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ESPN.com
Why each of the final four expects to advance
By Len Pasquarelli
and John Clayton

ESPN.com

Editor's note: Which two of the final four teams will end up in the Super Bowl at San Diego on Jan. 26? ESPN.com senior NFL writers Len Pasquarelli and John Clayton offer five reasons why each of the remaining four should feel free to make reservations for San Diego. AFC: Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders
Las Vegas immediately established the Raiders as eight-point favorites, and rightfully so. After all, the Titans travelled to the Networks Associates Coliseum on Sept. 29 and were spanked 52-25. But that wasn't the same Titans team that finished the season with an 11-5 record and the AFC's second seed. The Titans secondary was banged up. Eddie George hadn't gotten into any kind of a running groove. The Titans were three games into a four-game losing streak and, at 1-3 at the time, their defense was surrendering 32 points a game. Raiders safety Anthony Dorsett Jr. warned his teammates after the 30-10 victory Sunday over the Jets that the Titans were a more physical team than the Jets and this might be a better fight. If anything, the Raiders left that early-season win over the Titans a little too confident. They followed it up with a 49-31 victory over the Bills and then went on a four-game losing streak. Both teams straightened out their focus and finished strong. The Raiders have won eight of their past nine. The Titans have won 11 of their past 12. For balance, let's present five ways each team can win the AFC title game Sunday. Five reasons the Raiders will win
1. They've got it covered: The Raiders have taken full advantage of the bye week -- their first since the second week of the season -- and are mentally and physically fresh. Cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Tory James were able to play tight man-to-man coverage against the Jets despite suffering broken legs in the final month of the regular season. Though they are missing defensive end Trace Armstrong's pass rushing ability because of a groin injury, the Raiders can match up very well against the Titans' limited wide receiving talents and even provide some effective double coverage on the Titans' most dangerous receiver, Derrick Mason.
Gannon
Gannon

2. Rich and famous: Rich Gannon might be the NFL's quarterback of destiny. He completed more passes in one season (418) than any quarterback in NFL history, and he is adding to his legend as this season's most valuable player. Gannon even threw some rare deep passes in dismantling and almost embarrassing the Jets secondary in Sunday's 30-10 win. Twice he made pump fakes that left Jets safety Damien Robinson lost in the middle of the secondary, leaving Jerry Porter free for a 29-yard touchdown and 50-yard catch. Gannon has all the looks of a quarterback who could also be a Super Bowl MVP. 3. Who is this guy Callahan? The Raiders are a well-coached, diverse team thanks to Bill Callahan and his staff. For a Titans defense, they are hard to prepare for in only seven days. Callahan keeps expanding the formations. On Sunday, he put two receivers -- sometimes even tight end Doug Jolley -- stacked one behind the other on each side of the line of scrimmage, creating confusion for a zone defense. He sometimes uses six and seven offensive linemen on plays to go big on the offensive line. He has plays designed to pass from those big formations. Each week, the Raiders can jump into a pound-it-out-running attack or stay with their specialty -- passing the football. 4. Youthful enthusiasm: As experienced as the Raiders are with their thirty-something-year-old players, many of the young Raiders are coming on at the right time. Porter is emerging as one of the game's more exciting big-play threats. Jolley is a tough tight end to cover on crossing routes. Napoleon Harris is gaining more confidence as a middle linebacker. Outside linebacker Eric Barton, who is on the field almost every down, is one of the most underrated defensive players in the league. 5. Licking their lips: Jerry Rice and Tim Brown sense a Super Bowl in the making. Against the Titans in Week 4, Rice caught seven passes for 144 yards and Brown had six catches for 90. They know they can have big days against the Titans secondary, which had trouble containing the Steelers receivers Saturday night. At home, Rice and Brown are planning on big days before their home fans. Five reasons the Titans will win
1. Get on his back: Steve McNair might not have won the regular season MVP award, but he's clearly one of the most valuable in the playoffs. Before, he used to rely on Eddie George to carry the offense. Not anymore. His ability to scramble and throw deep and just lead has carried the team. McNair might be the NFL's toughest player. He went five weeks without practicing and kept improving as games went along. He's handled injuries that would sideline others and he doesn't even blink. Though voters bypassed him during the regular season, it will be hard to not consider him the most valuable player in the playoffs.
Wycheck
Wycheck

2. The Wycheck factor: The Titans now are causing coverage problems for defenses. For a couple of games, defenses were doubling wide receiver Derrick Mason or tight end Frank Wycheck or both. Against the Steelers, Wycheck drew single-coverage and had his best day of the season catching 10 passes. Knowing that defenses will have to pay more attention to Wycheck could open up more in the passing game for McNair. 3. Run Eddie, run: At some point, Eddie George has to look like the dominating back of the past. Sure, he's been bottled up for only a little more than 3 yards a carry. Sure, he couldn't finish the Saturday night game against the Steelers because of a concussion. But George is a warrior and a big-game player. McNair is good enough to get Tennessee a second-half lead, and George is good enough to bring home a victory. 4. Defense lining up for victory: The Titans' defensive line can give any team problems, particularly at the end. Jevon Kearse, even with his availability limited during the playoffs coming off his broken foot, can be a disruptive force. Kevin Carter draws double-team blocking on his side, and that allows some of the other linemen to get single attention. Don't be surprised if defensive tackles John Thornton or Albert Haynesworth step up in a big game to collapse the middle of the Raiders offensive line. 5. Isn't that special: The Titans won't make the same mistakes they made in their last game against the Raiders, a 52-25 loss. They fell behind, 21-0, in the first quarter because of a couple of special teams breakdowns. Phillip Buchanon had an 83-yard punt return for a touchdown, and Terry Kirby had a 79-yard touchdown on a punt return. For one, the Raiders don't have that kind of fire-power on special teams anymore, with Buchanon and Kirby both out. Second, the Titans special teams have tightened up. NFC: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles
Unfazed and basically unflappable, and despite a track record of developing asthma every time they venture into the unfriendly confines of Veterans Stadium, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers exited their locker room Sunday night convinced they are headed to Super Bowl XXXVI. And we don't mean as spectators. "The time has come," said free safety Dexter Jackson. "Whatever happened at that place in the past is out of our heads." There are those who will counter, of course, that it's the Tampa Bay players who are out of their heads in suggesting they can buck history and advance to the first Super Bowl in franchise history. For sure, the mere mention of the Philadelphia Eagles and Veterans Stadium, where the Bucs have not scored an offensive touchdown in their past three meetings, has been more than enough to send Tampa Bay veterans into hives. But the Bucs are eager for another shot at the Eagles and, not surprisingly, Philadelphia is ready to add another Tampa Bay notch to its belt. It remains to be seen if history is again repeated. "To truly have a legacy," said Bucs quarterback Brad Johnson, "you have to win a Super Bowl. For us to win a Super Bowl, it's simple, we have to go to Philadelphia and do something we haven't been able to do before." Here is a look at how each team can win the NFC title game next Sunday: Five reasons the Buccaneers will win
1. The hidden vigorish: Unless you grew up in Pittsburgh during the long and memorable tenure of Pirates radio play-by-play announcer Bob Prince, as eccentric as he was brilliant, chances are you've never heard of this one. But the rationale of Prince, known as "The Gunner," was simple. He felt the more often a team lost, the closer it came to winning, and the Bucs have to be creeping pretty close to winning a conference championship, right? You might choose to call it destiny or karma, or whatever, but this team is way too good (albeit underachieving) to go without a title before time and the salary cap force it to be dismantled. This will mark the Bucs' second NFC title game in four years. Maybe this is the year the planets are aligned in the right order for the Bucs.
Brooks
Brooks

2. The linebacker corps isn't just a one-man gang: When you perform in the shadow of weakside linebacker Derrick Brooks, the NFL defensive player of the year for 2002, it's pretty easy to go unnoticed. But middle linebacker Shelton Quarles and strongside 'backer Alshermond Singleton, even backup Nate Webster, are all solid players. Like every Tampa Bay defender, these guys are all sure tacklers, and when they wrap up a running back or a tight end, it's like watching a cattle-roping competition. Maybe more important, it is a quick and active linebacker group, one that drops and covers well. The Bucs don't blitz much, so coordinator Monte Kiffin asks his linebackers to get out and cover in the "flat" and "swing" areas, and they can run with the tailbacks circling from the backfield. Brooks is quick enough to get deep with some wide receivers but it is also the ability of Quarles to turn and run to the deep middle that contributes so much to the success of the famous "Cover 2" scheme the Bucs employ. 3. The big, fat Buddha in the middle and his unknown buddy on the outside: You love him, you hate him, you can't live without his particular gift for loud and ugly trash-talking. Yep, defensive tackle Warren Sapp is simply one of those guys who elicits disparate emotions. But he is an emotion unto himself and, in what might be his last best shot at grabbing the brass (Super Bowl) ring, one can assume No. 99 will be pretty geeked up for a chance at redemption. Don't be surprised if the Bucs move Sapp more over the center, because Eagles snapper Hank Fraley is clearly undersized, and might need some double-team assistance in such circumstances. Unheralded left end Greg Spires, a first-year starter, was always regarded as a situational, upfield pass rush guy. But over the first five seasons of an itinerant career, he posted only 13½ sacks, never more than six in a campaign. Sometimes a player just needs to get to the right situation, or with the right franchise, to blossom. For the undersized Spires, the Bucs were that team. He had just 3½ sacks during the regular season, but fit the chase-the-ball mold Tampa Bay covets, and played the run better than anyone thought he could. 4. Tight end Ken Dilger: Despite being selected to his first Pro Bowl game in 2001, the eight-year veteran was cut loose by the Indianapolis Colts, who felt they could no longer justify a big salary cap number for a player who seemed to be getting increasingly brittle. Bad mistake by the Colts, who still have Marcus Pollard, but failed to adequately replace Dilger this season. A big, physical target who knows how to uncover in the short "hook" zones, he provided Brad Johnson a dependable presence between the hash marks. To be an effective West Coast-style passing team, an offense has to control the intermediate middle of the field. Dilger isn't a dominant presence but he caught 34 passes for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is replaced at times in "red zone" situations by Rickey Dudley, but knows how to create just enough separation in tight spaces to be effective around the goal line. The Eagles defense has three Pro Bowl players, but strong safety Blaine Bishop isn't one of them. He might have his hands full attempting to cover Dilger on early downs. 5. Secondary matters: Of the Bucs' 31 interceptions in 2002, defensive backs had 20 of them, led by cornerback Brian Kelly. The fifth-year veteran stole eight passes, five more than he had totaled in his first four campaigns, and he might not have been Tampa Bay's premier coverage player. While Ronde Barber saw his interceptions plummet from 10 in 2001 to just two in 2002, the right cornerback really did have a Pro Bowl caliber season. Maybe the most remarkable aspect of the secondary, besides its discipline and closing speed, is the overall awareness. Make an overthrow with this bunch, and it's likely someone will be playing center field, ready to take advantage of any miscue. All four starters had at least 2 interceptions and "nickel" corner Dwight Smith, a tough, physical guy who will challenge for more playing time in 2003, had four in a situational role. The unit benefits from a strong rush generated by the front four, and the fact the linebackers are used so much in underneath zones, and won't face any game-breakers Sunday. Five reasons the Eagles will win
1. A corner-copia of coverage guys: One huge deficiency in the Tampa Bay pass game is the dearth of a legitimate vertical threat and, against an Eagles secondary that loves to get up in people's faces and play "press" coverage, that represents a monumental lacking. Yeah, the Bucs have bigger wideouts in Keyshawn Johnson, Keenan McCardell and a resurgent Joe Jurevicius, but none of those receivers will scare the Philadelphia cornerbacks. The consensus around the NFL is that perennial Pro Bowler Troy Vincent has slipped a notch, and that is probably the case. But Vincent still ranks among the top corners in the game and partner Bobby Taylor, who had a 39-yard interception return for a touchdown against the Falcons on Saturday night, is playing up to his enormous physical potential. Both the starters are strong enough to redirect a receiver and knock him off his route. But the Eagles also have great depth and, outside of maybe only Miami, no one can put three or four corners of such quality on the field. Al Harris has always been a tough "nickel" player with a big-play mentality and the '02 draft added some youngsters who will follow in the same mind-set.
Pinkston
Pinkston

2. The thin man and snake-eyes: Third-year wide receiver Todd Pinkston, basically think Twiggy modeling shoulder pads, has truly emerged as a "go to" player for quarterback Donovan McNabb this season. There is always the chance the reed-thin Pinkston will break in two if he absorbs too big a hit, and he has been battling injuries over the second half of the year, and isn't yet 100 percent. At the same time, Pinkston has deceptive speed and runs well after the catch. He is particularly effective on crossing routes, works the hashes well, and can sprint through a scattered secondary. The centerpiece of the offense, tailback Duce Staley, finally seems to have put behind him the foot injury of three seasons ago. As good a runner as he is, particularly on the "stretch" off-tackle play, "Snake Eyes" Staley always has been a very good receiver. When McNabb is really into a quick rhythm, it is often because he is using Staley, who can catch the ball up the field, as well as in the flat. If Pinkston and Staley are making plays, it could be a long day for the Tampa Bay defense. 3. On-line, in-line, outline: Of all the units still in the playoffs, the Tampa Bay offensive line is arguably the weakest, and has been a problem area for the entire season. It's a pretty good bet this flawed quintet isn't going to become a Seven Blocks of Granite before game time. It's a better bet the Philadelphia defensive staff knows precisely how porous the Bucs line really can be. So in addition to all the blitzing certain to be a component of the Philadelphia defensive game plan, expect the Eagles staff to stress to its charges that they can win most of the individual battles, too. High energy right defensive end Hugh Douglas, the best Philly sack threat, mis-matched against Tampa Bay left offensive tackle Roman Oben? That's one the Bucs coaches might not want to think much about. And the Eagles tackle tandem of Corey Simon and Darwin Walker, a couple superb two-way players with enough quickness to get through the gaps and into the backfield, figure to be too much for the Bucs interior line. If the Eagles front four has its usual game, Tampa Bay quarterback Brad Johnson could end up looking like a chalk outline. If it's truly what's up front that counts, the Eagles should have a wide advantage in the trench warfare. 4. No, not that Jimmy Johnson: The game will feature two of the best, if unappreciated, defensive coordinators in Monte Kiffin of Tampa Bay and the Eagles' Jim Johnson. With apologies to the brilliant Kiffin, we have to tout Johnson a little, because his aggressive scheme is so unusual. Johnson always wants to force the issue, to attack the line of scrimmage, and his weapon of choice is the blitz. Johnson will send defenders from every exotic angle imaginable, and some never before seen, like his use of the "cornerback fire" from both sides. Because there is nothing new under the NFL sun, it might have been utilized before, but not until the 2001 opener against the St. Louis Rams had this scribe, in 25 years of covering the NFL, ever seen both corners blitzing at once. Apparently, neither had St. Louis quarterback Kurt Warner, who froze at the sight, and was sacked. This is a defense that had 12 defenders with at least one sack, and Johnson gives everyone a chance to compress the pocket and chase down the quarterback. As noted above, the Tampa Bay offensive line is a mess (even with super line coach Bill Muir), and Johnson will definitely try to confuse the Bucs' pass-blocking schemes. 5. Yo', Adrian and everyone else, beware all you who enter here: It's old. It's run-down. And there are more rats running around than you'd find in a CDC research laboratory. So, the Philly cheesesteak place down the street in good, ol' South Philly? No way. We're talking, of course, about Veterans Stadium, basically a cesspool with plastic seats. If the Bucs players suggest they don't fear the place, which will be demolished after the Philadelphia Phillies upcoming campaign, they are probably lying. The loyal Eagles fans are, uh, vociferous. If there is snow on the ground, everyone in pewter will become an unwitting target, and there are times the fans are even more accurate than Donovan McNabb. OK, so maybe the denizens of the infamous "700 level" are too far removed from the action to be a factor. The rest of the leather-lunged partisans will more than make up for it. It's simply a tough place to play, one where the fans will probably stand the entire contest. Oops, we almost forgot. The surface at "The Vet" is annually voted by league players as the worst in the NFL. When they mention a "blowout" in South Philadelphia, they're just as often talking about a torn knee ligament as a lopsided Eagles victory.






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