Marshall Faulk scored four touchdowns, but the St. Louis Rams still lost to the Tampa Buccaneers, 38-35, in a scintillating Monday night game. Why? How?
Amid all the spectacular plays and the Bucs' startlingly wide-open
offense -- the Warrick Dunn pitch to Shaun King was an all-time highlight --
there was this steady constant: Dunn, the Bucs' No. 28, ran for nearly twice
as many yards (145) than the Rams' more celebrated No. 28 (Faulk gained 79
yards on the ground). Overall, Tampa Bay ran the ball 32 times for 205 yards
and allowed the Rams only 20 carries for 90 yards.
With a postseason berth on the line, it was the season's first
unofficial survive-and-advance playoff game. And because Tampa Bay was more
proficient at running and stopping the run, they are in and the Rams, most
likely, are out.
|  | | James Stewart's 164-yard day helped lead the Lions past the Jets on Sunday. |
"It was one of the greatest games I ever watched," ESPN.com's Tom
Donahoe, the Pittsburgh Steelers' longtime personnel expert said Wednesday.
"I didn't want it to end. You just never expected to see the Bucs open it
up, but the difference was Warrick Dunn. The Rams couldn't stop him.
"One of the things I learned early on from Coach (Chuck) Noll was the
importance of stopping the run and being able to run it. It's probably not
as appealing to the fans, but all those other things are just gingerbread."
It was that thread that ran through Week 16's critical results. Quite
simply, teams that didn't control the running game (the Rams, Jets, Vikings,
Raiders and Broncos) lost. Those who did (the Bucs, Lions, Ravens, Packers,
Titans and Giants) won.
In another head-to-head contest with major playoff implications,
Detroit featured James Stewart and ran the ball 44 times for 210 yards. The Jets were a measly 18 for 51. Predictably, they lost 10-7. Curtis Martin,
New York's marquee back, carried only 16 times.
Detroit head coach Gary Moeller wondered aloud Monday why the Jets hadn't handed the ball to Martin more often.
"To me, the whole thing is if you can run and stop the run and limit
the big plays," Moeller said. "It's about time of possession, field
position and all those good things.
"If I had a choice between a great running game and stopping the run,
I'd stop it. If they never score, they can't beat you, right?"
Right.
Turnovers are consistently the biggest factor in winning and losing,
but ground control is close behind. Running the ball keeps the clock moving
and shortens the game. The risk factor, as opposed to passing, is far lower,
something that goes over well in a league that is the equivalent of the
far-right fringe of the Republican Party. Another benefit: With a bigger
slice of time of possession, the defense gets a longer rest, something that
often manifests itself in the fourth quarter.
All of these factors worked against the Rams on Monday night. Warner
threw three interceptions -- the last a game-ender to Tampa Bay safety John
Lynch. During the Bucs' 13-play, 80-yard winning touchdown drive, the Rams'
defense, never particularly sound, looked tired.
Moeller thinks there is a psychological advantage to running the ball
as well.
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“ |
There's just something about having the ability to run. It appears you're more dominant. There's nothing more frustrating than having someone run the ball. You just get the feeling you're not as tough as they are. ” |
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— Gary Moeller, Lions head coach |
"There's just something about having the ability to run," he said.
"It appears you're more dominant. There's nothing more frustrating than
having someone run the ball. You just get the feeling you're not as tough as
they are."
By subtracting a team's per-game run defense from the average run
offense, you can determine how well they control games. By this measure, the
Baltimore Ravens are far ahead of the field. The Ravens' run defense is a
league-best 61.3 yards per game, while the run offense is a robust 142.3
yards (fifth overall). That works out to a margin of plus-81, 22.5 yards
ahead of the next best team, the Giants.
Eight of the top 10 teams in net rushing yards have already earned a
playoff berth. A ninth, Pittsburgh, still has a chance to qualify. All of
the teams with 10, 11 or 12 wins are represented, with the exception of Miami
and Philadelphia, teams that, nevertheless, have positive run nets.
Across the board, Week 16's results were dominated by run dominance.
This is what happens, according to Donahoe, when the games begin to mean
more.
"It's always important, but with so much more on the line, coaches
tend to get more conservative," he said. "They're afraid of turnovers and
mistakes, so they do what they probably should have been doing in the first
place."
A few examples. First, the good ...
The Ravens ran their league-best winning streak to six games in the
Arizona desert with a muscular 13-7 victory over the Cardinals. Rookie Jamal
Lewis, the No. 5 pick in the draft, carried 29 times for 126 yards, while
Arizona's Thomas Jones, the No. 7 pick, was 14 for 39. For the 31st consecutive game, the Ravens did not allow a runner to reach 100 yards.
On a snowy field in Cleveland, Tennessee's Eddie George carried the ball
25 times in the first half alone. He finished with 34 carries for 176 yards
and three touchdowns and the Browns were finished for the season.
... and now the bad:
The Vikings held all the cards for the NFC home-field advantage, but
allowed Green Bay's Ahman Green to rush 26 times for 161 yards. Minnesota's
Robert Smith, among the league-leaders all season long, carried 10 times for
26 yards. Thus, Green Bay 33, Minnesota 28.
Denver's rookie sensation, Mike Anderson was stoned by Kansas City,
gaining only 62 yards on 12 carries. Meanwhile, Tony Richardson carried 23
times for 156 yards, the most by a Chief in a decade. Denver, which had been
in position to take control of the AFC West, saw its six-game winning streak
end, losing 20-7.
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Net rushing yards
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Here are the top 10 teams in terms of net running yards, the difference
between rushing yards and rushing yards allowed. Note: Eight have already
qualified for the playoffs and one (Pittsburgh) still has a chance to
qualify:
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|
Team/Rec.
|
Rush yds.
|
Allowed
|
Diff.
|
|
Baltimore (11-4)
|
142.3
|
61.3
|
+81.0
|
|
N.Y. Giants (11-4)
|
128.6
|
72.4
|
+56.2
|
|
Oakland (11-4)
|
152.7
|
98.1
|
+54.6
|
|
Tennessee (12-3)
|
128.4
|
86.9
|
+41.5
|
|
Denver (10-5)
|
144.3
|
103.5
|
+40.8
|
|
New Orleans (10-5)
|
133.0
|
95.1
|
+37.9
|
|
Tampa Bay (10-5)
|
133.3
|
100.9
|
+32.4
|
|
Pittsburgh (8-7)
|
141.1
|
110.8
|
+30.3
|
|
Cincinnati (4-11)
|
147.5
|
119.1
|
+28.4
|
|
Minnesota (11-4)
|
137.5
|
111.0
|
+26.5
|
Tennessee guard Bruce Matthews, who helped clear the way for George in
Cleveland, understands the value of a run-structured offense and defense.
The Titans will carry that philosophy into Monday night's regular-season
finale against Dallas, looking to lock up the AFC home-field advantage.
"That would be huge for us," Matthews said earlier this week. "Last
year, along the way, we kind of learned and overcame ourselves, especially
in the Buffalo game, where it took us awhile to get going.
"We've come to understand NFL playoff football. Our game is engineered
for that style, when things are tightened up and weaknesses are exposed. We'
re not the flashiest team, but we've very, very sound. That's what running
the ball and stopping the run will do for
you."
Greg Garber is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
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