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Thursday, November 21
 
Balanced foes trying to stay atop their divisions

By Joe Theismann
Special to ESPN.com

It may be late and people may have to go to work the next day, but don't go to sleep before the fourth quarter when the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos meet on Sunday night (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET).

Among the many similarities between the two teams, the Colts (6-4) and the Broncos (7-3) are strong finishers. Indianapolis has scored 93 (44.7 percent) of their points in the fourth quarter, while Denver has scored 93 (37.5 percent). In other words, expect a 60-minute football game -- and drink extra Cup o' Joe on Monday morning.

Theismann's Keys
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Offense: Run, then gun -- The Colts have gotten back to running the ball effectively, which is the basis of their offense. The running game allows Peyton Manning to run his play-action and take the deep shots with Marvin Harrison. During the Colts' recent three-game losing streak, Manning had opportunities to make big plays, but he didn't. Now he is hitting them, and he's getting help from the running attack.
Defense: Stop the run -- The Colts have to shut down the Broncos' running game and bring pressure on Steve Beuerlein. They can't allow him to sit back and pick their defense apart. He's not as mobile as Brian Griese.

DENVER BRONCOS
Offense: Pound with Portis -- Shanahan, like Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore, likes to base his offense off the running game. He will move Beuerlein, use deep bootlegs and run deep play-action. That will give Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey time to get down the field. But the Broncos have to run the ball first, and Clinton Portis has been terrific.
Defense: Focus on Harrison -- The Broncos must figure out a way to take Harrison away from Manning. Moore makes no pretense about Harrison being the go-to guy. Although the Colts ran against the Eagles and the Cowboys, I don't think they will have success running against Denver. The Broncos are more stout up front and have the fastest group of linebackers in the NFL. The biggest concern is limiting Harrison's touches.

Both teams are coming off good wins -- Denver over Seattle and Indianapolis over Dallas. People may scoff at the Colts' win over Dallas, especially since the Cowboys' offense is so poor. But defensively, the Cowboys are ranked third in the league, and the game was tied at 3-3 for a long time before the Colts scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Plus, the Colts have to feel great about how they performed the previous week at Philadelphia.

The Broncos and the Colts have a lot at stake as co-leaders of their respective divisions. Indianapolis is tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South, and Denver is even with San Diego in the AFC West. But the Broncos are pressing on without starting quarterback Brian Griese, who is sidelined with a sprained left knee.

But that is why coach Mike Shanahan signed Steve Beuerlein a year ago -- in case Griese got hurt. And last week after Griese went down, Beuerlein came in and threw two passes, both for touchdowns, as the Broncos scored 21 points in the fourth quarter.

Around the league, we've seen the value of having a capable No. 2 quarterback. Second-string quarterbacks never like to be called backups. They would rather call themselves "1a," with the quarterback being a "1." If the No. 1 quarterback goes down, the "1a" quarterback must be able to play as well as the No. 1 or the team won't win.

Marc Bulger's value has skyrocketed since he came in for Kurt Warner and won five games for the Rams. Besides Bulger, there are other examples of teams not skipping a beat following a quarterback change, like Tom Brady replacing Drew Bledsoe in New England last year and Tommy Maddox tooking over for Kordell Stewart in Pittsburgh this season. Denver will be looking for the same impact from Beuerlein until Griese returns.

With Beuerlein, the Broncos should stay with the same game plan. Griese has some mobility, but it's not like the Broncos will be missing Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick or Steve McNair, quarterbacks who can take off and run. Beuerlein proved in Carolina (where he threw for 4,436 and 36 TDs in 1999) that he can be an incredibly hot pocket passer.

The Denver offense suits Beuerlein because the Broncos run a deep-drop offense. For example, in last week's Sunday night game, Rich Gannon and Tom Brady were working from five to seven yards behind the line of scrimmage. Griese was back at nine. Beuerlein is another deep-drop quarterback, and with the quality he has at receiver, he has an opportunity to make big plays.

Both teams have explosive offenses that have strong running games and are prolific at throwing the football, especially in play-action. Both have a star receiver -- Rod Smith in Denver and Marvin Harrison, the NFL's leading receiver, in Indianapolis. In the backfield, the Broncos have a strong Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate in Clinton Portis, while the Colts last week welcomed the return of a healthy Edgerrin James, who had a 100-yard day against Dallas.

Defensively, the Broncos have been among the league's best all season and lead the NFL against the run, while the Colts are just beginning to settle in. They have only given up 16 points the last two weeks. Against the Redskins three weeks ago, the Colts didn't hold up well defensively, but they are beginning to get players back healthy. It will be important if defensive tackle Josh Williams (questionable with a foot injury) can play.

It's no coincidence that the Colts defense has surged since they inserted rookie defensive end Dwight Freeney as a starter two weeks ago. All he has done is produce three sacks and four forced fumbles the last two weeks. We tend to forget that this is Tony Dungy's first year with the Colts. His defense, under coordinator Ron Meeks, is beginning to evolve, as are others around the league with new coaches, like Johnnie Lynn with the Giants.

On special teams, both teams have strong kickers. The Colts' Mike Vanderjagt is the most accurate kicker in NFL history, and the Broncos' Jason Elam has a great leg and has generally been reliable. Yet both are struggling from 40-49 yards. Vanderjagt has made only three of eight, and Elam has hit four of nine.

Their kicking struggles have to be a concern, especially when the Colts and the Broncos are two evenly matched teams. And if you watch long enough Sunday night, Elam or Vanderjagt may be the ones determining the outcome.

A game analyst for ESPN's Sunday Night Football, former NFL QB Joe Theismann won a Super Bowl and a league MVP award.






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