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Monday, September 17
 
Fewer wild cards wouldn't be such a big loss

By Len Pasquarelli
ESPN.com

Should the NFL decide to play its entire 16-game schedule and scuttle the wild-card week, as it is expected to announce soon, there likely will be at least quiet criticism from owners concerned that a reduced playoff field will scuttle their teams' postseason chances.

Indeed, if you subscribe to the contention that the playoffs represent a "second season," and that all 12 postseason qualifiers enter the championship tournament with a new lease on life and the same opportunity to grab the Super Bowl ring, then such objections would be legitimate.

Elvis Grbac
A playoff format with just one AFC wild card could squeeze out a top team like Elvis Grbac's Ravens.
"I'm definitely opposed to reducing the (number of) wild-card teams," said Philadelphia Eagles owner Jeff Lurie, whose team might be caught in the crunch and who echoed sentiments expressed by several other owners. "You're going to have a lot of good football teams locked out of the playoffs and the product will be diluted."

For sure, it's a noble thought, but it's one based on the flawed premise that the last two wild-card teams from each conference are actually competitive. History has indicated, however, that not all playoff teams are created equal.

Certainly there will be severe ramifications, particularly for the networks, if the 16-game plan is enacted. In truth, though, while a move to eliminate two wild-card spots would be lamentable and result in the NFL paring its standard playoff field by one-third, the bottom line probably would be inconsequential in terms of an eventual Super Bowl champion.

Since the current 12-team playoff format was adopted in 1990, there have been 44 clubs which have qualified for the Nos. 5- and 6-seeded berths in each of the conferences. Those are the same postseason spots that will be cut if commissioner Paul Tagliabue does away with the wild-card bracket and uses it to make up the games cancelled last weekend.

Of those 44 teams, 32 lost their opening playoff matchups by an average of 12.4 points. Fifteen of those 32 defeats were by 14 points or more. Ten of the No. 5 or No. 6 seeds won their opening game and then were defeated in the divisional playoff round. Just two of the final two wild-card entries, the Indianapolis Colts in 1995 and the Jacksonville Jaguars in '96, advanced to the conference championship game.

Both the Colts and Jaguars lost in the conference title game, imploding their Super Bowl dreams and reinforcing the notion Cinderella rarely actually fits into the glass slipper.

Under the current postseason format only four wild-card teams advanced to the Super Bowl -- the Buffalo Bills (1992), Denver Broncos (1997), Tennessee Titans ('99) and Baltimore Ravens (2000) -- but all were fourth-seeded qualifiers in the AFC, the top wild-card team. And those three teams had at least 12 regular-season victories apiece and an aggregate record of 37-11.

"Given everything that you have to go through if you're one of those last two wild-cards teams, staying around in the playoffs for any length of time is (a hard thing)," said former Bills coach Wade Phillips.

Although cutting back the playoff pool to its 1977 level of eight franchises is simply the easiest option among all of the unpalatable alternatives, it probably won't alter the outcome of who meets in the Superdome for Super Bowl XXXVI on Jan. 27.

Translation: Although cutting back the playoff pool to its 1977 level of eight franchises is simply the easiest option among all of the unpalatable alternatives, it probably won't alter the outcome of who meets in the Superdome for Super Bowl XXXVI on Jan. 27.

What it might do, in what could be a positive for the fans, is make every game that much more important to teams. If teams go into next weekend's schedule knowing there is little margin for error, and that there will be just one wild-card team per conference, the level of competitiveness might be raised. A team that comes out flat in any given week could cost itself a postseason berth.

That's not to suggest every game isn't important in the NFL, but to acknowledge there will be increased pressure to maintain a high degree of excellence. The elimination of the final two wild-card spots in each conference also elevates the potential for that spot to be decided in a tiebreaker, and that places extra emphasis on all divisional and conference matchups, coaches and players allowed.

"It could be a real dogfight for that one (wild-card) spot," said St. Louis Rams coach Mike Martz. "Having two fewer wild-cards means more teams might be eliminated going into the final week or two. But it also means you could have three of four teams battling for that one wild-card berth in the last week of play. It's going to be wild."

That could be especially true in the AFC, where there seem to be two powerhouse teams in each of the three divisions. Consider how slight the differences between the Titans and Ravens in the Central, the Miami Dolphins and Colts in the East and the Raiders and Broncos in the West. Those appear to be the top six teams in the AFC, and two of them won't qualify for a playoff berth if that first weekend of the postseason is eliminated.

"Sure, it's going to be hard on everyone," said Minnesota Vikings coach Dennis Green, co-chair of the league's powerful competition committee. "But to just play the 15 games, and deal with all the inequities that would present, would be even worse. There's really no way, it seems, to make the regular-season schedule work, and keep the (aberrations) to a minimum, unless we play all 16 games."

Of course, moving the postponed Week 2 contests into the wild-card weekend, Jan. 5-6, will pose some scheduling abnormalities as well.

The Bills and Cleveland Browns each would finish the season with three straight road games. Jacksonville would play four of its final five contests on the road and the Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys and Eagles three of their last four.

On the flip side, the Ravens would play four out of their last five games at home, and the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers each would conclude the regular season with three home games in a row. The Colts, Detroit Lions, Washington Redskins and the New York Giants would be at home for three of the last four weeks.

Len Pasquarelli is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.








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