Thursday, August 31
NFC: Rams and Lions? Oh, my!




Cris Carter, Vikings wide receiver and NFL elder statesman, was parked in the visitor's locker room at Mile High Stadium, home of the two-time Super Bowl champion Broncos, trying to make sense of it all.

Cris Carter
Cris Carter and the Vikings are back in the race after a 2-4 start.
It was a fruitless endeavor, however, because the NFL in 1999 simply makes no sense.

"This is a funny year in football," Carter said. "Green Bay comes here and gets killed. We come in here and beat 'em. We go to Green Bay, lose to Green Bay. Week in and week out, you don't know what's going to happen this year."

Indeed, if there is one word that describes the first half of the season, it is unpredictable.

In the NFC, there is no such thing as a dominant team. This from a conference that practically invented the concept over the last 20 years. Instead, the NFC is now loaded down with fading dynasties and one-year wonders.

In this era of free agency and its evil twin, the salary cap, NFL rosters are paper thin. As a result, parity rules. Every good team is seemingly one key injury away from being 2-6. The determining factor for success has become strength of schedule, a concept that favors second-division teams.

If you don't believe it, just look at the first nine weeks of the season. In the short span of two months, the traditional NFC order has been shaken to its very foundation.

The perennial powers are slipping at an alarming rate. The traditional doormats are on the rise. Some teams are strong on defense, but their offenses can't find the end zone. Others roll up points with inpugnity but can't stop anyone.

Only two teams in the conference -- the Rams and Lions -- have any semblance of completeness. Not surprisingly, they have the best records in the NFC at 6-2. Of course, they were a combined 9-23 last year.

Nowhere is the upside-down nature of the NFC more apparent than in the performance of the traditional powers. Last year, the Cowboys, 49ers, Packers, Vikings and Falcons had a combined record of 62-18. All had at least 10 wins, none finished lower than second in their division.

FIVE GAMES TO WATCH
ESPN.com's Tom Oates picks five games in the second half that will have a big impact on the NFC race:

Packers at Cowboys, Nov. 14: Both teams are 4-4 and in third place in their divisions, meaning the loser in this battle of recent Super Bowl winners will be history.

Rams at 49ers, Nov. 21: If the Rams can reprise their earlier 42-20 victory in St. Louis, the NFC West title will be theirs, and the 49ers will be finished for good.

Giants at Redskins, Nov. 21: The Redskins hit the Giants with 50 points in the first meeting. None of the Giants' other seven opponents has topped 17.

Giants at Cowboys, Jan. 2: Someone has to win the pitiful NFC East, and it could very well be the winner of this game. A 0-0 tie isn't out of the question.

Lions at Vikings, Jan. 2: With the Lions a surprising 6-2 and the Vikings coming on strong, first place in the NFC Central will probably be at stake on the last day of the season.

This year, the combined record of those five is 18-24. Only one, the Vikings at 5-4, has a winning record.

Things don't look much different at the top of the conference. The division leaders -- Redskins and Giants in the East, Lions in the Central, Rams in the West -- have a combined record of 22-10.

Last year, no team in that group finished with a winning record and none finished higher than third in their division. Their combined mark was 23-41.

But the NFC's topsy-turvy season isn't limited to intramurals. The conference that once owned the Super Bowl like the Yankees own the Braves is winning only one of every three games against the AFC this season.

The unpredictability of the NFC should make for riveting, though flawed entertainment during the second half of the season and the conference playoffs. That's the way it is when any team can beat any other.

However, that unpredictability should end right about the time the NFC champion has to play the AFC representative in the Super Bowl. For the NFC, there won't be anything funny about that.

Here's an overview of the conference's landscape entering the second half:

Playoff locks
Rams (6-2): Sure, they've lost two in a row. But those losses came in close games on the road to the Titans and Lions, a pair of 6-2 teams. The multidimensional offense hasn't been stopped all year, and the no-name defense is better than it has been given credit for, especially against the run. With a remaining schedule that includes only one opponent (Giants) with a winning record, home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs is virtually guaranteed.

Lions (6-2): Coach Bobby Ross lost Barry Sanders to early retirement, but the Lions, unbelievably, are better without him. Unlike recent Detroit teams, this one has heart, leadership and togetherness. It also has an emerging quarterback in Charlie Batch, a quality relief pitcher in Gus Frerotte and a front seven on defense that rivals any in the NFL. The NFC Central schedule gets more difficult from here on out -- at Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, at Minnesota -- but the Lions' fast start has given them first dibs on at least a wild-card berth.

Looking good
Vikings (5-4): The 2-4 start would have sunk a lesser team, but the quarterback switch from Randall Cunningham to Jeff George has re-energized the dormant offense. Three wins in a row and a manageable schedule down the stretch mean the Vikings should make a run at the Lions for the division title. However, the defense is porous and George's difficult personality has always prevented him from being a winner over the long haul.

Redskins (5-3): As good as Norv Turner's offense is, and it is very good, Mike Nolan's defense is worse. Fortunately for the Redskins, this is the NFL of the 1990s and not the 1980s. Back then, defense won championships. Today, the name of the game is offense, and the explosive Redskins are capable of winning a shootout with anyone. The next five games, including the Eagles twice and the Giants and Cardinals at home, will make or break their season. If the Redskins go 4-1, the playoffs beckon.

On the bubble
Giants (5-3): Coach Jim Fassel's offense is no better in year three than it was in year one, but the defense has been so dominant the team still produced a winning first-half record. Unfortunately, the second-half schedule is loaded with high-scoring teams such as the Colts, Redskins, Rams and Vikings, and the Giants aren't going to win any shootouts. Still, no team with a defense this good can be counted out in the weak NFC East.

FULL NFC COVERAGE
This is a sneak peek at Tom Oates' NFC notebook, which is part of the Insider area of ESPN.com.

Click here to sign up to get Oates' coverage throughout the second half of the season and the NFL playoffs.

Packers (4-4): So far, first-year coach Ray Rhodes has not been the catalyst for a stagnant team that general manager Ron Wolf thought he would be. There's still plenty of talent, but the Packers have lost their last two games, both at home, and might be 1-7 were it not for three miracle comebacks by Brett Favre. A difficult schedule, which includes games at Dallas, San Francisco, Chicago, Minnesota and Tampa Bay, won't help the Pack get back on track.

Buccaneers (4-4): Trent Dilfer or Eric Zeier? Eric Zeier or Trent Dilfer? Sounds like a quarterback controversy to me. But the real question in Tampa is this: Is either one of them good enough to yank the offense out of the Dark Ages and take an otherwise strong team to the playoffs? The schedule is favorable, with division powers Minnesota, Detroit and Green Bay all coming to play in the Florida heat in December, but the quarterbacking isn't.

Cowboys (4-4): After starting out 3-0, the Cowboys have lost three of their last four, and the Triplets are showing their age. Michael Irvin's career is in jeopardy due to a spine injury, Emmitt Smith has a broken hand and Troy Aikman has left the last two games with concussions. What does it all mean? Without their stars, the Cowboys are out of the playoffs. Their best hope is a tailor-made schedule that includes five home games and two winnable games -- Cardinals, Saints -- on the road.

Long shots
Bears (4-5): These aren't Dave Wannstedt's Bears anymore. For one thing, Wannstedt's Bears wouldn't have won at Minnesota and Green Bay. But Dick Jauron's Bears are down to third-stringer Jim Miller at quarterback, so the immediate future isn't pretty. Five of the remaining seven games are against division foes, so if the Bears make the playoffs they're going to have to do it the hard way.

49ers (3-5): The remaining schedule is loaded with teams from the weak NFC West, which normally would make the stretch drive a walk in the park for the 49ers. But without Steve Young at quarterback and with the leaky defense allowing 29 points a game, the question becomes: Do the 49ers have any business being in the playoffs anyway?

Panthers (3-5): Two games against the Rams and road games at Green Bay and Pittsburgh virtually guarantee this inconsistent team four more losses, and a 7-9 record won't make the playoffs, not even in 1999.

Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal writes a weekly NFC column that appears every Thursday during the regular season.






ALSO SEE
AFC: Many could be contenders

Garber: On any given Sunday ...

Mort Report: Not a pretty picture

NFL Question of the Week

Focal Point: Is parity good or bad?

ESPN.com experts' midseason awards

PFW's midseason awards

PFW's Midseason All-Pro Team

Scales all tipped toward AFC

ESPN.com's NFL Power Rankings