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 Thursday, November 25
Panthers on the right path
 
By Joe Theismann
Special to ESPN.com

 While the Atlanta Falcons have been a disappointment, the up-and-coming Carolina Panthers have played good football and will continue to get better as the season goes on.

Tshimanga Biakabutuka
Tim Biakabutuka is averaging an NFL-best 6.9 yards per carry.
When a new coach is hired, it takes time for a football team to play the way the coach prefers. The Panthers defense is getting more comfortable with what George Seifert wants to do, and the offense appears to be in good shape.

Steve Beuerlein has really settled in, becoming an efficient quarterback. Now that the Panthers are getting a quality rushing attack from Tim Biakabutuka, they can add more balance to their passing game.

Wesley Walls continues to be a standout at tight end, catching passes downfield and proving his worth. Muhsin Muhammad is turning into a big-time receiver, and Rae Carruth, if he can stay healthy, gives them speed on the outside. The offensive line is Carolina's biggest problem. They built out the line with some marquee players, young talented players who can develop into future stars.

The Falcons, however, have experienced three key problems: a season-ending injury to Jamal Anderson, the questionable status of Chris Chandler from week to week, and the free-agent loss of Tony Martin, eliminating the big-play threat they had last year.

You can't compare the Falcons to last year's team. The offense has trouble with consistent production. Defensively, they are still solid and continue to make plays. But the Falcons are small up front, making them susceptible against the run. If their offense fails to generate big plays and establish a lead, then the defense is restricted, unable to apply pressure like it should. They are not very big up front, which means that teams can run on them. And if their offense can't get some big plays and get ahead of people, then the defense can't get loose and apply pressure.

Every game the Falcons play becomes a 60-minute test to avoid mistakes. They have to count on the defense to keep them in the game. Morten Andersen has struggled, not helping with the kicking game. Every area that was strong a year ago hasn't been near as good this year, especially on offense.

Here are the keys to Sunday night's game for each team:

Atlanta Falcons
1. Turnovers not tolerated: Avoiding turnovers is the biggest factor for the Falcons, who rank 30th in the league with a minus-11 turnover ratio. Last Sunday, they made one turnover too many and lost 19-10 at Tampa Bay. They were driving for a game-winning score against and ended up throwing an interception that Donnie Abraham returned for a touchdown for the Bucs.

2. Getting up early: The Falcons must push the ball down the field and make some plays in the passing game to get themselves a lead. They are trying to find ways to get Tim Dwight the football, but when you have to count on a 5-foot-9 player to be the big offensive playmaker, you have a problem. He is most effective as a kick returner. As a receiver, he would be a great player to use in a three-receiver set. He is just not physical enough to play the position every down. He will also get the ball out of the backfield, as he did last week. He has become the player who needs to make it happen for them on offense.

3. Shut down the run: It sounds repetitive, but that's the way football is. If they can slow Biakabutuka and force the ball to be in Beuerlein's hands all the time, it will become a lot easier for that defense to put pressure on the passer. Rich Brooks is a great defensive coordinator who can find ways to pressure the quarterback. But if Carolina can run the football and control the line of scrimmage, then Atlanta will have problems stopping the Panthers or getting to Beuerlein.

Carolina Panthers
1. Run the ball: The Panthers are a much better offensive team when Biakabutuka is healthy and in the lineup. In the last four full games he has played, he has averaged 112 yards rushing -- and the Panthers have gone 3-1.

2. Stop the big play: The Carolina defense must identify where Dwight is at all times. Terance Mathis will make plays, but he shouldn't hurt the Panthers with his speed. The Falcons use running backs by committee, with Ken Oxendine and Byron Hanspard, neither of whom will go the distance. Keeping that in mind, they must concentrate on keeping the Falcons to short gains. The Panthers must be wary of tight end O.J. Santiago because a linebacker like Kevin Greene can't cover him in the open field.

3. Thrive on third down: Third-down conversions are very important to the Panthers. They are satisfied with long, time-consuming drives, and Beuerlein has been comfortable in that role. He moves around well and can make a play with his legs. Walls is a huge factor in their third-down efficiency. Look for Beuerlein to get him the ball at least six times. Walls going against a linebacker or a safety is a matchup that favors Carolina.

Former NFL quarterback Joe Theismann works as a game analyst for ESPN's Sunday Night Football. He breaks down the Sunday night matchup every week for ESPN.com.

 


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