskins are starting to play with more confidence.
Dallas at Minnesota
Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET, Fox
Matchup to watch: Cowboys CB Deion Sanders vs. Vikings WR Cris Carter
Nobody is talking about Randy Moss and Deion Sanders playing one another. If Sanders is covering Moss, that means Dallas will give Carter the opportunity to run around the field. I would double-cover Moss, and single-cover Carter with Sanders. Whoever Sanders covers is the key. So much of what the Vikings do revolves around their passing attack. I don't believe they will be able to run the ball effectively against the Cowboys. Minnesota will look for plays to come out of the passing game. I would always take my No. 1 corner, put him on the No. 2 receiver and then double-cover the No. 1 receiver. In this case, Carter, the No. 2 receiver, doesn't have the ability to get down the field like Moss, who has become a much bigger part of the offense over the last month.
Stat to watch: Emmitt Smith's rushing yards
At the time Smith broke his hand against the Vikings two months ago, he had 140 yards on 13 carries -- in the first half. I don't know that Minnesota's defense has changed much since then. One change they have made is moving John Randle inside. That could make a difference in run-stopping, more than pass rushing, because the Cowboys like to run between the tackles and behind Larry Allen and Mark Stepnoski.
Darkhorse player: Cowboys WR Jason Tucker
Troy Aikman has gained a lot more confidence in Tucker, the receiver opposite Raghib Ismail who has caught 11 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks. Everyone knows about Rocket's speed. The Vikings prefer not to play man-to-man coverage. So Tucker will have an opportunity to make plays.
Edge: Cowboys
Minnesota can be a hit-and-miss offense. If the Cowboys can get to Jeff George, they can create turnovers and problems. Dallas, as an overall team, is much more consistent.
Miami at Seattle
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Matchup to watch: Seahawks CB Shawn Springs vs. Dolphins WR Tony Martin
The Dolphins will need to make some big plays in the passing game because they can't run the football. They will have to rely on Dan Marino, who hasn't played well lately. Marino is the key player, and he will have to play well. Miami must get ball to its speed receiver in Martin. I don't know if Seattle is potent enough now on offense to score a lot of points. But I do know Marino can't give the Seahawks a short field.
Stat to watch: Seattle's yards after the catch
The Seahawks receivers aren't that physical. Miami's cornerbacks are. The Dolphins will play man-to-man because that is what they do. Yards after the catch are the key to the offense Seattle runs. It also is key to baiting the man-to-man coverages.
Darkhorse player: Ahman Green
Ricky Watters, if he plays, will probably be hobbled. I like Green, because he is more powerful and faster than Watters. If Watters doesn't play, Green could be a huge factor.
Edge: Seahawks
They are at home. I'm looking for Jon Kitna to play a more consistent game. Defensively, both teams are good. Offensively, Seattle can right the ship quicker. Remember, the 12th man started in Seattle. The crowd will pose a communication problem for the Dolphins offense.