This is a monumental game with home-field ramifications featuring teams with different styles. The Oakland Raiders (9-4) are as hot as it gets throwing the ball, and the Miami Dolphins (8-5) are as hot as it gets running the ball.
QB Rich Gannon's efficiency is the key for Oakland, while RB Ricky Williams keys a devastating ground game for Miami. Gannon has posted 10 300-yard games this season, an NFL record. Williams has posted back-to-back 200-yard games. By the way, the Dolphins haven't had a running back who can carry them in December since, well, Larry Csonka.
If the Raiders win, they'll maintain their one-game lead in the race for AFC home-field advantage. But if the Dolphins win, they'll pull even with Oakland and others in that race (record-wise, at least -- the tiebreakers will sort themselves out as the season winds down).
The Raiders bring a five-game winning streak into this game. The Dolphins have won three of four after losing three straight.
Five keys for the Raiders
1. Stop the Run
The Raiders must commit plenty of defenders to the line of scrimmage and make QB Jay Fiedler beat them. They can't let Williams run wild as he has the past two games. While I don't see him getting 200 yards again this week, the Raiders must focus on limiting his production.
2. No Big Pass Plays
The Raiders need to limit big pass plays, especially to WR Chris Chambers. If Miami wants to throw the ball underneath, fine -- just make the tackle. When the Raiders try to stop the run with eight or nine in the box, they'll need to play man coverage. So the cornerbacks must keep Chambers and company from getting behind them and making big plays.
3. Make It A High-Scoring Game
A high-scoring game in the neighborhood of 30-plus points favors Oakland. The Dolphins aren't equipped to come from behind by, say, three touchdowns. If the Raiders get a significant lead, they would take the Dolphins out of their game -- which is running the ball.
4. O-Line Must Excel
Oakland needs a strong game from its offensive line. When Gannon is in rhythm and has time to throw, the Raiders are tough to beat. Gannon is as good a rhythm passer as there is in the NFL. Gannon told me last week that he credits the Raiders' success to the way his line has played. He said that no other O-line is playing better.
5. Take Away Tight End in Red Zone
Fiedler leans on his tight end, and rookie TE Randy McMichael wasn't the same when Fielder was out with a broken right thumb. Miami offensive coordinator Norv Turner also likes to employ the tight end. The Raiders need to pay attention to McMichael, especially in the red zone.
Five keys for the Dolphins
1. Someone Other Than Ricky Must Make a Play
Someone other than No. 34 needs to make some plays for Miami. In a game like this, with a playoff atmosphere, often an unsung guy needs to step up. Or it could be a big name. But another Dolphin, besides Williams, must make a game-changing play. It might be Fiedler, McMichael, WR Cris Carter or CB Sam Madison.
2. Disrupt Gannon's Rhythm
Oakland's West Coast offense is based on rhythm and timing. If the Dolphins can pressure Gannon, maybe make him double-clutch, he will be disrupted -- and so will his receivers' precise routes. Gannon will use the three-step drop regularly, so the Dolphins must get to him quickly. If they can get a few tipped balls, they might be able to create some turnovers.
3. Win on First Down
The Dolphins must win on first down, both on offense and defense. If Ricky Williams can gain five or six yards on first down and set up favorable second- and third-down situations, that's the game plan they want to follow. Conversely, if the Dolphins can take the Raiders out of their short passing game on first down, their defense can dictate difficult third-down situations for Oakland.
4. Score Early
If the Dolphins can score early, they'll be able to stay with their game plan of winning on the ground. Plus, scoring early and controlling the ball will keep Gannon on the sidelines. In fact, that's Miami's best defense in this game -- keeping Gannon off the field.
5. Force More Than One Turnover
If both teams play their best games, then Oakland probably will win. The Raiders are more explosive offensively, but Miami has the better defense. So I believe the Dolphins need some takeaways to win this game. The special teams also can contribute with a blocked kick or punt, anything to limit opportunities for Oakland's potent offense.
Sean Salisbury covers the NFL for ESPN.
