Remember when the league announced its realignment plan and, after everyone perused the new divisions, all the experts looked at the NFC South and immediately anointed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a lock to run roughshod through a quartet that allegedly featured three pushovers?
Sure you remember because, like all the pundits, you agreed. C'mon, fess up, now. The NFC South was supposed to be a division in which one club was headed to the playoffs and the others were, well, going south.
At the three-quarter pole of the season, however, no one is laughing. With apologies to the AFC East and the AFC West, there is no more competitive a division than the preseason laughingstock NFC South. Barring an upset of monumental proportions, the NFC South will send three teams to the playoffs. Even the division's stepchild, the Carolina Panthers, have enjoyed a few golden moments amid another season of disappointment.
"All the people who just figured we would waltz our way (to the playoffs), go right through the division with no trouble at all, they look pretty silly now," said Bucs weakside linebacker Derrick Brooks after Sunday night's loss at New Orleans.
That loss tightened the division and will certainly constrict a lot of players' throats over the final four weeks of the season. But as we clear our throats at ESPN.com for the final stretch run, and the third-quarter grades for all clubs in the conference, it's hard not to note the supremacy of the NFC South.
It is the lone division in the league featuring three teams with at least eight victories. The aggregate record of the four teams is 29-18-1, the best mark of any division in the NFL, quite the polar opposite of the NFC North, where Green Bay owns as many wins as its three competitors combined. And in ESPN.com's latest report card, it possesses the highest combined GPA, with all four teams earning grades in the "C-minus" class or higher.
The surging Atlanta Falcons, who traveled to Tampa Bay for one of the most significant games in franchise history, earned one of two "A" grades in the conference. The other went to a Philadelphia Eagles team that somehow is tied for the best record in the NFL despite the absence of star quarterback Donovan McNabb.
Here are the grades heading into the final four weeks of the season:
Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
The alleged franchise quarterback, Jake Plummer, has regressed to the point where the Cardinals may not even attempt to keep him off of the free-agent market. The explosive wide receiver, David Boston, faces a long rehabilitation from knee surgery, but the club might still have to designate him a "franchise" player to retain his rights. And a former first-round back, Thomas Jones, broke his hand answering a telephone, but has broken very few tackles in three seasons. Wonder why the Cardinals have lost six straight after an exhilarating 4-2 start, why good-guy coach Dave McGinnis last week described himself as "miserable," and why Sun Devil Stadium is half-empty for most games? There are franchises eternally mired in a mess and this is one of them. If it doesn't soon get a stadium deal, the team could be on the move. Well, geographically, at least.
Grade: F. (First-quarter: B-; Midseason: C)
Atlanta Falcons (8-3-1)
This used to be one of those franchises like the Cardinals, taking baby steps forward in some seasons, then a quantum leap backward in the following year. But two individuals, new owner Arthur Blank and second-year quarterback Michael Vick, have resuscitated the Falcons and turned on a city that typically warms only to college football. The importance of those two men aside, the Falcons remain a team that is the sum of its parts, with a lot of unsung veterans enjoying very solid seasons. Middle linebacker Keith Brooking is making plays in every phase of the game, including a blocked field goal last Sunday, and few guys possess the huge motor of defensive end Patrick Kerney. Just as in 1998, the magic around this team seems to be palpable now. Atlanta is a lock for the playoffs, Vick could win the MVP award and Dan Reeves is a top candidate for coach of the year.
Grade: A. (First-quarter: C-; Midseason: A-)
Carolina Panthers (4-8)
Even with eight straight defeats separating the three-game win streak at the outset of the season and Sunday's upset victory at Cleveland, there has definitely been progress, and first-year coach John Fox has some positives upon which to build in 2003. But the four wins are overshadowed by an unprecedented rash of off-field missteps and Carolina management has to move beyond the rationalizations that these kinds of indiscretions occur with a lot of NFL teams. The Panthers had three league-imposed suspensions, held wide receiver Steve Smith out for a game and are paying tailback Lamar Smith to stay away for the final month of the year. Denial doesn't help when you're facing the kind of rebuilding that confronts the Panthers. Fox has assembled a very nice defense, ranked No. 6 in the NFL, but the priority has to be finding a viable starting quarterback.
Grade: C-minus. (First-quarter: B; Midseason: C-)
Chicago Bears (3-9)
From a surprising 13-3 in 2001 to possible double-digit losses this season, the Bears are unfortunately enacting one of the biggest slips over a one-year span in recent league history. Like the Panthers, this is a team whose first offseason priority must be locating a young quarterback upon whom to focus the future. Either through the draft or free agency, it is all but a given that general manager Jerry Angelo will make a move. It can be argued, and rather successfully, that the Bears and coach Dick Jauron were victimized by injuries and perhaps, to a lesser extent, by having to play every game on the road. Both those elements are critical factors. But this is also a team that has some talent, should be better than a No. 27 ranking on offense and No. 26 on defense, and simply hasn't made enough plays. Jauron will keep his job but might be forced to make staffing changes.
Grade: D. (First-quarter: C-; Midseason: F)
Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
As early as midseason, owner Jerry Jones acknowledged that the focus had turned to determining whether the Cowboys had a quarterback on the roster who could lead them into the future or whether they would have to use another high-round choice on a passer. The coaches believe now that Chad Hutchinson has big-time skills, will be even better when he knocks off all the rust from four seasons of playing baseball, and is a leader around whom players will rally. Along with Hutchinson, signed as a free agent late last year, Dallas is getting solid contributions from its 2002 draft class, and rookies like center Andre Gurode, wide receiver Antonio Bryant, safety Roy Williams and cornerback Derek Ross all possess Pro Bowl-caliber abilities. But the Cowboys must fix an offensive line ravaged by injuries, and where both offensive tackles could depart, and find a viable tailback.
Grade: C. (First-quarter: C-; Midseason: D)
Detroit Lions (3-9)
The good news is that the Lions have a star of the future, a solid quarterback, in first-round pick Joey Harrington. The former Oregon star is capable of making all the throws, has intelligence that belies a lack of NFL experience, and has won the respect of teammates. The bad news? Many of those teammates, and possibly his coach and general manager as well, might not be around to benefit from how good Harrington will become. It would be difficult to detail the pratfalls of team president Matt Millen and of head coach Marty Mornhinweg. The decision by Mornhinweg two weeks ago to kick off in overtime after winning the toss will go down in league history as one of the biggest gaffes of all-time. This used to be a franchise with more talent than its record indicated, but stalwart veterans like defensive linemen Robert Porcher and Luther Elliss are well beyond their prime now.
Grade: F. (First-quarter: D; Midseason: C)
Green Bay Packers (9-3)
The past month has not been kind to the Packers in terms of injuries and, if offensive line assistant Larry Beightol is forced to do much more juggling, he ought to consider joining the circus. Green Bay will play the balance of the year minus both starting tackles, Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, and right guard Marco Rivera is gutting things out with a torn knee ligament. Now tailback Ahman Green, who is nearly as essential to Green Bay as quarterback Brett Favre, is nursing a knee injury and could miss some playing time. It's always easy to suggest that Favre is the key to the Packers, because he characteristically is, but not to be overlooked this season is the resourcefulness of a defense ranked just 14th in the league. The Packers, even with a reconfigured secondary, lead the NFL in takeaways (38) and turnover differential (plus-14), and that's been huge.
Grade: B-plus. (First-quarter: B; Midseason: A)
|
THINGS TO WATCH IN THE NFC
|
|
 1. The Tampa Bay Bucs are the last team to defeat the Atlanta Falcons but hardly the last defense to beat up on quarterback Michael Vick, suddenly a favorite for most valuable player honors, but a guy who throws himself into harm's way several times a game. The Bucs manhandled Vick on Oct. 6 at the Georgia Dome, but he gets another shot at the NFL's top-rated defense on Sunday in Raymond James Stadium. If it were a Don King-promoted boxing match, he'd have some catchy moniker for the showdown, you can bet. For lack of anything better, we're tabbing it The Immovable Force versus The Uncatchable Object, a can't miss game with all sorts of implications. This is a better Atlanta team now, with a more confident quarterback, than when the teams met two months ago. The winner of this game probably takes the best division in the league, could get homefield advantage in the NFC bracket, and a leg up on a Super Bowl berth.
 2. Can the Philadelphia Eagles possibly McNabb a Super Bowl berth, after falling only five points short in the NFC championship game a year ago? Or might the Bird be Koy about their chances? Keep an eye on the Philadelphia quarterback situation. Koy Detmer could be back in a couple weeks, which would provide great comfort to Andy Reid and his staff. More important will be whether Donovan McNabb will be able to get on the field for the season finale. Or, if not then, for the playoffs. McNabb could well be done for the year and, if he is, the Eagles can probably put those Super Bowl dreams on ice until 2003. But if he can simply limp his way through a game or two ... well, you remember Willis Reed, don't you?
 3. Word in New York is that the fate of Giants coach Jim Fassel likely will be determined by how his team performs in the final four games of 2002. The Giants are at Washington on Sunday, home against Dallas Dec. 15, at Indianapolis Dec. 22 and host the Eagles in a Saturday finale Dec. 28. Sounds like 2-2, which adds up to 8-8 for the year, which probably would be enough to earn Fassel another season. Other coaches who could be on the hot seat and, thus, beat scrutiny in the final month: Dave Campo (Dallas), Marty Mornhinweg (Detroit), Mike Tice (Minnesota), and Mike Holmgren (Seattle). It's all but a given that, no matter the record in Chicago, coach Dick Jauron will get a one-year grace period because of the many injuries and the distraction of playing every game on the road. The situation with Steve Mariucci in San Francisco bears watching but not until after the year. He's got one season left on his contract and doesn't want to enter the 2003 campaign without an extension.
 4. Just a couple seasons ago, Green Bay seven-year veteran Mike Flanagan was a promising young center Packers coaches loved, but who kept getting hurt all the time. Talk about irony. Because he's been one of only two Green Bay linemen able to stay healthy in '03, he's got a significant role in the playoff aspirations of the Packers, and the continuing health of Brett Favre. With the season-ending injury to Chad Clifton, the versatile Flanagan is forced to move full-time to left tackle. He's done it in the past this year, because of other injuries to Clifton, and with mixed results. Some opponents privately question whether Flanagan, who is a tad light in the backside, can hold up physically at left tackle through the final month of the regular season and the playoffs as well.
 5. Washington is forced into the role of spoiler now and it will be interesting to see which quarterback Steve Spurrier chooses as the potential spoil sport. His affinity for former University of Florida quarterbacks aside, Spurrier must realize the future belongs to first-round pick Patrick Ramsey. No time like the present to get Ramsey some more starts under his belt, with an eye toward '03, but whether Spurrier adopts that approach remains to be seen. It will also be interesting to see if Carolina coach John Fox gives some starts to Chris Weinke or Randy Fasani in the final month. And, for the heck of it, might Arizona's Dave McGinnis trot out Josh McCown as he begins to plan for the likelihood of life without Jake Plummer?
— Len Pasquarelli
|
Minnesota Vikings (3-9)
The Vikings have played better recently -- notably in the upset victory over Green Bay, a solid but losing effort against New England and last Sunday's overtime loss to Atlanta -- but still are a franchise with plenty of question marks. Starting with this one: Will, as anticipated, the absentee owner Red McCombs peddle the club to Minnesota Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor? And will there be a new stadium? Even if those ownership and venue issues are settled, there remain personnel and coaching decisions, along with some matters of player interaction. Randy Moss is still a cancer and, even if we accept some of his snits are overstated, he will always be a lightning rod. And how about coach Mike Tice, who designed a brilliant throwback play to Daunte Culpepper that would have beaten Atlanta? Alas, the play was illegal in its design, which Tice should have known.
Grade: F. (First-quarter: F; Midseason: F)
New Orleans Saints (8-4)
Before last weekend's critical victory over Tampa Bay, the Saints were playing more like the Sinners, with quarterback Aaron Brooks looking nearly as suspect as the team's No. 24-rated defense. Whether the win over the Bucs serves as a springboard for the rest of the season, or turns into a swan dive off the 10-meter platform, remains to be seen. The Saints can be up and down, but possess enough big playmakers, mostly on the offensive side of the ball, to be troublesome in the postseason. A noted streak shooter, Brooks is the key to a potentially explosive offense, one in which tailback Deuce McAllister has become a centerpiece. But the Saints are at their best when spreading the field, and using big line gaps for McAllister, and coordinator Mike McCarthy or head coach Jim Haslett haven't always done that in recent weeks.
Grade: B. (First-quarter: A-; Midseason: B+)
New York Giants (6-6)
Riding high only a couple weeks ago, two consecutive defeats and an offense that still doesn't score nearly enough points has the Giants teetering on the brink of playoff extinction, and there are whispers again that coach Jim Fassel could be in trouble. New York played its best football of the season immediately after Fassel took back the play-calling chores from coordinator Sean Payton and began getting the ball more to tailback Tiki Barber, the team's best player, and rookie tight end Jeremy Shockey. But the Giants, who rank 11th on offense and No. 8 on defense but don't play up to those impressive numbers, lack overall team speed. That has been a problem for a few seasons, and might be overcome if some of the young wideouts are healthy in 2003, but continues to be a big shortcoming. This team epitomizes NFL parity, not very good, not too bad.
Grade: C. (First-quarter: C+; Midseason: C-)
Philadelphia Eagles (9-3)
Somebody please consider Eagles defensive coordinator Jim "Don't Call Me Jimmy" Johnson for a head coach position at the end of the '02 season. Please. Given that he's a sixtysomething coach, basically seen as codger equivalent in the NFL, it won't happen. Too bad, since Johnson is one of the most inventive coordinators in the league, even if most people outside Philly don't realize it. You want to explain how the Eagles, already playing inconsistent football even before they lost Donovan McNabb to a broken ankle, managed to win two games with Koy Detmer and A.J. Feeley as the starters? In large part, because Johnson ratcheted up the Philadelphia defense, which permitted just two touchdowns to a pair of the most potent offenses in the game. Even though they've struggled at times, the Eagles remain in contention for homefield advantage in the playoffs.
Grade: A. (First-quarter: C+; Midseason: B+)
St. Louis Rams (5-7)
If you just factored raw statistics into the equation, the Rams would appear to be the playoff contenders they were supposed to be, but the usually significant numbers don't tell the tale. St. Louis is rated No. 6 in the league offensively and is seventh in defense, the only NFL franchise to rank so high on both sides of the ball. But here are two stats that overshadow all the other numbers: Kurt Warner is 0-6 as the starter. And largely because of his inability to protect the football and himself, the Rams are a minus-12 in turnover differential, the third poorest mark in the NFL. Offensively, the club is paying a high price for not paying more attention to its line. And on defense, the Rams may have overestimated their linebacker corps, and might have to revamp the position in the offseason. Fair or not, coach Mike Martz is going to come under close scrutiny at the end of the year.
Grade: D. (First-quarter: F; Midseason: C-)
San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
The 49ers are a team that could advance deep into the NFC playoff bracket. Or they could lose in the first round. They could capture a Super Bowl trophy or win nothing more than a booby prize. San Francisco can be a very efficient outfit, as evidenced by its league-low 11 turnovers, and that always bodes well when a team doesn't beat itself. But over the last few weeks, the 49ers haven't quite been hitting on all cylinders and there is a foreboding of trouble on defense again. After a stretch in which defensive coordinator Jim Mora Jr. did an excellent job camouflaging the inadequacy of first-round cornerback Mike Rumph, opponents have done a good job of finding the rookie again and painting a bull's eye on him. The saving grace for the Niners is that quarterback Jeff Garcia is still a proven playmaker and the 49ers every year have a surprisingly solid running game.
Grade: B-plus. (First-quarter: B; Midseason: B+)
Seattle Seahawks (4-8)
The Seahawks have had losing streaks of three and two games this season but have yet to post consecutive victories. Tough to make it into the playoffs when you can't put together a two-game stretch of consistency, and that's when beleaguered coach Mike Holmgren is finding out. There have been injuries, including a season-ender to quarterback Trent Dilfer, but this is a team that wasn't playing well even at full-strength. Despite the presence of tailback Shaun Alexander, the Seahawks are just 26th in rushing the ball. And with all the veterans Holmgren brought in on defense last year showing their age, Seattle is dead last against the run again, surrendering more than 170 yards per game. At 4-8, it would take a miracle for the Seahawks to get back to .500 for the season, which isn't what owner Paul Allen hoped for. Right or wrong, the rumors of Holmgren's demise won't stop.
Grade: D-plus. (First-quarter: D+; Midseason: D)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)
The loss at New Orleans on Sunday night, maybe attributable in part to defensive tackle Warren Sapp creating a distraction with his cheap-shot and season-ending hit on Chad Clifton, seemed a dose of déjà vu all over again. Never a club able to handle prosperity very well, the Bucs appeared to be the league's premier team, then stumbled against a Saints bunch that has now beaten them twice. Instead of having breathing room in their division and a leg up on homefield advantage, Tampa Bay will have to battle hard over the season's final month. This is hardly the team Jon Gruden wanted, winning the same way it has for years, and wholesale changes on offense will be the big offseason story. As scary as the Bucs are on defense, they are frighteningly mediocre offensively, with no running game of which to speak and very little vertical passing attack.
Grade: B-plus. (First-quarter: B+; Midseason: B)
Washington Redskins (5-7)
If you don't think Steve Spurrier knows a little bit about offense, try winning just one game with Danny Wuerrfel as your starting quarterback, OK? Yeah, we said just one, folks. The problem for Spurrier is that he too often gets caught up with his own agenda, not just winning, but winning his way. He's learning the hard way, we think, that you've got to run the ball at least modestly well to win at this level. Fifty passes a game characteristically manifests a weakness, not a strength, and you only look like a genius in the NFL by going to the playoffs. The Redskins won't in Spurrier's debut campaign, but they will be a playoff team soon enough, especially when the coaching staff cedes more control over the personnel calls, which will happen in the offseason. When you shine a bright light on the roster, it's pretty sub-par, and that isn't all Spurrier's doing.
Grade: C-plus. (First-quarter: C-; Midseason: C-)
Len Pasquarelli is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.
