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Just one week into the regular season and already the vultures are circling, with plenty of speculation about which head coach will be fired first in 2002, and whether anyone will be jettisoned during the regular season.
The early consensus is that Dick LeBeau (Cincinnati), Marty Mornhinweg (Detroit), Dave Campo (Dallas), Dan Reeves (Atlanta) and Mike Holmgren (Seattle) already are on the endangered species list. But talk is cheap, paying off coaching contracts isn't, and the recent NFL history skews dramatically away from making in-season coaching changes.
So the upshot of all the rhetoric: There figures to be some alterations after the 2002 season, but perhaps none during it. Owners seem now to have quietly acknowledged that making a switch in the middle of a campaign, despite the alleged emotional lift a club is supposed to experience, rarely has any truly significant and lasting impact on a franchise.
The problems in Cincinnati, for instance, existed long before LeBeau took over as head coach. Whether or not you believe Mornhinweg was prepared to become a head coach, you have to agree the dysfunction in Detroit goes way beyond the coach and all the way to the front office. In Dallas, owner Jerry Jones calls most of the personnel shots, and coaches are forced to work with the hand he deals them.
"The old (stuff) about how a fresh face and a fresh message will make some sort of difference, hey, it's passé," said one owner who learned firsthand that lesson not too many years ago. "Players now are so blasé about the game, it really doesn't matter to them who the coach is most times. Plus once losses start to snowball, you could conjure up the ghost of (Vince) Lombardi, and he probably couldn't reverse the avalanche."
Since the end of the 1990 campaign, there have been 91 coaching changes in the league, but just 11 of those came in-season. And in most cases, the switch made little difference, with most teams continuing their losing ways after the old coach was canned. Only Gary Moeller, who compiled a 4-3 mark after he replaced the retired Bobby Ross with the Detroit Lions nine games into the 2000 season, posted a winning record among the "replacement" coaches.
In fact, the 11 coaches who were fired or who resigned in-season since 1990 had an aggregate record of 31-67 at the time of their departures, a winning percentage of .316. The men who replaced them, albeit under the toughest of circumstances, managed a combined winning percentage of only .231, and an aggregate record of 18-60.
The numbers are similar for "replacement" head coaches dating back to the 1970 merger and there are only a few exceptions to the futility.
In 1986, Ron Meyer replaced Rod Dowhower as the head coach of the 0-13 Indianapolis Colts and somehow stewarded the team to three straight wins to close out the season. When Mike Shanahan was dimissed by Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis in 1989, replacement Art Shell led the team to a 7-5 mark, after a 1-3 start. Such success stories are rare, indeed. Turnarounds are difficult to accomplish, history has demonstrated, once a team is headed south.
Of the 11 "replacement" head coaches since 1990, eight of them posted one win or zero victories over the balance of the season.
Great story about "replacement" coaches: In 1989, Atlanta Falcons coach Marion Campbell resigned with four games remaining in a dismal season during which the team had two players die in separate automobile accidents. Ownership tabbed Jim Hanifan to serve as the interim boss, but the longtime offensive line assistant, who had been head coach of the St. Louis Cardinals 1980-85, refused to accept unless he was guaranteed the team's record for the rest of the season would not count against his career mark. Club officials assured him, by lying, that the final four games would not count on his NFL head coaching ledger.
Despite a brief emotional upsurge in the first half of their first outing under Hanifan, when they led the San Francisco 49ers through two quarters, the Falcons lost all four games on the Hanifan watch.
"You go into (a "replacement" job) out of loyalty to an owner, because you think you can make a difference, and because you hope that it might lead to getting the job full-time," said longtime NFL assistant Rick Venturi. "But it doesn't usually end up that way, does it? I'm not saying it's a thankless job, because it offers an opportunity, but it's rarely what it's cracked up to be."
Venturi should know. He succeeded Meyer in Indianapolis after the first five games of the 1991 season and went 1-10 the rest of the way. In '96, Venturi took over for Jim Mora in New Orleans and was 1-7.
Any owner considering an in-season coaching change would do well to look at those numbers, and the record managed by other "replacement" coaches. As bad as things might be, it's still better to wait until a season concludes, it seems, before making a change on the sideline.
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SIDE LINES
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On-Line
It may not be the best line matchup of the week, but the meeting of St. Louis Rams offensive right tackle John St. Clair and New York Giants defensive left end Michael Strahan could be the most critical one. In last year's game between the two teams, Strahan strafed then-Rams right tackle Ryan Tucker, beating him for four sacks, forcing a fumble and temporarily knocking Kurt Warner to the sideline. Strahan likely smells blood in the water in the pairing with St. Clair, who got his first regular-season start in three years last week, and experienced some difficulty with Denver defensive end Trevor Pryce. A third-round choice in the 2000 draft, St. Clair played center at Virginia and is the latest St. Louis youngster to make the move from the hub out to right tackle. Unfortunately, he logged zero snaps his first two seasons, and is still learning a new position. Rams coach Mike Martz gets stubborn at times when it comes to providing double-team help, but he'd better come up with a blocking scheme that gives St. Clair some assistance on Sunday, or it could be a long day for Warner again.
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The List
Excluding the 1987 season, in which the league played three "strike games," the Washington Redskins had three players -- Mark Moseley, Max Zendejas and Chip Lohmiller -- attempt placement kicks between 1974 and 1994. If James Tuthill attempts either a field goal or extra point in Monday night's game against Philadelphia, he will become the ninth different kicker since 1995 to attempt a placement kick for the Redskins. Here's the litany of the Washington kickers since that time, and how they fared on field goals:
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Year
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Kicker
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FGs
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2001
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Brett Conway
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26-33
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2000
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Scott Bentley
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1-1
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2000
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Kris Heppner
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10-15
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2000
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Michael Husted
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4-8
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2000
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Eddie Murray
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8-12
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1999
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Brett Conway
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22-32
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1998
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David Akers
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0-2
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1998
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Cary Blanchard
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11-17
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1998
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Scott Blanton
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2-4
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1997
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Scott Blanton
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16-24
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1996
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Scott Blanton
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26-32
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1995
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Eddie Murray
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27-36
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Stat of the Week
The Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns will meet for the 58th time on Sunday and, if history is any indicator, the game figures to be a close one. In the first 57 contests, the scoring margin between the Ohio rivals is a mere two points. That's right, two points, in 57 games. Cincinnati has scored 1,158 points in the series and the Browns have tallied 1,156 points.
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Stat of the Weak
In their last two games, Super Bowl XXXVI and last Sunday's defeat at Denver Broncos, the St. Louis Rams totaled 754 yards but scored just 33 points. That's an average of 4.37 points per 100 yards. Rams averaged 8.2 points per 100 yards in the 1999 regular season and 7.52 points in 2000.
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The Last Word
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| Mackey |
Former Baltimore Colts tight end John Mackey, on quarterback Johnny Unitas, who died Wednesday after suffering a heart attack: "It was like being in the huddle with God."
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Around the league
There's little doubt that, if LeBeau is eventually bounced in Cincy, the frontrunner for his job is current defensive coordinator Mark Duffer. Two years ago, when Bruce Coslet resigned three games into the season, owner Mike Brown wanted Duffner to take over the team. But Duffner told club officials LeBeau deserved to get the job. The problem is, after last week's fiasco in the opener, Duffer could be a tough sell to fans. The defense appeared ill-prepared and out of shape against the Chargers and, for a unit that finished No. 9 statistically in 2001, played woefully. Fans will recall that game if Duffner eventually ascends to the top spot. Brown, in fact, may be forced to reconsider his plan and, for a change, might have to look outside the organization for a successor if LeBeau departs.
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| Rudd |
Long before he lost his helmet at the crucial point in last week's bizarre defeat, Cleveland Browns linebacker Dwayne Rudd lost his head, some teammates told ESPN.com. According to two players, Rudd "busted" at least eight defensive assignments during the loss to Kansas City, and two of them were critical. Early this week, Cleveland defenders acknowledged there were a lot of miscommunications on defense. Noted one player: "You would have thought, where (Rudd) was concerned, we were speaking in tongues or something. He wasn't picking up the changes at all." Despite his public apology of sorts, teammates are still looking crossways at Rudd, and also at holder Chris Gardocki, flagged for a 15-yard taunting penalty on a field goal that boosted Cleveland into a late-game lead. The two players aren't exactly pariahs in the locker room, but the nonchalant manner in which Rudd dismissed his gaffe (he told coach Butch Davis that he should not be singled out for the loss when the defense surrendered 40 points) is not sitting well with some veteran players.
Although there is more to the Indianapolis Colts' flirtation with the Los Angeles market that people want to admit, it might be difficult for owner Jim Irsay to load the moving vans. While his operatives are telling some people the Colts can extricate themselves from their lease at the RCA Dome after this season, and Indianapolis city officials concede it might cost an additional $12 million annually (at least) to meet shortfall obligations, a number of league owners aren't anxious to see the Colts head west. "No way are we just letting them go," said one NFC owner. "It's not as easy as the last time they pulled up stakes and left Baltimore. This could be a hell of a battle if Jimmy wants to fight it."
You don't want to knock a team when it wins, as Washington did in its opener, but scouts who watched video of the victory over Arizona noticed that Redskins wide receivers didn't have nearly as much separation as they did during the preseason schedule. In the opener, the Washington wideouts, particularly Rod Gardner, simply outmuscled Cardinals defensive backs for some balls. In the estimation of one personnel chief, the receivers made at least five "superb" catches. "In the preseason, (Steve) Spurrier showed he could get separation for his receivers with the plays he called," said one NFC pro scout. "In the first game, you didn't see that same separation. Hey, until we prove we can cover them, I'm going to pretty much bite my tongue. But I'll tell you privately, they don't have a real 'burner' who scares you."
The broken foot suffered by Tennessee Titans defensive end Jevon Kearse in last Sunday's season opener, which will sideline "The Freak" for 6-8 weeks, figures to be a very expensive injury for the team and the player. Kearse has this year and next season remaining on his original contract and, while Titans officials agree that he has outplayed the deal, the team has a policy of not extending contracts with more than a year left. So to address the situation, the Titans this spring gave Kearse a $750,000 advance on his $1.425 million base salary for 2002." More important, the team and agent Drew Rosenhaus crafted an incentives plan worth about $2 million, but more realistically about $1.2 million in "makeable" bonuses. The injury, however, might preclude Kearse from collecting any of the extra dough. He could have banked, for instance, an extra $500,000 if he had 17 sacks and the Titans made the playoffs. If he was defensive player of the year, the bonus would have been $750,000. From the team's standpoint, what looks to be a resurgent Tennessee defense loses a key performer, one who always attacked the pocket. The lone positive is that the injury maybe accelerated the learning curve for rookie defensive end Carlos Hall, the seventh-round choice from Arkansas, who replaced Kearse in the lineup. Hall had three sacks, seven tackles, two pass deflections and a forced fumble against the Philadelphia Eagles. The sack total equaled his output for his final two seasons at Arkansas, where he had just 12 sacks in four years. Notable is that the rest of the 2002 NFL rookie class totaled 3½ sacks last weekend.
Based on the tour de force performance Aaron Glenn enjoyed in the first game of the season, his agent and Houston Texans officials spoke again this week about a contract extension for the eight-year veteran. But there was not much progress made and Glenn, at age 31, could end up on the free-agent market at the end of the season. The two-time Pro Bowl performer, who had five tackles, an interception and six passes defensed in the victory over Dallas, is seeking a deal that averages $5.5 million-$6.5 million per year. Houston might not want to invest that in an older cornerback but, if they don't, Glenn might get his price from someone else if he keeps playing like he has discovered the fountain of youth.
With the price of wide receivers spiraling upward, look for the Seattle Seahawks to make a big push to get third-year pro Darrell Jackson signed to an extension before the season ends. Jackson is eligible for restricted free agency next spring and, while Seattle would likely keep him by making a high qualifying offer, there is no reason to gamble. He is a steadier receiver than running mate Koren Robinson and capable of catching 70-80 balls a year. Jackson has 123 receptions in two years. Very quietly in 2001, he posted 70 catches for 1,081 yards and eight touchdowns. His asking price is said to be the $6 million per year range but, given that the Seahawks don't seem close to getting offensive left tackle Walter Jones re-upped anytime soon, Jackson moves up the priority list.
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| Dayne |
This figures to be the final year in New York for 2000 first-rounder and former Heisman Trophy winner Ron Dayne. The third-year tailback hasn't demonstrated the power and burst that made him a star at Wisconsin and he is booed by the Giants Stadium faithful every time he touches the ball now. New York can release him next spring, after June 1, and he would count only $1.012 on its 2003 cap and $1.912 could be deferred to the 2004 cap. Some of Dayne's problems can be attributed to a young offensive line, but the bottom line is that he isn't the same back he was in college, and has not made the adjustment to the quicker pace of the NFL.
A lot of detractors have made Heisman Trophy winner Eric Crouch an easy target this week, after he announced he would retire from the St. Louis Rams, rather than occupy a roster spot when not playing up to his own standards. Yeah, it's true Crouch walked away from Nebraska at one point in his career and had to be talked into returning to the team. But he seemed very sincere this time about not meeting his own expectations and, to prove it, he returned the $395,000 signing bonus he got as part of his three-year contract. Go ask some cap guys how easy it is to get signing bonuses back from players after they retire or suffer a career-ending injury. In fact, the Houston Texans are still waiting for quarterback Jeff Graham to return the $100,000 salary advance they gave him this spring. Graham was released, didn't earn the money, and subsequently signed with Jacksonville.
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| Smith |
We all recall that last Sept. 11 was a Tuesday, the traditional off-day for players leaguewide, and a day when Emmitt Smith was to have appeared at a banquet in Dallas along with Connie Payton, the widow of Walter Payton. But when the terrorist attacks occurred, one of Smith's first thoughts was of Connie Payton, sitting in her hotel suite, having to watch events transpire all by herself. Smith phoned Mrs. Payton and invited her to come sit with him and his wife, Pat, and watch the television accounts. The three spent the day together and the event further forged an already strong relationship. The Payton family is thrilled that it is Emmitt Smith, a player of dignity and class, who will break the all-time rushing record. The compassion and the regard that Emmitt and Pat Smith demonstrated toward Connie Payton last Sept. 11 brought the families even closer together. "It meant a lot to have somebody else to talk to that day, to share your fears and concerns, and they were there for me," said Connie Payton.
Look for the Philadelphia Eagles to consummate contract extensions for a few players around mid-season. Philadelphia still has a league-high $6.18 million in cap room remaining, can't possibly spend it on the poor caliber of player still in the free agent market, and has targeted a few veterans (free safety Brian Dawkins, defensive tackle Corey Simon, perhaps defensive end Hugh Douglas) for extensions. The other teams with more than $3 million in available cap funds, according to NFL Players Association records: Arizona with $4.39 million; Cincinnati, $4.104 million; Minnesota, $4.085 million; Seattle, $3.653 million; Houston, $3.499 million; Oakland, $3.44 million.
Here's the breakdown on the contract extension New Orleans quarterback Aaron Brooks signed last week: A signing bonus of $5 million and then a second-tier option bonus of $5.75 million due next March to trigger the 2004-2007 seasons. The base salaries are $750,000 (2002), $1.5 million (2003), $2.75 million (2004), $5.5 million (2005), $6.25 million (2006) and $7.25 million (2007). There are workout bonuses of $250,000 each for the 2003-2007 seasons. The cap value for this year is just $1.587 million but by the 2005 season escalates to $7.733 million.
The contract extension that New York Jets center Kevin Mawae signed last Saturday included a $7 million signing bonus and base salaries of $2 million (2002), $1 million (2003), $800,000 (2004), $1.95 million (2005), $2.8 million (2006) and $2.7 million (2007). The team must pay next spring a bonus of $2.5 million to exercise options on the 2005-2007 seasons. There is a $100,000 workout bonus and $25,068 in other incentives for this year, making for a hefty $5.586 million salary cap value. But the cap numbers are farly palatable then in ensuing years: $2.667 million for 2003, $2.47 million for 2004 and $3.616 million for 2005. Then they spiral upward, to $4.467 million in 2006 and $4.367 million for 2007.
Punts: Much was made of the fact the Texans started five rookies on offense in their inaugural regular-season game, the most by any team since 1970. But on defense, coach Dom Capers fielded a veteran group, one that averaged 4.8 seasons of previous NFL experience. … Heading into the game against the Eagles on Monday night, Washington's Steve Spurrier is 37-0 in September home games in 19 seasons as a head coach. … Packers quarterback Brett Favre has now thrown a personal-best 153 consecutive passes without an interception … . Giants quarterback Kerry Collins has recorded the last 1,416 pass attempts for the team, a league best … . San Francisco coaches like the aggressiveness of first-round cornerback Mike Rumph, but they feel he gambled too much in his maiden outing against the Giants, and want him to be more disciplined in zone coverages … . The undermanned Atlanta defense desperately needs Travis Hall to get back on the field, to add some size to a smallish 3-4 front. From what we're hearing, however, Hall could be sidelined by a lingering groin injury through the team's Sept. 29 bye week … . It didn't happen this week, but Terry Fair should soon supplant Reggie Howard as a starting cornerback in Carolina. The Panthers coaches like what they have seen of Fair and he has displayed no problems with past foot injuries … . The ankle injury nagging Chicago quarterback Jim Miller is bad enough that he needed an injection last week to get onto the field. It's a little better this week, but Miller still may require a painkiller to play against the Falcons.
Len Pasquarelli is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.
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