There is a reason those annual April exercises in futility known as the "mock draft" bear such a derisive name. Every personnel man or scout, even ones you have known for 20 years or more, specializes in playing high-stakes liar's poker this time of the spring. Few general managers want to see in print the name of the first-round prospect they actually plan to select.

The best a guy can hope to do is narrow down the two or three players in whom a team actually has legitimate interest in the first round. And so, with dunce cap firmly planted on noggin, and now vulnerable to the slings and arrows of the public, here's a look at the various scenarios that are being discussed by the teams with choices in the top 10:

1. Houston: Even after owner Bob McNair announced last week the team will choose Fresno State quarterback David Carr, there were some internet conspiracy theorists postulating Houston would still try to trade the pick. Uh, sorry, folks. The contract still isn't agreed to yet, because the two sides are awaiting league approval of some elements and there remains work to be done in a few areas of the deal, but Carr is the man.

2. Carolina: Contrary to some reports, the arthroscopic shoulder surgery quarterback Chris Weinke underwent on Wednesday will not force the Panthers to grab Joey Harrington of Oregon. The choice is between North Carolina defensive end Julius Peppers and cornerback Quentin Jammer of Texas. Given the lack of quality at cornerback, the fact projected starter Rashard Anderson may not play until October because of neck surgery, and the very suspect performance of free agent corner DeRon Jenkins at the recent mini-camp, there is some feeling Jammer would be the prudent choice. But the consensus in Charlotte is still for Peppers and he is probably the pick.

3. Detroit: There are a number of teams -- Dallas, San Diego and perhaps Oakland primary among them -- that would like to trade up to this spot and select Jammer if he is still on the board. At the same time, the Lions aren't getting any action from clubs interested in Harrington in this slot. Detroit is big into the smoke-blowing game, teasing teams that they will take Harrington and even sending coach Marty Mornhinweg to the workout of wide receiver Ashley Lelie on Friday, to present a case they might deal down. Jammer is the most logical choice in this spot, either by the Lions or a team that moves up to get him.

4. Buffalo: Bottom line is that general manager Tom Donahoe isn't going to be able to pry quarterback Drew Bledsoe away from the New England Patriots, but that doesn't mean he will go for Harrington, since he doesn't like his arm strength. Like several teams in the top 10, the Bills wouldn't mind moving down a few spots, but not too far down. If they stay here, it appears the choice is among three players: offensive tackle Mike Williams, safety Roy Williams or defensive tackle Ryan Sims.

5. San Diego: The crying need is for an offensive tackle and the scouts really like Mike Williams. They will consider tackle Bryant McKinnie, but general manager John Butler shares the opinion of some of his peers about the suspect work ethic of Miami man-mountain. If Jammer would somehow slide here, the Chargers would be ecstatic, and they will also consider Miami cornerback Phillip Buchanan. Want a dark horse possibility? Try wide receiver Donte Stallworth of Tennessee, who is getting pretty good play in the San Diego draft meetings.

6. Dallas: The man in Jerry Jones' crosshairs is Jammer, but the odds aren't good that the Cowboys will be able to move up to snatch him. If they can't, the debate will be between Buchanan and Tennessee defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, both of whom would start immediately on a defense that was surprisingly solid in 2001. Word is that Jones prefers Haynesworth in a close call, because the former Vols masher would help protect free agent tackle La'Roi Glover, the way Norman Hand once did in New Orleans.

7. Minnesota: If either of the top two offensive tackles slip here, the Vikings almost have to take one, or face the possibility of moving Pro Bowl center Matt Birk to left tackle. If Mike Williams and McKinnie are both off the board, which is likely, then the choice becomes a defensive tackle. That makes Sims a real possibility for the Vikings.

8. Kansas City: The Chiefs like Sims, who was coached at North Carolina by former Dick Vermeil defensive coordinator John Bunting. But they also like defensive tackle John Henderson of Tennessee and are taking a hard look at Harrington. Owner Lamar Hunt, who doesn't typically involve himself in football matters and probably won't this time either, is said to be weary of having to always sign a free agent quarterback for his team. He would like a home-grown product for the future. Kansas City hasn't selected a quarterback in the first round since Todd Blackledge in 1983, hasn't had a home-bred quarterback lead the team in passing since Bill Kenney in '87. The problem is, Vermeil won't be around forever, and might not want to make a pick that will only help his eventual successor. The signing of free agent Johnnie Morton probably has taken the Chiefs out of the Stallworth mode, but he remains much admired in their war room. The most likely scenario here is a defensive tackle.

9. Jacksonville: Another team that might turn cartwheels if one of the offensive tackles, most likely McKinnie, somehow slipped to its spot. The Jags would certainly consider Buchanan if he remains on the board and, since Keenan McCardell is persona non grata now, Stallworth could be a possibility. In the end, though, the choice seems to boil down to a defensive tackle and Wendell Bryant of Wisconsin is well-liked by Jacksonville personnel officials.

10. Cincinnati: The Bengals have been concentrating on four players -- Harrington, Roy Williams, Buchanan and Miami tight end Jeremy Shockey. But if Bryant is still around, there may be some sentiment to take him and use him at defensive left end, where many scouts agree that he could play. Harrington might just be too tempting if he is still on the board. Then again, if he is, the Bengals might get a phone call or two from a team wanting to trade up to this spot.

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