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Gaze into the quarterback crystal ball for 2003, peek at the picture of what that critical position could be like in the not-too-distant future, and you come away with the notion as many as one-third of the league's franchises could make changes before next season commences.
The quarterback position, once a model of consistency, has lacked stability for a few seasons now. And the 2003 campaign will only add to a trend that has promulgated upheaval at the quarterback spot.
|  | | Kordell Stewart has thrown six TDs and five INTs this season. |
You think Chicago Bears general manager Jerry Angelo, for instance, plans to enter '03 with the aging tag-team of Jim Miller and Chris Chandler vying for the starting job? Certainly Steve Spurrier won't juggle quarterbacks next year the way he has in his NFL debut season. The Carolina Panthers almost certainly will use a high-round choice, or dangle free agent money, to land a viable quarterback for the future. If the Arizona Cardinals don't retain Jake Plummer, they'll be forced to either go with youngster Josh McCown, or go out and sign another veteran.
As well as he has played, will the Kansas City Chiefs pay an $8 million roster bonus due Trent Green next spring? Ditto the Rams, who must lay out $6 million to Kurt Warner in an option bonus, the last day of February '03.
A few of the questions will be answered in the draft class, by a quarterback crop that is less scintillating than some pundits have appraised it, a group in which even the consensus top player (Byron Leftwich of Marshall) still has enough holes in his game to make some scouts cringe. The hottest passer in the draft class right now, Carson Palmer of Southern California, was viewed as a bust until this season. Louisville's Dave Raggone has been up-and-down most of the year. Chris Simms of Texas remains an enigma.
But for the most part, franchises will look to free agency or trades, and the picture isn't too promising there, either.
In fact, before you write off Kordell Stewart, or join the legion of detractors who feel the Pittsburgh Steelers veteran is finished as an NFL starter, cast a look at the other suspects who might be available. You might deduce that Stewart, who would have to reconfigure his contract for 2003 (which calls for a $6.3 million base salary and $7.92 million salary cap hit) and sign an extension beyond next season, doesn't look too bad in comparison.
The unrestricted free agent class for next spring includes, among others, this nondescript bunch: Tony Banks (Houston), Charlie Batch (Pittsburgh), Jeff Blake (Baltimore), Koy Detmer (Philadelphia), Gus Frerotte (Cincinnati), Kent Graham (Jacksonville), Rob Johnson (Tampa Bay), Shane Matthews (Washington), Shaun King (Tampa Bay), Rodney Peete (Carolina), Danny Wuerffel (Washington) and Plummer.
The most intriguing player in the group might be Plummer, currently reviled by Cardinals fans, and a guy who seems to have regressed again. But King, who very quietly has ascended to the No. 2 ahead of Rob Johnson with the Buccaneers, has to merit consideration. So does Batch, as well, although Steelers officials might try to keep him around with the promise that he can compete with Tommy Maddox for the starting job next summer.
A team could do worse than to sign King or Batch, or to trade for Stewart, because all three are young and still have talent, along with room to grow. Of course, there is always the possibility the St. Louis Rams would listen to offers for Marc Bulger, undefeated and untainted, although a prospect who might not function as well in a different system. And the Detroit Lions, who seem sold now on Joey Harrington, could peddle Mike McMahon.
Opined one veteran general manager, whose team is carefully scrutinizing the free agent crop, and hopes to grab a young player who still has viable potential: "At first glance, (the free agent) crop looks pretty atrocious, but there might be a few steals in there, you know? And you've to really look hard at Stewart, whether you love him or not, because he has played and has taken his team to the playoffs. I think if you can get him for a decent price in a trade, or maybe sign King, you could be pleasantly surprised."
Fact is, don't be too surprised if the trade market for quarterbacks gets a little more active this spring, as teams reshuffle their depth charts. There is a still a chance, albeit slim, that the Jacksonville Jaguars would deal off Mark Brunell, but only for a stash of draft picks. Even though some teams will just wait for Pittsburgh to release Stewart, a smart franchise will offer the Steelers a middle-round pick for him, rather than compete for him on the open market. Dallas could dangle Quincy Carter and, despite his collapse, Chris Weinke in Carolina could have some modest value.
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Side Lines
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On-Line
On a sack hot streak, and suddenly a more complete player than he has ever previously demonstrated in a seven-year career, Tampa Bay right defensive end Simeon Rice now leads the league in sacks (11 ½) and is making a run at defensive player of the year honors. On Sunday night, he will encounter New Orleans left offensive tackle Kyle Turley in an intriguing matchup that pits upfield quickness against strength and toughness. Turley has performed well in his first season since making the switch from the right side, and has done a solid job of protecting quarterback Aaron Brooks, but will have his hands full with Rice. Always a sack threat in his career, Rice is playing the run better than ever, and has developed some inside counter moves to add to his pass-rush repertoire. Brooks has made plenty of dubious decisions in the Saints' recent slide and the last thing he needs is to have Rice in his face on Sunday night. |
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The List
With their comeback victory on Thanksgiving Day, the Dallas Cowboys have now defeated the Washington Redskins 10 straight times, the longest winning streak of this storied rivalry. The teams meet again in the regular-season finale on Dec. 29. Here's a look at Dallas' 10 straight wins:
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Date
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Score
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Nov. 28, 2002
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'Boys 27, Redskins 20
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Dec. 2, 2001
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'Boys 14, Redskins 10
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Oct. 15, 2001
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'Boys 9, Redskins 7
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Dec. 10, 2000
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'Boys 32, Redskins 13
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Sept. 18, 2000
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'Boys 27, Redskins 21
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Oct. 24, 1999
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'Boys 38, Redskins 20
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Sept. 12, 1999
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'Boys 41, Redskins 35
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Dec. 27, 1998
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'Boys 23, Redskins 7
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Oct. 4, 1998
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'Boys 31, Redskins 10
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Nov. 16, 1997
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'Boys 17, Redskins 14
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Stat of the Week
One of the most reviled men in Chicago these days is offensive coordinator John Shoop, a man castigated weekly for a design in which the ball almost never goes up the field, and seems to be stuck in the horizontal mode. But it is interesting to note that, despite the absence of the deep ball, the Bears rank second in the league in completions of 20 yards or more. The Bears have 40 completions of 20 or more yards, just four fewer than the St. Louis Rams, and wide receiver Marty Booker leads the NFL with 18 catches of 20 yards or more. Suffice it to say, Chicago receivers must be adding plenty of yards after the catch. |
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Stat of the Weak
Even though owner Mike Brown suddenly seems heartened with the effort displayed by his 1-10 club, and is toying with the idea of bringing back the entire coaching staff for another season, the sobering reality is that the Cincinnati Bengals now have five straight seasons with double-digit defeats. The club has 10 or more losses in nine of the last 12 seasons.
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The Last Word
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Green Bay offensive line assistant Larry Beightol, on possible retaliation against Tampa Bay defensive tackle Warren Sapp for his hit on Packers left tackle Chad Clifton last Sunday: "It's not a cheap shot, but there has to be something where these players look out for each other. There will be other games. There will be other times. Like the saying goes, 'Every dog has his day.' We'll see about him. Everyone is fair game. When we see him again, we'll see how that dog fares. We'll cut (block) him every single time. I want him to know that."
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Teams seeking a one-year "bridge" quarterback, a guy who would serve as the starter in '03 while tutoring his eventual replacement, might consider the possibility of adding Vinny Testaverde, who probably won't return to the New York Jets next year. Another longtime veteran, Doug Flutie, could be available if he declined to restructure a pricey contract.
"It figures to be a pretty busy offseason, with quarterbacks moving all over the place, and that's why guys would do well to realize that every game is an audition for them," said one NFC personnel director. "Like for Kordell, every play counts, because he's going to play somewhere in 2003. And the better he does now, the better off he'll be when all the reshuffling starts up, because some team will want him. He might not make himself 'whole' in terms of money, but he could do OK on a contract, especially if he plays well now that he's back in the lineup."
Around the league
There is still plenty of time to assess the situation but, if the Cardinals had to make a decision now on their two pending high-profile unrestricted free agents, they would designate wide receiver David Boston as a "franchise" player. And they would allow streaky quarterback Jake Plummer to explore the market. Some team officials believe that Plummer, who hasn't played well at all during a five-game slide, won't merit much consideration as a free agent. If that's the case, Plummer might be inclined to return to the Cardinals, assuming he experiences the harsh reality of free agency. That could be a gamble, since teams like Chicago and Carolina might make a play for Plummer, who could benefit from a change of scenery. It's very early to speculate, but mark down the Cardinals as one of the franchises already closely studying Kordell Stewart, and beginning to accumulate a dossier on him.
You think the loss on Thanksgiving Day at Dallas, the 10th consecutive defeat in the rival series with the Cowboys, was the worst thing to happen to the Washington Redskins last week? Uh-uh. The erroneous story that Vinny Cerrato had been handed the keys to the draft by owner Dan Snyder, and had regained control of front office matters over vice president of football operations Joe Mendes, didn't help things any. The irony is that the story broke on a day that Cerrato was on his way to Austin to scout prospects at the University of Texas. Ask yourself this: If Cerrato were in charge, would he schedule himself for a scouting trip during Thanksgiving week, and with his wife in Chicago and ready to deliver the couple's first child? No way. Redskins officials, who speak only to one newspaper in town (the one that didn't run with the story), quickly debunked the article. That's fine. But what the story did was further magnify how disjointed - and some might suggest dysfunctional - the Washington front office can be at times. Look in the team's 2003 media guide, and Cerrato holds the title director of player personnel, but instead functions as the Midwest scout. He often isn't in the loop on pro personnel decisions and hears of them secondhand. Mendes, who only a couple years ago worked under Cerrato, has the power when it comes to personnel. Then again, it's actually Snyder who makes the final call, and it will be up to him to straighten out the front office and to better delineate job descriptions there. As we've noted here in the past, Snyder is one of the few owners willing to make bold moves to earn himself a Super Bowl. His critics often overlook that fact. The best move that Synder can make right now, though, is to get his front office in order. It's time to sit everyone down and hash this mess out. This week's suggestion Cerrato has taken control was wrong. What isn't erroneous, however, is that the Skins require some tidying up in the front office.
Bet the mortgage that Danny Wuerffel remains the Redskins starter for next Sunday's game against another arch rival, the New York Giants. How do we know this? Because in his postgame tirade after Thursday's defeat, The Ol' Ball Coach told his team that Wuerffel was the only guy on the field who played well. Spurrier lit into his guys pretty well but seemed to absolve Wuerffel of the three interceptions he tossed, several players told ESPN.com on Friday.
Speaking of front offices, it appears that the more victories amassed by the Atlanta Falcons, the longer it will take owner Arthur Blank to decide on a general manager. If, that is, he hires one at all. Joe Bailey, who works for the executive search firm Russell Reynolds and Associates and is doing the legwork for Blank, has begun touching base with possible candidates again. But the search seems to really be relegated to the back burner, and Blank acknowledged for the first this week that the Falcons might not even hire a general manager, and simply maintain the current systems flow. Consultant Bobby Beathard, who has done a nice job and clearly been Blank's primary sounding board, has agreed to extend his stay in Atlanta through the draft now. There is no way, given the current resurgence, that coach Dan Reeves is going anywhere. And Blank seems to like the work done by personnel chief Ron Hill, who recently received a two-year extension. The upshot of all this: If Blank isn't blown away by some candidate presented him after Bailey finishes scouring through possibilities, the Falcons could well go into 2003 and maybe beyond without a general manager. That's especially true now that Ozzie Newsome has gained the general manager title with the Baltimore Ravens. It's reminiscent of how Reeves, on the day he was hired in 1997, promised to have an offensive coordinator within two weeks. Five years later, that hire still hasn't been made, and the same thing could happen with the GM post. Then again Blank might figure, if it isn't broken, why fix it? And right now, the Falcons aren't broken, with the city re-energized by Michael Vick and definitely looking toward the playoffs.
Kudos to Ravens owner Art Modell (been a while since we've said that) for rewarding Ozzie Newsome with the general manager title. To suggest that Newsome got the job because of the pressures imposed on the league by Johnnie Cochran and Cyrus Mehri would be ludicrous. Newsome is one of the best personnel guys in the league, clearly has the salary cap-gutted club back on the road to respectability faster than anyone could have anticipated, and is able to serve as a consensus maker in a front office filled with far too many chiefs. But the fact the Falcons were showing interest in Newsome, who last year was denied permission to speak to Atlanta ownership, indeed played some small role in the timing of his promotion. The Falcons were snooping around Newsome again -- this time knowing that, in the current climate, the Ravens could not deny an African-American the opportunity to interview for a general manager post -- and were serious about him. Notable is that, even with his new five-year contract and new title, Newsome does not have absolute control over all personnel decisions. Brian Billick's deal contractually gives him considerable input in personnel matters.
Long before the Thanksgiving Day loss to New England, things clearly were beginning to unravel for the poor Detroit Lions, a club that figures to undergo a massive overhaul at the end of the season. That things likely will get messy between now and the end of the '02 campaign was confirmed for some Lions office staffers early this week. One team vice president huddled with members of various departments and told them to lie low, keep quiet, essentially become invisible. His message: "Things are going to get ugly here in the next few weeks so keep your mouths shut."
He is a guy we have knocked in the past, but one of the reasons for the recent advances by the Indianapolis defense is the play of Rob Morris, the middle linebacker who has really stepped it up lately. Like most scouts, we have always felt Morris was too short-armed to make plays, and that he slid off a lot of tackles. Certainly he is flanked by superior young players, Mike Peterson and Marcus Washington, and that has helped him. But more than anything, according to assistant coaches who have faced the Colts over the past month, Morris is simply playing with more awareness and instinct. "He is stepping up into the hole and making plays at the line (of scrimmage), as opposed to four yards up the field," said one offensive line coach from an opposing team.
Now that the Green Bay Packers have lost both starting offensive tackles for the season, Mark Tauscher to an early-season knee injury and then Chad Clifton to the hip injury that resulted from Warren Sapp's cheap shot last Sunday, league personnel people wonder how the team will survive. Right tackle Earl Dotson looks used-up at times. Center Mike Flanagan, who will have to move full-time to left tackle now, is too light for the position and can be bullied. Flanagan was charged with one sack permitted while playing center against the Bucs and was deemed culpable by the staff of giving up two more sacks when he moved outside to tackle. It's the first time that a Green Bay lineman has been charged with surrendering three sacks since Dotson gave up a hat trick against the Bucs on Dec. 7, 1998. The Packers were scouring the league for potential replacements this week but couldn't come up with any veterans they really liked. One player they attempted to acquire, and who some personnel folks leaguewide really like, was Patriots practice squad tackle Brandon Gorin. He opted to stay with the Pats, where he could vie for serious playing time in 2003, especially given the recent performances by the New England tackles.
The NFL Players Association has disseminated to agents its midseason report on team payrolls, and the San Francisco 49ers have surpassed the New York Jets for the top spot. The Jets led the way according to the early season survey. The top 10 now: San Francisco, $88.39 million; New York Jets, $86.86 million; Houston, $86.57 million; Pittsburgh, $85.07 million; Atlanta, $79.29 million; Chicago, $78.19 million; Dallas, $77.88 million; Philadelphia, $75.36 million; San Diego, $72.11 million; and Oakland, $71.40 million.
Unsubstantiated rumor of the week: That the Minnesota Vikings already have been sold to Glen Taylor, who also owns the NBA's Timberwolves, and who has quietly cut a deal with current owner Red McCombs. Second, that the NFL has approved the sale but does not want it announced until after the season, at the earliest, as the league and the Vikings attempt to still land an agreement for a new stadium. Sources from all sides have denied the rumor. This much they won't deny: McCombs still wants to sell the Vikings and Taylor is still the most viable buyer.
More than a month ago in this space, we reported Ole Miss quarterback Eli Manning had all but decided to play his senior season, and would not be in the 2003 draft. At the time, the report was accurate, having been checked out with several sources in the Manning family and at the university. But it now appears that the youngest member of the Manning Quarterback Clan could well change his mind and bypass his final season of eligibility. The victory on Thanksgiving Day in Egg Bowl aside, a win that makes Ole Miss bowl eligible, things haven't gone too well for the Rebels in the second half of the season. Manning is said to be less than pleased at the playcalling in some recent games and, truth be told, he has less to return for in his senior year than did big brother Peyton Manning. As usual, the Manning family will be very deliberate in their decision, and Archie Manning will counsel with his many NFL personnel friends to divine an accurate assessment of where his youngest son fits into the 2003 draft. As for underclass players entering the draft, the Monday announcement that Michigan State wide receiver Charles Rogers would be in the lottery should have been old news to readers of this site, since it was reported here five weeks ago.
The numbers are in on the contract wide receiver Donald Driver signed with the Green Bay Packers on Monday and, according to NFL Players Association documents, the five-year extension is worth $11 million in so-called "new money." It could approach $14 million, but Driver would have to achieve virtually every incentive imaginable, every year of the extension. The four-year veteran, who would have been an unrestricted free agent next spring without the extension, received a $4 million signing bonus. His base salary for 2002 remains the same, at $513,000. Bases salaries for the extra years added to the contract are $530,000 (for 2003), $570,000 (2004), $1.2 million (2005), $1.36 million (2006) and $1.84 million (2007). There are roster bonuses of $1 million in 2004 and $250,000 each for 2006 and 2007. There was a good chance, agent Jordan Woy agreed, that Driver would have done better financially had he gone into free agency in the spring. Driver desperately wanted to remain in Green Bay, though, and there certainly were no guarantees he would have hit the jackpot in free agency next spring. The wide receiver position has not been a high priority in free agency, recent history demonstrating that wideouts who get the big money don't necessarily post big numbers, and some franchises are loathe to invest at the position. Plus the 2003 draft appears to be a strong one for wide receivers, so there might not be as many teams active in the free agent market, another reason for Driver to stay put. It's a pretty good deal all around, Driver getting the kind of security he never felt he would have, and the Packers retaining him for just $7.3 million over the first three years of the deal. Kudos to Green Bay vice president Andy Brandt, who negotiates contracts for the team, and who rarely allows a key player to escape in free agency.
Last week, when we suggested that NFL owners seeking to make coaching changes after this season would look hard at the college ranks, we somehow unwittingly failed to mention two guys league people hold in high esteem. Mike Bellotti of Oregon has dodged NFL overtures before, and his family loves the Pacific Northwest, but some team is going to hit the right price for him sooner or later. June Jones of Hawaii has twice been a head coach at the NFL level, has absolutely resurrected a program that was moribund when he arrived, and would listen if a pro team called him.
Chicago strongside linebacker Rosevelt Colvin has decided that he will definitely go into the free agent market in the spring. The Bears clearly want to keep Colvin, who is working on a second straight year with double digit sacks, but haven't been able to complete deal. Colvin's feeling is that, if Chicago is serious about retaining him, it would have done so by now.
Punts: Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher benched tailback Eddie George in the fourth quarter of last Sunday's loss at Baltimore, but emphasized this week that it had nothing to do with a lack of satisfaction in his play. By the way, the Titans have quietly extended the contracts of most of their key assistant coaches. . . . Not even the rabid fans of Kansas City, a hearty bunch that rates near the top of the league, wants to see the Arizona Cardinals. A local television station had to purchase 1,700 tickets for Sunday's home game with Arizona to assure a sellout and permit the game to be aired. It would have marked the Chiefs first home blackout since Dec. 16, 1990. . . . The Saints are concerned that quarterback Aaron Brooks is in a mental slump more than a physical one. They actually feel he will play better against the Bucs because the Tampa Bay "Cover 2" defense is relatively basic. . . . The Bucs, on the other hand, are excited by the play of cornerback Brian Kelly, who has performed well in his first full season as a starter.
Len Pasquarelli is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.
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