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Even though the oddity has now occurred in consecutive seasons, it is still relatively momentous when the league's rushing champion is sitting at home watching the playoffs on television, as Ricky Williams will be this weekend.
After all, since the 1990 season, the team that claims the rushing champion has advanced to the playoffs nine of 13 years. On two occasions, in '90 and '96, the Detroit Lions failed to qualify for postseason even though the great Barry Sanders led the NFL in rushing yards. Last year, despite the efforts of Priest Holmes, the Kansas City Chiefs won just six games.
For the most part the NFL's much-cited adage, that you run to win, has held true. Usually the franchises that run the football effectively, and certainly the teams with the league's top foot soldier, win enough to earn a playoff berth.
|  | | Williams rushed for over 1,800 yards and the Dolphins still missed the playoffs. |
But this 2002 season has certainly been unusual in a lot of ways, everyone would agree, and the divergence from the run-to-win paradigm is merely the latest example of how wacky a year we have witnessed. It has been a year in which conventional offensive wisdom took a beating and didn't get up from the mat. Offenses began throwing the ball early -- through the first month of the year the passing ratio was at an all-time high -- and never stopped.
In an era that cries for instant gratification, offensive coordinators fell into a mindset that dictated a pass-first approach, and the lack of top backs in the playoffs is simply an affirmation of that philosophy.
Williams, who compiled the eighth-highest rushing total in NFL history, is a playoff spectator. Ditto the San Diego Chargers and LaDainian Tomlinson. Holmes might not have been able to participate in the playoffs because of a hip injury, but the matter is moot, since Kansas City didn't qualify. Clinton Portis of Denver will win offensive rookie of the year honors, but won't add a playoff victory to his impressive first-year resume. The mostly anonymous Travis Henry of the Buffalo Bills, who had more 125-yard games that any back in the league, won't have the postseason stage upon which to introduce himself to football fans outside of Western New York.
"There are a lot of great backs," acknowledged Deuce McAllister of the New Orleans Saints, "on early vacations. You kind of look down the list (of leading rushers) and you're like, 'Nope, he's not in. Neither is he. That guy isn't either.' People have put up big (rushing) numbers but, for whatever reason, it wasn't enough to get their teams into the playoffs."
In fact, of the NFL's top 10 rushers from 2002, only Tiki Barber of the New York Giants is still playing. Only three of the other rushers from the NFL's top 15 -- Ahman Green of Green Bay, Eddie George of Tennessee and the New York Jets' Curtis Martin -- are in the playoffs.
Of the top five rushing teams, only the Atlanta Falcons (No. 4) qualified for postseason play, and their statistics were enhanced by the fact Michael Vick ran for 777 yards, the third most ever by a quarterback. Minnesota, which led the NFL in rushing, won but six contests in 2002. The Dolphins, second in rushing offense, staged yet another trademark collapse and, because of Williams' huge year, now owe New Orleans another first-round selection in the 2003 draft.
For the Dolphins, who lost their last two games, the scenario could not have played out any worse. Williams was everything they expected and more. He provided the team an offensive centerpiece and dictated game tempo. But the Dolphins are out two first-round draft choices, have pretty numbers they can point to in rationalizing the Williams deal, but no playoff spot.
There are plenty of reasons for the demise of the running game in 2002, but the most obvious is the preponderance of West Coast-style offenses around the league. Coaches can insist all they want that the West Coast design is no longer as pervasive as a few years ago. But coordinators around the league seem to be increasingly replacing running plays with short passes. That is increasingly the case, for instance, on third-and-short plays.
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Side Lines
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On-Line
If Green Bay right defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila wants to see the textbook application of how you contain Atlanta quarterback Michael Vick, he might be wise to pore over the videotape of the Falcons loss at Tampa Bay on Dec. 8. Because in his matchup with Falcons left offensive tackle Bob Whitfield on Saturday night, "KGB" will need the same techniques that Bucs upfield rusher Simeon Rice used to contain Vick that day. Some people say that Whitfield isn't the key pass protector for Vick, since the quarterback is left-handed, and it's right tackle Todd Weiner who is responsible for the blindside rushes. But the key to containing Vick is to keep him from rolling to his left, the defensive right side, and to force him to his "off" hand. Rice was masterful in maintaining a disciplined rush angle, not coming too high and permitting Vick to duck underneath him and get to the outside. A rusher wants to be in Vick's face when he turns left, to distort his view as he looks downfield, to force him to hold the ball a count or two longer. The Packers' best outside rusher, Gbaja-Biamila had 12 sacks in the regular season. On Saturday night, it's not as important for him to sack Vick as it is to keep him in the pocket and not allow any downfield scrambling forays. |
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The List
Despite winning just five games in his first two seasons with the club, coach Marty Mornhinweg was retained this week by Detroit Lions ownership. The five victories, none on the road, put Mornhinweg in select (but also dubious) company. Here is a list of the coaches, since 1970, who won fewer than 10 games in their first two seasons with a franchise:
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Coach
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Yrs
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Wins
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John McKay (Bucs)
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1976-77
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2
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Rich Kotite (Jets)
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1995-96
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4
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Leeman Bennett (Bucs)
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1985-86
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4
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Chris Palmer (Browns)
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1999-00
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5
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Jack Patera ('Hawks)
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1976-77
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7
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Hank Stram (Saints)
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1976-77
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7
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Bill Arnsparger (Giants)
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1974-75
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7
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Marion Campbell (Falcons)
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1974-75
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7
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Tommy Prothro (Chargers)
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1974-75
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7
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Abe Gibron (Bears)
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1972-73
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7
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Tom Flores ('Hawks)
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1992-93
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8
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David Shula (Bengals)
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1992-93
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8
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Dick McPherson (Pats)
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1992-92
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8
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Jimmy Johnson ('Boys)
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1989-90
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8
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Marion Campbell (Falcons)
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1987-88
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8
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Frank Gansz (Chiefs)
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1987-88
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8
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Bill Walsh (49ers)
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1979-80
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8
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Bob Holloway (Cards)
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1971-72
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8
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John Mazur (Pats)
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1970-71
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8
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Mike Riley (Chargers)
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1999-00
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9
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Dick Vermeil (Rams)
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1997-98
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9
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Norv Turner ('Skins)
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1994-95
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9
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Joe Bugel (Cards)
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1990-91
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9
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Ray Perkins (Bucs)
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1987-88
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9
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Mike McCormick (Colts)
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1980-81
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9
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Monte Clark (Lions)
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1978-79
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9
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Dick Vermeil (Eagles)
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1976-77
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9
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Bart Starr (Packers)
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1975-76
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9
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Stat of the Week
Since becoming a starter after the Cleveland Browns bye week on Nov. 10, first-round draft choice William Green has averaged 103.7 rushing yards. Had the former Boston College tailback averaged that over the course of the entire season, a rookie campaign in which he struggled early on, the pace would have given him 1,659 yards. |
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Stat of the Weak
The Atlanta offense has been miserable in its red zone execution lately, scoring just 5 touchdowns in 18 trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line in the last five games. But over the same period, the Falcons defense has been equally inept, permitting opponents 11 touchdowns on 14 red zone series.
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The Last Word
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| Holmes |
Cleveland middle linebacker and former Pittsburgh standout Earl Holmes, denying allegations he left trash-talk message on the answering machines of several of his onetime Steelers teammates: "It wan't me. I'm not into that trash-talking stuff. I mean, I can't tongue-wrestle with nobody."
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"Not many teams just come out of the huddle and try to knock (a defense) off the line of scrimmage," said Chicago linebacker Brian Urlacher. "You even see teams spreading the field more now, with three and four wideouts, on third-and-one."
The other factor is, quite frankly, that offenses have been successful with the short passing game. In only his first season as a head coach, Bill Callahan of the Oakland Raiders all but abandoned the power running game predecessor Jon Gruden preferred, and simply rattled off pass plays from his game plan menu. Compared to its past reliance on the running game, Pittsburgh became almost a run-and-shoot team in 2002. The Philadelphia Eagles, even minus starting quarterback Donovan McNabb, didn't scale back the passing game.
Those pundits who suggest that teams will retrench back to power running games for the playoffs might want to re-think that stance. Bill Parcells is fond of reminding people that "you are what you are," and he reiterated that philosophy again in his Thursday press conference in Dallas.
The timing could not have been better because, this season at least, what most playoff qualifiers seem to be are passing teams. And they aren't likely to change just because the calendar has flipped to January now.
Around the league
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| Favre |
Every time Atlanta plays Green Bay, it is cause for revisiting the '92 trade in which the Falcons shipped quarterback Brett Favre to the Packers for a first-round draft choice. The Saturday night playoff game between the clubs, of course, provides a latest excuse for dredging up one of the most lopsided trades in NFL history. What few people realize is how close the trade came to being killed. For openers, there was tremendous disagreement among the Atlanta football people about dealing Favre, the Falcons' second-round pick in the 1991 draft. Vice president of personnel Ken Herock, who went against the advice of Falcons coaches and chose Favre over Browning Nagle in the second round, was dead-set opposed to the trade. But coach Jerry Glanville, who felt Favre was a carouser who would eventually do himself harm and never amount to much, insisted on the trade. Glanville has since resorted to revisionist history on how the trade occurred, and claimed again this week it was consummated without his knowledge, but he definitely was the catalyst. Herock eventually cracked and, knowing he had to make just one phone call -- to best friend Ron Wolf, who coveted Favre when he was serving as the Jets assistant general manager in 1991 -- completed the trade. Here's where the fun begins: Not many people outside the Green Bay organization know that Favre actually failed his physical exam with the Packers. The team doctors feared a hip problem might be degenerative and refused to pass him. Of course, since NFL physicals are totally subjective, Wolf had the right to overrule the opinion of his medical staff. Which is precisely what he did. Gambling that Favre was worth the investment, and the possible financial exposure if his hip problem prematurely ended the quarterback's career, he opted to pass him on the physical. The rest, as they say, is history.
We noted earlier this week that deposed Bengals coach Dick LeBeau might find a quick exit from the unemployment line, since Buffalo Bills general manager has such high regard for him, and noted publicly that he would like to add him to the Bills coaching staff. Look for former Dallas coach Dave Campo to soon land a job as well. The best bet, ESPN.com has learned, is that Campo will join Butch Davis' staff in Cleveland, possibly as defensive coordinator. The incumbent, Foge Fazio, appears to be on thin ice. One of the game's really good guys (and, for the sake of propriety, we admit he's a close friend) Fazio has been victimized by the lackadaisical play of first-round defensive linemen Gerard Warren and Courtney Brown this season, and also by some injuries. Davis is less than happy with the overall defense, though, and Fazio could well pay the price. Campo was a terrific defensive coordinator before being elevated by Jerry Jones to the head coaching spot in 2000. As important, he and Davis worked together on Jimmy Johnson's staff at the University of Miami in the late '80s and have remained close. Campo has heard from at least two other NFL head coaches about joining their staffs, including Mike Holmgren of Seattle, but Cleveland appears to have the inside track.
This could be a busy offseason for MRI technicians, at least those studying the shoulders of NFL quarterbacks, and possibly for orthopedic surgeons. The Rams, as noted earlier this week, will demand Kurt Warner undergo a rigorous exam, including an MRI on his right shoulder, where some club officials suspect a torn rotator cuff. New Orleans quarterback Aaron Brooks, we are told, almost certainly will require surgery to repair some degree of shoulder damage. And while the shoulder separated sustained by Patriots quarterback Tom Brady in the third quarter of last Sunday's game will not require an operation, team officials will closely monitor his rehabilitation during the offseason with regular exams.
While team officials and Marvin Lewis are saying all the right things about his interview with the Cincinnati Bengals, one has to wonder how serious the Washington Redskins defensive coordinator really is about the job. Only two weeks ago, Lewis contended he would not accept any head coaching job and acknowledged that, because he is black, he might need a spot where he would be immediately successful. Lewis seems to sense he might be held to higher standards and that the ability of other minority candidates to land head coaching positions could depend on his early track record. Certainly it will be intriguing, if Lewis is offered the Bengals job, to see what kind of pressure is exerted by the league, the workplace diversity committee, even by activists Johnnie Cochran and Cyrus Mehri, to accept it. Then again, Lewis has always been his own man, and he rejected the Michigan State job three weeks ago, even with some confidants telling him he should take it and use it as a springboard to an NFL head coaching position.
Chicago Bears management can't be too happy with the precipitous slide from a 13-3 record in 2001 to a dismal 4-12 mark this season, one of the biggest one-year slippages in recent league history. But privately Bears officials have to be at least somewhat assuaged by the team's incredibly advantageous draft position. General manager Jerry Angelo has publicly acknowledged the Bears must get a quarterback, probably with their first-round choice, and the club is certainly poised to do so. In fact, California kid Carson Palmer, who again looked very sharp in USC's rout of Iowa in the Orange Bowl on Thursday night, might do well to invest in some long-johns. By virtue of their 4-12 record, the Bears own the fourth overall choice in the draft. And there is a possibility, actually a pretty decent one, that Palmer could slip right to them. Cincinnati has the first overall pick and owner Mike Brown is wary about investing heavily in an untested quarterback. Detroit and Houston, respectively, have the second and third choices and each has its quarterback of the future in Joey Harrington and David Carr. The Bengals might attempt to trade the top choice but, of the teams interested in taking a quarterback, none is in a better move-up position than the Bears. It wouldn't take much for them to slide up three spots, and Cincinnati could go down to No. 4 overall, and still get one of the highly-regarded defensive tackles on the draft board.
An element that can't be discounted in the playoffs this year is the "fatigue factor" that could affect how far some franchises advance in the Super Bowl tournament. Certainly there were some teams who were prematurely forced into the playoff mode because of poor starts this year. Tennessee was forced to overcome a 1-4 start. The New York Jets opened the year 2-5 and became one of just three franchises since the 1970 merger to bounce back from that record and qualify for the postseason. In the AFC East in general, the battle for the division title and for a wild-card berth was so close, every game the second half of the season was contested with a playoff kind of atmosphere surrounding it. Mired at 6-6 heading into December, the New York Giants played the final month of the season knowing they had zero margin for error, and then put together a four-game winning streak to claim a wild card spot. Even the scramble for the all-important home-field advantage, earned by the Raiders and the Eagles, elevated games to playoff caliber. "It definitely takes something out of you mentally," acknowledged Giants tailback Tiki Barber, following his team's overtime win against Philadelphia on Dec. 28. "People always talk about how you basically make the playoffs in November and December. But if you don't win early, that magnifies the importance of the later games, and you're playing every week then as if it's a playoff game." In a year when the playoff contingent consists of teams that each have some sort of flaw -- the combined winning percentage of the 12 playoff qualifiers this year ties for the lowest since the NFL enacted the current format back in 1990 -- the resultant fatigue factor some franchises will experience could be an element worth watching. "After expending so much energy just to get into the playoffs," allowed Jets quarterback Chad Pennington, "you might question how much you've got left in the tank. But it's the playoffs, you know, and you have to suck it up." Maybe so. But a few teams will enter the playoffs with their gas tanks near "E," and those franchises could face an early exit because of it.
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| Mariucci |
Even if the San Francisco 49ers have an early exit from the playoffs, like losing to the New York Giants on Sunday, it appears coach Steve Mariucci will get a contract extension offer from club officials. Sources close to the 49ers coach told ESPN.com this week that Mariucci, through his agent, has relayed emphatic word to John York and general manager Terry Donahue that he wants to remain with the franchise. All it will take is a fair contract offer and assurances from club brass that, even with a new budget in place, the team will hold together its nucleus of young talent. If those two elements fall into place, Mariucci will be thrilled to sign a four-year extension. But if the 49ers lose, the offer to Mariucci could be for little more than the $2.2 million base salary he is scheduled to earn in 2003, the final season of his current deal. Things could get sticky then. Mariucci is likely seeking about $3 million per year. His family wants badly to stay in the Bay Area, but if the offer is below market value, his representatives at IMG might advise him to pass on it and look elsewhere. Where is elsewhere? Perhaps Jacksonville, if the Jaguars don't quickly land a new head coach. Remember, Mariucci flirted last year with the notion of heading to Tampa Bay. His preference is to stay put, but only if the contract numbers are right.
Last year, we went away from the "chalk," and selected St. Louis team president Jay Zygmunt as our executive of the year. This time around, we're going with another franchise president, Joe Banner of Philadelphia, as our choice for the honor. Banner may not be the most beloved guy among some player agents, but his management of the Eagles' salary cap, and his ability at keeping together a roster that should be a viable Super Bowl contender for the next several years, is first-rate. The hallmark of this season, of course, is the extension negotiated with quarterback Donovan McNabb. But where Banner has been particularly crafty is in identifying young players such as defensive tackle Darwin Walker -- with assistance, Banner is always quick to remind, from his football people -- and getting them signed to long-term extensions well in advance of their free-agency eligibility. There is a reason the Eagles are good. There is a reason that among the playoff teams, and really among most teams in the NFL, they are well-suited for continuity. And that reason is Joe Banner and his masterful cap management.
The final count on starting quarterbacks in the regular season: 58. That's 25 in the AFC and 33 in the NFC. The Rams were the only team to start four different quarterbacks: Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, Jamie Martin and Scott Covington. There were six other franchise that used three starters. Only 14 teams had the same starter every game.
If Bill Parcells really does want to bring Vinny Testaverde to Dallas as his transition quarterback, as many suspect, he will at some point have to deal with his former New York Jets bosses. Testaverde has four years remaining on his contract and there are some salary-cap implications involved if he is released or traded. Testaverde recently noted he doesn't especially want to go to Dallas but the temptation of again being a starter, and under the charge of Parcells, could be appealing. Then again, given the way Parcells exited the Jets three years ago, the team isn't simply going to give Testaverde away to "The Tuna." And as the Deion Sanders case demonstrated last week, a player just can't retire, then resume his career elsewhere. If Testaverde were to retire, an option being floated by his agent, the Jets would just retain his rights by placing him on the league's "reserve/retired" list and freeze him there. The upshot: It's going to be dicey for Parcells to get Testaverde in a Cowboys uniform. The fallback guy could be Rodney Peete of Carolina, who could come with Dan Henning in a package deal. Parcells has tried to downplay talk that Henning will be freed from his contract to move on to the Cowboys. There are rumblings, however, Panthers coach John Fox will give Henning his freedom if he asks for it. Fox could then hire current New York Giants offensive coordinator Sean Payton, a close friend, to run his offense. Even though the Dallas defense looks pretty good on paper, Parcells is going to want to make changes on the unit. The scheme used by Dave Campo featured smaller, quicker defenders, but Parcells has always been a guy who likes size. The smaller linebackers, like Dexter Coakley and Dat Nguyen, won't sell well with Parcells and could be traded.
Quarterback Jeff Blake, on the cusp of free agency, wants assurances from Baltimore Ravens officials that he will go to camp as the starter before he considers a contract extension. Blake played well at times after replacing the injured Chris Redman (back) early in the season. Redman will need surgery to repair a herniated disc and the Ravens weren't convinced, even before the back injury, that he was their quarterback of the future. They would like to keep Blake, but at their price, not his.
The four-year extension the Arizona Cardinals wisely negotiated with two-year veteran tailback Marcel Shipp last week includes a signing bonus of $1.75 million. The base salaries are constant, at $1.425 million annually, for the 2003-2006 campaigns. It's an excellent deal for both sides, since Shipp has no mobility anyway as an "exclusive rights" free agent, and the Cards didn't have to overpay in terms of upfront money. As noted at the time of the extension, the deal almost certainly spells the end in Arizona for former first-round tailback Thomas Jones, a guy who squandered away the starting job in three straight seasons.
This is certainly belated, but our condolences to the family of longtime Pro Football Weekly draft analyst Joel Buchsbaum, who passed away late last Saturday. Having worked at Pro Football Weekly in the early '80s, I got to know Buchsbaum well and thoroughly enjoyed the relationship I had with him over the last two decades. He may not have created the term "draftnik" -- in fact, Buchsbaum really abhorred the word, because he felt it reflected a sense of amateurism -- but it became a part of football jargon because of him. He was, with apologies to everyone else who followed his lead, the best at what he did. So complete were his draft publications that every team in the NFL subscribed to them. "He had stuff," said Carolina Panthers personnel director Jack Bushofsky this week, "that always forced us to send (a scout) back out to check on a kid, because it was information we didn't have." Buchsbaum was as tireless as he was opinionated. He regularly phoned me at 11 p.m. because that's when he often began his work day, poring over videotapes until dawn, working out of his crammed Brooklyn apartment. It was a labor of love for Buchsbaum, a passion that superceded all else, except for his beloved parents. He had, outside of his dog, no social life. He was, and he wouldn't mind us saying this I don't think, a geek. Buchsbaum had a variety of afflictions, was a frail man, yet a guy who couldn't or wouldn't slow down. All of us, me included, tapped shamelessly into his knowledge. Around draft time, when the phone ran during dinner, my wife would routinely hand it to me and mutter just: "It's him." I would know immediately who she meant. His passing is a loss for all football fans, for the personnel directors and general managers and scouts with whom he dealt, for those of us who were privileged enough to work with him. Funny but, years ago, he used to send us copy on torn-out loose-leaf sheets, written with a No. 2 pencil. After years of urging, he finally learned to use a computer, but still remained in fear of deleting all of his copy with one misdirected keystroke. That he has now been deleted from our lives, ironically, is a purge that is indeed difficult to reconcile.
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| James |
No need to pass the hat, after all, for Colts tailback Edgerrin James. While it's true James missed out on a $1.38 million incentive because he fell 11 yards shy of the 1,000-yard mark, he did collect another bonus. He cashed in on a $1.5 million incentive for catching 60 passes. In another money matter, Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck reached various benchmarks that triggered some lucrative incentives. Hasselbeck finished fifth in the league in competition percentage, sixth in passer rating and 19th in scoring passes. He needed to rank among the top five in just one category to replace his scheduled base salary of $1 million for 2003. By hitting the benchmarks, Hasselbeck triggered three teams options. The Seahawks can give him a one-year deal worth $4.5 million, a two-year contract worth $10.5 million, or a three-year, $18.5 million pact. The team has until 10 days after the Super Bowl to apprise Hasselbeck as to which option it will exercise.
Punts: Dating back to the 1995 AFC championship game, Indianapolis has now lost its last four playoff appearances ... Washington tight end Zeron Flemister this week signed a three-year contract extension worth $2.02 million in so-called "new money." He received a $350,000 signing bonus and base salaries of $450,000 (for 2003), $575,000 (2004) and $1.05 million (2005) ... The Pittsburgh coaches like what they have seen so far of punter Tom Rouen, who replaced the injured Josh Miller two weeks ago. Rouen could get a shot to come to training camp in the summer and vie with Miller for a job ... Over the last few years, Jacksonville quarterback Mark Brunell has warred with Tom Coughlin and conceded to friends he wouldn't mind being traded. With Coughlin's departure, however, Brunell would like to stay in Jacksonville, where he has a big home, solid fan base and business interests ... One defensive lineman who is skyrocketing up draft boards: Ohio State end Kenny Peterson, a certain second-rounder, and a guy some teams feel will rise into the opening stanza with good offseason workouts ... There remains no solid favorite for the general manager position with the Seahawks. Plenty of names, like those of Tom Modrak, Randy Mueller and Bill Tobin are being tossed around, but just speculative ... If current Dallas defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer isn't retained by Bill Parcells, word is he will join the University of Alabama staff ... Look for Arizona to make some moves on its offensive coaching staff ... There are indications that St. Louis coach Mike Martz has already canned at least two assistants, but the Rams have yet to issue a release confirming that.
Len Pasquarelli is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.
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