|
Many scouts and general managers who attended the annual NFL scouting combine two weeks ago in Indianapolis suggested then that the quarterback pool this year is the deepest since a 1999 lottery which included five signal-callers in the first round.
"There are a lot of polished (quarterbacks), guys who have played in the major programs and succeeded, and who certainly look like they have the ability to play at the NFL level," said New York Giants coach Jim Fassel. "It's better, from a depth standpoint, than it has been in a while."
|  | | Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb was the second pick in the 1999 draft. |
In terms of quality, that might be an on-target assessment, especially since, four years later, the class of '99 has produced such modest results. That was the year, of course, in which Tim Couch (Cleveland), Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia) and Akili Smith (Cincinnati) were the first three players off the draft board.
Minnesota chose Daunte Culpepper with the 11th overall pick and then Chicago finished out the quarterback shopping spree with Cade McNown as the 12th overall selection.
Only the 1983 draft that produced Hall of Fame inductee Jim Kelly and two guys who will soon join him in the Canton, Ohio, shrine, Dan Marino and John Elway, had more quarterbacks in the first round, with six. But the '99 draft marked the quickest that five quarterbacks had ever been chosen, with five of the first dozen picks.
No one should expect, from a quantity standpoint, such a rush next month.
In fact, it now appears that some of the high-profile quarterbacks in the '03 draft will be forced to play a waiting game of sorts. It is still seven weeks until the draft and there is much evaluation yet to be completed. But with the way the early portion of the first round appears to be shaping up now, quarterback prospects could be knocked down into the latter reaches of the initial stanza.
In a survey of 11 personnel directors, general managers and college scouting directors, the consensus is that only three quarterbacks will go off the board in the first round. The overriding factor: Owners are wary of investing huge money in quarterbacks, particularly in the top half of the first round, given the recent rate of failure.
"Teams are winning Super Bowls now, for cripes sake, with retreads and journeymen," said one AFC owner. "The recent history shows you don't have to have the first-rounder anymore (to win). Unless you've got yourself a sure thing -- and, trust me, there are no hard guarantees at that position -- it's kind of a caveat emptor mindset anymore."
Even a cursory review of the 1999 draft bears that out. During that draft, former NFL general manager Bobby Beathard predicted that two of the five first-round quarterbacks would probably flop. Three years later, it looks like Beathard was on the low end.
Of the five, only McNabb has achieved true star status, but won't move to the next level until he finally wins a conference championship. Culpepper has had his moments but, at times in 2002, clearly regressed in some areas. Couch isn't even certain he'll go to camp this summer as the Cleveland starter. Smith and McNown are classic busts.
Little wonder the Cincinnati Bengals, who currently own the top pick, would just as soon trade down and make a safer selection than Southern California quarterback Carson Palmer. The problem, as noted in this space before, is that it still takes two to tango, and Cincinnati doesn't have any viable trade partners right now.
But even assuming the Bengals swallow hard and take Palmer or perhaps Marshall quarterback Byron Leftwich with the first overall choice, when does the second-best quarterback go off the board? It is anybody's guess.
With the fourth choice overall, conventional wisdom a month or two ago was that Chicago would snatch a quarterback, but that is no longer the case. The Bears will sign a veteran free agent, use their first-round pick to select a defensive lineman (they love Penn State tackle Jimmy Kennedy) and choose a quarterback in the second go-round.
Arizona (No. 6) might take a quarterback, but it isn't likely. Carolina, with the ninth choice, feels young veteran Jake Delhomme, signed this week, can be its starter and will pass on a quarterback as well. The point is that, in the first round, quarterbacks are apt to slide down the board. The bet now is that just Palmer, Leftwich and Kyle Boller of California, being studied hard by the Green Bay Packers as they evaluate the potential heir apparent to Brett Favre's throne, are chosen in the first round.
That could leave a veritable treasure trove of worthy prospects -- like Chris Simms (Texas), Rex Grossman (Florida) and Dave Ragone (Louisville) -- for second-round bargain hunters. Rest assured, quarterback-needy teams would jump all over the guys in the second round, where they would come at a much cheaper price.
"You give me Simms in the second round right now and I'd be thrilled," said the head coach of an NFC team. "You wouldn't have to rush him into the field like you might a first-rounder, there is far less risk involved, and we feel like he can play. That (second) round could be a real bounty."
Around the league
Speaking of quarterback prospects, those wire reports which contended that University of Miami star Ken Dorsey "wowed" the scouts at the Hurricanes "pro day" workouts on Thursday represented a little hyperbole. Yeah, the folks who evaluate talent were a tad more publicly laudatory of Dorsey, certainly more so than at the combine sessions. But the word from scouts who attended is that, while Dorsey threw better than at Indianapolis, he still lacks basic arm strength and will be a late-round choice at best. Lesson here: When it comes to rating draft prospects, public compliments typically differ dramatically from the private skinny.
| |  | |
| Price |
Maybe the next time the Atlanta Falcons do business with Tom Donahoe, they will realize the Buffalo Bills president/general manager usually doesn't blink first, not when he sets a level on the price of doing business. For two weeks, the Falcons knew they would have to surrender their first-round pick in this year's draft to acquire Bills "franchise" wide receiver Peerless Price in a trade. For two weeks, Atlanta officials waited for Donahoe's asking price to drop, maybe to a second-rounder. Well, they could have waited until hell froze over, because Donahoe wasn't delivering Price for less than his demands. As recently as Friday morning, the Falcons' best offer was their second-round pick in this year's draft or their first-round choice in '04. Not surprisingly, given that they had fallen in love with Price and view him as the deep threat Michael Vick so desperately needed, the Falcons caved. The big winner in the deal, besides Donahoe, was agent Tim McGee. Just before the start of free agency, he turned down a contract offer that averaged $3 million and included a $4.5 million signing bonus. Then the Falcons gave him some leverage by all but conceding they had to get Price, fanning the flames of their fans, creating the expectation he would be delivered. Using those components, McGee got his client a $10 million signing bonus. It marked the second time in two weeks the Falcons anted up $10 million or more in upfront money. That's $10 million the Falcons spent despite the fact they were bidding against themselves for the wide receiver. Maybe it's time to resurrect the nickname given to Falcons owner Arthur Blank last year by some wise-guy media types, when Atlanta overspent for free agents. That moniker: Arthur "Blank Check."
Here was the head-scratcher part about the Falcons' pursuit of Price: At one point during the stalled trade negotiations, an Atlanta official hinted to Donahoe that, if a deal wasn't soon struck, the club would turn its attention to New York Jets restricted free agent receiver Laveranues Coles. Uh, yeah, right. Talk about a transparent threat. The Falcons first would have had to negotiate an offer sheet with Coles, one they felt the Jets would not match, and that would have been no small feat. Second, if the Jets didn't match, the Falcons would have owed New York a first-round pick as compensation for signing Coles. Yep, that same first-round pick they were reluctant to give Donahoe in a straight-up swap for Price. Suffice it to say, it was not very hard to see through that bluff.
Should the Philadelphia Eagles lose defensive right end Hugh Douglas as an unrestricted free agent, don't be surprised if they attempt to sign Green Bay pass rusher Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila to a restricted free agent offer sheet. That is the red-hot rumor, at least, around the league. A three-year veteran, "KGB" is nearly six years younger than Douglas, and at age 25 should have his best football still ahead of him. The Packers have made a qualifying offer at the middle level "tender," of $1.318 million, to retain the right of first refusal. It means that, if any team signs Gbaja-Biamila to an offer sheet, the Packers can match the contract and assume that deal. If they passed, they would receive a first-round draft choice as compensation. The Packers don't have much cap space remaining, but can hardly afford to lose their young star. Defensive end Vonnie Holliday appears poised to depart Green Bay as an unrestricted free agent and last year's big veteran acquisition, defensive end Joe Johnson, is coming off a left triceps injury that limited his 2002 season to just five games. For the Eagles, getting Gbaja-Biamila would be an upgrade over anything Philadelphia is going to be able to add with the 30th choice in the first round. Such an offer sheet scenario would pit two of the best cap managers in the league. Joe Banner of the Eagles would have to craft an offer sheet he felt would be difficult for the Packers to match. And the Packers' Andy Brandt might have to carve out a little more cap room to retain "KGB." The young defensive end, who had never even started a game until last season, has 25½ sacks over the last two years.
On the subject of Douglas, look for him to be signed sometime over the weekend, certainly by Monday at the latest. Douglas visited in Seattle, Kansas City and with the New York Giants, and could sneak in a quick trip to Jacksonville. And while the odds of Douglas returning to the Eagles seem to be on the decline, Philadelphia remains in the hunt, according to the veteran defensive end. The buzz is that Douglas, who once played in New York (for the Jets), wouldn't mind returning to The Big Apple. But there is going to be a lot of money thrown around in Douglas' negotiations over the next couple days and, truth be told, there is no front-runner right now.
Agents would be smart to realize that, just a week into free agency, the market is beginning to dry up already. Just look at the deals getting done at the cornerback position: Dré Bly got an average of $4.9 million, and a $6.5 million signing bonus from Detroit but, once again, the Lions went way over the market. They did the same thing last year in signing wide receiver Az-Zahir Hakim and were roundly criticized by teams around the league. What the Bly deal essentially did was set unrealistic expectations for most of the other cornerbacks in the free-agent pool. Some of them can argue convincingly that their credentials are superior to Bly's resume, but those contentions are likely to fall on deaf ears. The Bly deal was an aberration and cornerbacks looking for work better realize that. Every other corner deal signed so far has come in at the $2 million-per-year range. That is the real level of the market, not Bly's deal, and free agents aiming for the higher contract could find themselves out of work.
| |  | |
| Davis |
While discussing unrealistic expectations, it might be appropriate here to mention former Washington tailback Stephen Davis, who was recently released by the Redskins and is arguably the top back in the market. Seems that Davis felt some team would pay him a $6 million-$7 million signing bonus. But his market is limited to just two teams, Houston and Carolina, and his signing bonus figures to be about half of what he felt it might reach.
New York Jets officials wanted to retain fullback Richie Anderson, but at their price, and there weren't a lot of tears shed when the 10-year veteran signed in Dallas this week as an unrestricted free agent. Anderson had 88 catches in 2000, but just 85 in the ensuing two seasons. He played in only 45 percent of the snaps in 2002, produced only 10 first downs, averaged but 5.7 yards per catch and scored 1 touchdown. And that touchdown came in the final game of the season. Anderson's average yards per catch is a tipoff to his declining skills. He averaged 10.4 yards and 9.7 yards in 1999 and 2000, respectively, then fell off to 6.3 yards in 2001 and 5.7 yards in 2002. New York offensive coordinator Paul Hackett plans to use more backfield sets in 2003 that feature Curtis Martin and talented backup tailback LaMont Jordan and Anderson will not be missed very much.
The Redskins continue to catch plenty of heat for a widely-held belief they overpaid to sign veteran guards Randy Thomas and Dave Fiore. OK, so the price tag for Thomas, $28 million for seven years and a $7 million signing bonus, was extravagant. That said, some teams that coveted Thomas (and there were plenty of them) would have paid something close to that. Fiore got just a four-year deal at $6.33 million, with a $1.5 million signing bonus. And ESPN.com learned that, to protect themselves against the injuries that have hounded Fiore in the past, they wrote "split" base salaries into the first two years of the contract. The "splits" stipulate that, if Fiore is injured, he receives lower base salaries. Washington officials argue that their guards were pitiful in 2002 and that, playing in the NFC East, they need solid guys at the interior positions. Not to rationalize for the Redskins, but they do have a point. Every year they will face the tandem of Corey Simon and Darwin Walker of Philadelphia, La'Roi Glover in Dallas, and Cornelius Griffin of the Giants. Oh, yeah, in addition to signing backup guards Tré Johnson and Lennie Friedman, the Redskins are getting another guard back. ESPN.com has confirmed that David Brandt, an undrafted free agent who actually started one game for the Redskins in 2001 and then retired in '02, is ending his hiatus. Brandt will probably be released by the Redskins when his "unretirement" becomes official and some teams looking for decent young guards ought to take a look at him.
There is a suspicion among some teams that if University of Miami tailback Willis McGahee isn't happy with the round in which he is taken next month, he will simply refuse to sign a contract, spend a full year rehabilitating from his devastating knee injury suffered in the Fiesta Bowl, and go back into the 2004 draft. The theory is that a 100 percent healthy McGahee, even after a one-year hiatus from the game, would still be a top 10 choice in 2004. But potential suitors concerned by that possibility, agent Drew Rosenhaus told ESPN.com this week, need not worry. The tailback, who continues his recovery at an incredible pace, has every intention of signing with the team that chooses him this year. "Going back (into the '04 draft) isn't even an option," Rosenhaus said. "Willis wants to get into the league as quickly as possible. Let's face it, the faster that's accomplished, the faster he gets to a second contract. His mindset is that he will play this season. That's his total focus." Unless some team gambles and takes him in the first round -- there are rumors that Oakland, with consecutive choices at the end of the first stanza, might consider such a luxury -- McGahee's second contract will be more lucrative than the one he signs as a rookie. It will be interesting to see how the team that chooses McGahee handles his ongoing recovery. Several teams have suggested to ESPN.com that they prefer the Hurricanes star simply "redshirt" in 2003. McGahee and Dr. John Uribe, who repaired the catastrophic damage to his knee, still insist the tailback can be back on the field for at least a portion of training camp.
One veteran tailback who knows all about recovering from knee surgery, since he has unfortunately been forced through the ordeal on two occasions, plans to be back in the NFL in 2003. Former Atlanta Falcons star Jamal Anderson, who came close to signing with New England in 2002 and then decided to sit out the season, told ESPN.com this week that he is ready now to author his comeback. Before severe anterior cruciate ligament injuries in 1999 and 2001, Anderson was arguably the NFL's best combination of size, power and maneuverability. "Looking back on it, sitting out the whole year was definitely the best thing I could have done, really," Anderson said. "I feel great. I've got a timetable and, believe me, teams will know when they see me that I'm ready to play." Anderson has been working out regularly with other NFL players at an Atlanta training complex. He made a couple trips to New England last year, came close to signing both times, and then decided he was not sufficiently recovered from 2001 surgery to return. "It was a lot harder than I thought it would be, going up there, being close to the game again," Anderson said. "My heart almost (overruled) my head. But my head finally told me it wasn't the right thing to do. I didn't want to play if I was just going to be a shadow of myself."
Talk about an item that got far too much coverage, including from this site, than it ever merited: The breathtaking news early this week that Oakland had signed future Hall of Fame wide receivers Jerry Rice and Tim Brown to contract extensions through the 2008 season was about as big a non-story as you can get. Headlines blared that Rice had signed a six-year deal worth $30 million, as if the guy planned to actually be playing at age 46. The truth of the matter is that the deals were just another example of how Monopoly money is used by a team to create salary cap room and, in this case, maybe generate a bit of public relations at the same time. The extensions were just some fancy bookkeeping, that's all, by Raiders senior administrator Bruce Allen. By adding three more seasons to Rice's contract and four more years to the Brown deal, the Raiders carved out about $5.4 million more on their cap. Allen has made similar moves in the past but, of course, they didn't get nearly as much media play, because they didn't involve two guys who have 2,474 receptions between them. The six-year contract under which Rice is playing, is worth $29.249 million, according to NFL Players Association salary documents, But here's the catch: Of that total, $24 million is due in the final three years, in base salaries of $7 million (2006), $8 million (2007) and $9 million (2008), C'mon, folks, do you really think Rice is going to see any of that money? He'll make $2.3 million this year, $1.2 million in a signing bonus and $1.05 million in base salary, or roughly $550,000 more than he was due for '03 under his old deal. Brown, on the other hand, is actually taking a pay cut this year. He was to have earned $6 million in total compensation, a base salary of $3.3 million and March 5 roster bonus of $2.7 million, for 2003. Instead he'll make just $2.755 million. Fact is, over the next three seasons of the contract, Brown is scheduled to make $5.255 million. Or $745,000 less than he was to have earned in 2003 alone under his old contract. Just like Rice, his base salaries total $24 million for the 2006-2008 seasons, when he'll have long since been retired.
When the Cincinnati Bengals hired former Philadelphia secondary coach Leslie Frazier as defensive coordinator, they knew they were getting one of the league's brightest young assistants, a guy definitely on the rise. What they might not have realized, though, is what a terrific recruiter Frazier could be for them in free agency. Yeah, we know, the Bengals have yet to land a top veteran in free agency. But everyone who has visited the team in recent days has raved about head coach Marvin Lewis, but even more so about Frazier. "The guy," said defensive tackle John Thornton, a free agent from the Titans, "is definitely a class act. I love that guy." Other veterans have offered similar comments about Frazier, an engaging coach who will some day be a candidate for a head coaching spot.
Punts: Teams seeking a quality "nickel" back might want to take a look at Fred Weary, a five year veteran who played for Atlanta last season. Weary was able to void his three-year deal after just one season with the Falcons and some franchises might not realize he is a free agent … . San Francisco defensive tackle Dana Stubblefield, recently released for cap purposes, is choosing between going back to the 49ers are going across The Bay and signing with the Raiders … . Houston is attempting to upgrade at tight end and trying hard to sign former St. Louis starter Ernie Conwell. If they don't land Conwell, then Jay Riemersma (Buffalo) and Reggie Kelly (Atlanta) will pop up on their radar screen … . There are some Cleveland players who are grumbling about the number of veteran leaders lopped off for salary cap reasons in recent weeks. "We lost a lot of important people in terms of their locker room presence," noted one Browns veteran … . The Saints continue to speak to 5-6 teams about a deal for offensive tackle Kyle Turley, but no deal is imminent.
Len Pasquarelli is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.
| |
|
