INDIANAPOLIS -- Over the last 10 seasons, the NFL has featured at least one rookie 1,000-yard rusher every year, 21 of them in all.

Of note, though, is that just eight of those rookie tailbacks were first-round draft choices. Seven of them were selected in the third round or below and one, Dominic Rhodes of the Colts, wasn't drafted at all in 2001.

Those last numbers might be a source of encouragement and comfort this week for NFL scouts who, almost certainly, will be motivated by the past history of being able to identify tailback diamonds in the rough. Then again, in a year when it seems the draft pool includes no truly outstanding tailback prospect, personnel directors and general managers just might have to mine pretty deep to unearth a back who can carry the rushing (mother) load.

"There are a lot of good backs," said Arizona Cardinals general manager Rod Graves who, given his team's chronic woes at the position, is probably looking to land one of them. "But is there a great back in this group? That's what we have to find out."

To this point, there are as many suspects as prospects, it seems.

	Penn State's Larry Johnson was just the ninth player to rush for 2,000 yards in a season.

Penn State star Larry Johnson has a soft-looking body, had just one great year in college, and faces the stigma of following so many Nittany Lions busts at the position. Chris Brown of Colorado is a powerful, but upright, runner who absorbs plenty of punishment. Derek Watson of South Carolina State has been booted out of two schools and carries plenty of baggage. Lee Suggs of Virginia Tech has suffered through injuries and weighed in at just 202 pounds, about eight pounds lighter than he predicted he would be.

"There's a lot of time still to answer all the questions," said Johnson, who rushed for 2,015 yards and 20 touchdowns last year. "People will see that there are good backs here. I mean, I know one of them, OK?"

Time, and 40-yard times, will tell.

Since the 1970 merger, there has never been a draft that didn't include at least one running back chosen in the first round, and the 1984 lottery is the only one that had fewer than two backs selected in the opening stanza. The average number of first-round backs in the past 33 years is 4.1, and there have been 15 drafts that included five or more first-round runners.

So the odds that this year's draft will be bankrupt of running backs in the first round, at least if history is any indicator, are all but negligible. Then again, there were just two tailbacks chosen in the first round in 2002, and just five in the past two lotteries.

That is, in part, attributable to the number of solid running backs chosen in later rounds. The Denver Broncos alone have created a cottage industry out of finding backs in the middle or low rounds -- Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson among them -- and transforming them into 1,000-yard rushers as rookies. Last year's top rusher among rookies, Clinton Portis of Miami, was a second-round choice.

Another element is that, with so many colleges throwing the ball more now, backs don't develop as well at the campus level.

More than anything else this year, though, is the fact that so many of the top backs are surrounded by question marks. And there is no one prospect that the scouts are certain is the real thing.

One general manager noted on Thursday that the best back he had seen so far was Miami star Willis McGahee, who might not even get on the field in 2003, as he continues to rehabilitate from the catastrophic knee injury that he suffered in the second half of the Fiesta Bowl.

Said the general manager: "He walked in with just a (protective) 'sleeve' on his knee, no limp, looking strong and well conditioned. Hell, just that alone was enough to put him ahead of some of the healthy guys here. It's a shame (about the injury) because he was, head and shoulders, the one premier back we knew would be in this draft. Now someone else has to emerge."

Indeed, it appears that a back or backs will have to play themselves up into the first round. Someone from the tailback pool will have to step up and in some way demonstrate first-round worthiness. But ask scouts who already have done much of the homework on this year's draft to predict which of the backs will emerge and they look at you as if you've queried them on the formula for nuclear fission.

"Right now, it looks like a second-round draft, where backs are concerned," said Tennessee general manager Floyd Reese. "Of course, teams with a need are going to take (backs) in the first round. And beauty is always in the eye of the beholder, right? But there are a lot of backs in a group right now and some of them have to do something to separate themselves."

	“	Everyone is looking, for that (Clinton) Portis-type guy. People knew he was a good back last year, but no one knew quite when to pull the trigger on him, except for the Broncos. And look what they got.”
		—Carolina personnel director Jack Bushofsky

The general manager for one team, which has completed its preliminary draft board, said his club's highest-rated running back isn't even among the top 20 prospects. One college scouting director for an NFC franchise claimed he has no tailbacks right now with a first-round grade.

That is hardly welcome news for those several teams -- Houston, New England, Arizona, Carolina, Dallas and Tampa Bay -- who require dramatic upgrade at the tailback position. But in the subjective science of the draft, it's a given that there will be a back or two that some team becomes sold on, even if no one else does.

The Bucs were one of the few teams ever to claim a Super Bowl title with a tailback-by-committee approach. They don't want to have to do that for a second time. Nor do most teams want that challenge. The optimum is to get an every-down workhorse, a reliable playmaker.

"Everyone is looking," said Carolina personnel director Jack Bushofsky, "for that Portis-type guy. People knew he was a good back last year, but no one knew quite when to pull the trigger on him, except for the Broncos. And look what they got. The guy is a terrific back."

There could, for sure, be a Portis-type back in the 2003 draft, but discerning precisely who he is, and then choosing him in the optimum spot, is the key. One shortcoming here is that, as in the past, most of the top running backs will not run the 40-yard dash. That means the evaluation process will go deep into March, or even later, on most of the tailbacks.

This is a particularly strong group of backs, at least in terms of their bench press abilities, and several prospects posted 25 or more repetitions on the standard 225-pound weight on Wednesday. But being able to throw the bar up 26 or 27 times doesn't necessarily equate to being able to move the yard markers on Sunday afternoons.

If the early indications mean anything, though, tailbacks like Justin Fargas (Southern California), Onterrio Smith (Oregon), Dwone Hicks (Middle Tennessee State) and Musa Smith (Georgia) have helped themselves some.

Fargas could turn out to be a special back, a stunning combination of raw physicality and natural running skills, and likely has already accomplished enough here to move himself up into the second round. But can he take the next step and become a premier back?

That's the question virtually ever back here, and most of the scouts, still have to figure out.

Len Pasquarelli is a senior writer for ESPN.com.