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| Thursday, May 15 All four AFC West teams have playoff dreams By John Clayton ESPN.com |
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Dick Vermeil is staking everything on this season. He's in the final year of his three-year contract and he wants his Kansas City Chiefs to make their Super Bowl run. The situation is similar to 1999 when Vermeil was under pressure to complete his turnaround of the St. Louis Rams. The Rams, thanks to the magical season of Kurt Warner, won the Super Bowl and Vermeil retired. The only trouble this time is that Vermeil is in the AFC West, traditionally one of the toughest divisions in football. No one understands this more than Vermeil, who studies schedules and trends more than most coaches. With the Rams, Vermeil navigated one of the easiest schedules in NFL history to beat the Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV.
"There is no question it is a very difficult, intense division," Vermeil said. "Look at last year, there were no losers in the division. Every team was 8-8 or better." Vermeil recently received his compilation of schedule stats updated from last year. Once again, he saw the same trends. Super Bowl winners are usually teams with easier schedules. In the AFC West, there are no breaks. "The No. 1 criteria in winning in the NFL is how many losing teams you play," Vermeil said. "The Tampa Bay Buccaneers played eight teams that had losing records at the end of the season. The Bucs won all eight. In the year we won the Super Bow in St. Louis, we played 11 losing teams. In the last five years, the five world champions played a total of 45 games against losing teams and beat 43 of them. If you are going to win the Super Bowl, you've got to keep playing losing teams." Unfortunately, losing is the last thing on the minds of those in the AFC West. Each team dreams of winning the Super Bowl. Each AFC West team has aggressively pursued trades and free agent signings to have the opportunity to win a ring. Unlike any other division, the AFC West is the one in which owners delegate decision making to football people. Heck, the Raiders are owned by a former coach, Al Davis. General managers get to manage. Coaches are hired guns whose resumes usually include success against division teams. Mike Shanahan (Denver) and Marty Schottenheimer (San Diego) are in charge because it gives their franchises the best chance to beat the Raiders. Vermeil was hired in Kansas City to fulfill Carl Peterson's longtime goal of getting past the Raiders for the Super Bowl. Vermeil looked at last year's numbers and came away even more impressed with the Raiders. They defied the odds. With a new coach, Bill Callahan, the Raiders went to the Super Bowl and ended up as the AFC's top seed despite playing one of the hardest schedules. "The Raiders went to the Super Bowl playing only three teams with losing records and that defies the odds," Vermeil said. "Maybe they didn't play well in the Super Bowl but that doesn't take away what they did. All of the teams in this division played similar schedules, but the Raiders did a great job in winning against winning teams." Do not -- under any circumstance -- hear a defeatist attitude in Vermeil's voice or anybody else in the AFC West because of how difficult the division is. Each franchise spends to the salary cap. Each franchise battles each other for the top free agents. When AFC West teams appear to be "capped out," they don't mind digging into the future for more resources. It can be argued that the Chiefs are among the five most improved teams in football. They were the highest-scoring team in the NFL (29.1) and had the fourth-ranked offense. But the Chiefs ranked last on defense and gave up 24.9 points a game. Vermeil's formula should be no different than the Titans and Colts the year before. Improve the defensive numbers to the top 15 or better and go to the playoffs. The Titans and Colts jumped from the bottom of the 2001 defensive stats and finished 10th and eighth, respectively. The Titans won 11 games and the Colts won 10, and each made the playoffs. To get more impact out of their front seven on defense, the Chiefs tried to raid the Eagles and went one for two. They snagged outside linebacker Shawn Barber but failed to get defensive end Hugh Douglas as their pass-rusher. Instead, they settled for former Packers defensive tackle Vonnie Holliday and added Rams cornerback Dexter McCleon as a third cornerback. "With the addition of Barber, our three starting linebackers are three of the smartest players on our football team," Vermeil said. "Barber was a great addition. He's faster than we initially thought. Our defense gave up 40 percent of the yards in 10 percent of the snaps. We gave up too many big plays." The Chiefs also simplified the defensive scheme to allow the players to be in better positions to make plays. During the past two years, the Chiefs had a more complicated scheme that broke down if a defender or two was out of position. Vermeil expects big seasons from defensive end Eric Hicks and second-year defensive tackle Ryan Sims. The return of free safety Jerome Woods adds leadership to a more talented secondary. In Denver, Shanahan found a new quarterback. Tired of winning less than 60 percent of the games that Brian Griese started, the Broncos signed Jake Plummer to a seven-year, $40 million contract and will release Griese after June 1. Plummer may not be the quarterback who can single-handedly take a team to the Super Bowl, but Shanahan believes he's the right fit in Denver. For one, Plummer will be throwing to the most experienced receiving corps he's been around -- receivers Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey and tight end Shannon Sharpe. Plummer's biggest transition will be adjusting to an offense that should limit his tendency to throw interceptions. Though Shanahan runs the West Coast offense, his system is more based on play-action running plays featuring the blocking schemes of Alex Gibbs. Clinton Portis is a Pro Bowl-caliber runner, something Plummer has never had. On defense, the Broncos made only one major roster move, replacing defensive tackle Chester McGlockton with run-stopping Daryl Gardener. Defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes is gone, replaced by promoted linebackers coach Ed Croyer. Of all the teams in the division, the Chargers made the boldest moves. Schottenheimer continues to build around halfback LaDainian Tomlinson by signing Lorenzo Neal to be his lead blocker on short running plays and by bringing in the league's most dangerous deep threat (wide receiver David Boston) to keep teams from stacking the line of scrimmage. Quarterback Drew Brees has to make a simple read. If eight defenders are at the line of scrimmage, he can audible to a deep Boston pass because the 245-pound receiver will be one-on-one against a cornerback. Schottenheimer's boldest move was going young and quicker on defense. Gone are longtime Charger institutions Junior Seau and Rodney Harrison. Opponents tore up the Chargers in passing situations last season because they were slow. The Chargers will live or die on the development of the league's youngest secondary. At cornerback, they have Quentin Jammer, Tay Cody, Sammy Davis and Drayton Florence. At safety, converted cornerback Ryan McNeil and Rogers Beckett have to handle the duties until draft choices Terrence Kiel and Hanik Milligan develop. Finally, the Raiders' biggest success was just maintaining. After the season, they were $50 million over the salary cap. The Raiders did a remarkable job keeping their team together. They cut only six players, but three -- wide receiver James Jett, safety Anthony Dorsett and halfback Terry Kirby -- haven't signed with any teams and are available if the Raiders need them. The only departures are defensive linemen Sam Adams and Regan Upshaw and cornerback Tory James. For minimal salaries, the Raiders signed Cecil Martin and Chris Hetherington to replace Jon Ritchie at fullback and Dana Stubblefield to fill the vacancy of Adams at defensive tackle. On paper, the AFC West has four playoff-caliber teams. It won't be easy, but it will be fun. John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com. |
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