Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 13.

First ... Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: The Chargers overtime win two weeks ago proved to players and coaches that Marty Schottenheimer won't have the freefall of a year ago when they went from 5-2 to 5-11.

But the next two home games will determine the direction of this year's team. Victories at home against the Broncos on Sunday and the Raiders the next week could make them the favorites to win the wacky AFC West. A split would keep them in the hunt. Two losses wouldn't eliminate them because the schedule lightens up for the final three games, but the likelihood isn't great.

Schottenheimer's worry for Sunday's game against the Broncos is how they match up against the Broncos. Ray Rhodes' defense is so good against the run that teams prefer ignoring the run to attack the perimeters. The Broncos defensive line is overpowering. Chester McGlockton can be unblockable. Trevor Pryce, a Pro Bowl tackle moved to end, is unblockable. Teams only get 72.7 yards a game against Denver.

Instead, the Broncos have to find ways to stop the short pass, the specialty of the Chargers. The Raiders exposed that flaw a couple weeks ago when Rich Gannon passed them silly.

	Tomlinson was held to 48 rushing yards in the first game against Denver.

That's where Schottenheimer has a problem. To beat the Broncos defense may mean changing offensive emphasis, and that is something that the Chargers can't do. They win with LaDainian Tomlinson running the ball. In Denver's 26-9 victory over San Diego in October, the Broncos jumped to a lead and made Tomlinson's contributions meaningless.

It's pretty evident that the Chargers aren't built for comebacks. If they fall behind by 10 points, they could lose by more than three touchdowns. Drew Brees can handle the close comebacks, but he's not yet at the stage where he can overcome big deficits.

What also complicates things for the Chargers is that their offensive line has two banged up tackles -- Damion McIntosh and Vaughn Parker. Wide receiver Curtis Conway is banged up, too.

But, as the 49ers learned two weeks ago, don't count out the Chargers at home or at anytime. No coach has come into this AFC West since Mike Shanahan with the knowledge of how to win games that Schottenheimer has. He mastered that formula in Kansas City and he is 2-1 so far in the AFC West with back-to-back home divisional home games at his disposal.

The Broncos played well enough to win Sunday night with Steve Beuerlein at quarterback, but the Colts came back and beat them with field goals. This is an important game for Shanahan. Schottenheimer is a dangerous threat he must face each year in the AFC West. His worst nightmare is letting Schottenheimer establish himself as a division winner in his first year.

All Schottenheimer has to do is balance enough running with passing to be in contention by the final three minutes. That's the only way the Chargers have a chance.

And 10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: The Saints had everything set up. They had the NFC's best record. They had an easy closing schedule. Their toughest games were at home. But all of a sudden, that has slipped away. The Bucs gained momentum thanks to a tough defense and gutty offense. If the Bucs can pull out the victory in the Superdome, they would jump to a three-game lead over the Saints and leave Jim Haslett scrambling only for the last wild-card spot. Deuce McAllister is bothered by an ankle injury that kept him on the sidelines last Sunday. Saints quarterback Aaron Brooks tried to do too much last week and made three horrible turnovers, two that were interceptions in key situations in the red zone. And the defense hasn't given up less than 20 points in any game this season. No, this isn't the end of the Saints. They don't play a winning team after Sunday, so they won't be eliminated if they lose. At the beginning of the season, the Saints surprised everyone by winning against the toughest opening schedule in football. Success spoiled them. Of course, every team has had its slump. A Saints victory could set up a closing rush in which they could run the table. A Bucs victory would put them in a position to need only a victory over the Falcons next week to wrap up possible homefield advantage in the NFC.

9. New York Jets at Oakland Raiders: A year ago, the Jets won enough ugly games that they called themselves "Shrek." A 24-22 season-ending victory over the Raiders in Networks Associate Coliseum set up a playoff game the following week, with Oakland drilling then 38-24. Well, the Jets aren't just winning ugly heading into this Monday night showdown. Chad Pennington has been the most efficient passer east of Rich Gannon. Sam Cowart, Sam Garnes and Josh Evans have revitalized the defense with leadership and big plays. Back-to-back Curtis Martin 100-yard games sent shock waves through the league that maybe Martin's ankle problems are over. But the Raiders are the last team you want to face. Gannon is carving up defenses at record levels. With 319 completions in 11 games, he's on pace to break Warren Moon's completion record of 404 by the first quarter of the Raiders 15th game. Since the Raiders decided to go into a pass first, pass second and think run third offense, they have won the past three games by an average margin of 17 points. What the Jets can't afford to do is let the face-painted Raiders crowd and the artistic stroke of Gannon on the short passes destroy them.

	Lucas has shown marked improvement in his last two starts.

8. Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: When the Dolphins needed him the most, Ray Lucas stepped up and won two games. Most importantly, he allowed for Jay Fiedler to get in another week of practice on his broken right thumb so he wouldn't have been forced to make his return on a cold day on a turf field. But Dave Wannstedt needs one more good effort from Lucas. Ricky Williams is running at a tireless pace and Lucas isn't making the turnovers that killed the Dolphins week ago. The worry for the Dolphins is that the Bills are desperate. They can see that their season is crashing. The defense is allowing 28 points a game, which would break a franchise record. In seven games, they haven't forced a turnover. The defense has only 16 turnovers all season. And everyone warned the Bills that Drew Bledsoe didn't have the luxury of hitting a slump. He has. Those touchdown drives of the first eight games are becoming field goal drives. Bledsoe's offense has produced only 36 points in the last three games. Giving up 28 points a game, you need 36 in one week. Of course, the Bills weren't supposed to be a playoff team this season. The Bledsoe trade only made them competitive. A victory would keep the Bills hopes alive, but this may be their final stand.

7. St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles believe they can win with third-string quarterback, A.J. Feeley. The Rams can't win a game with their starting quarterback, Kurt Warner. This is the classic matchup of two smart coaches who believe their offenses are so good that you can win no matter who is behind center. Marc Bulger filled in for the Rams and won five games, and Koy Detmer looked fantastic beating the 49ers before dislocating his left elbow. Feeley is a pure pocket passer, but he has some mobility for Andy Reid's West coast offense. He has a strong arm. What he lacks is experience. This is his first start since 1999 when he was a junior in college. Rams defensive coordinator Lovie Smith will have to confuse him with his 4-1-6 scheme and try to mix in a lot of zone blitzes. Warner, meanwhile, will probably be trying to keep the offense going with his own rookie, Lamar Gordon, in the backfield. Marshall Faulk's high ankle sprain probably isn't up to playing on the turf field at Veterans Stadium. As much as this game is a matchup of two interesting offensive coaches, the defensive game plans will be the determining factor in who wins.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars: Is Bill Cowher rushing things by trying to get Tommy Maddox back after missing only one game because of a spinal injury and a bad concussion? That might be the case, but remember, Maddox, is the quarterback that Cowher has designated to take this team to the playoffs. From the pure sense of courage, Cowher needed to get Maddox back on the field so he can get the thoughts of the injury behind him. After all, a good as Kordell Stewart has been as a starter and filling in for Maddox last year, the Steelers always have had trouble against Tom Coughlin's defense on the road. Maddox's ability to make quick passes and smart decision will be a different look to the Steelers offense. The Steelers, though, have to be concerned because they are banged up. The interior of the offensive line is already without center Jeff Hartings and maybe be without first-round choice Kendall Simmons. And Cowher has been patching the inside linebacker positions and holes in their nickel pass defense because of injuries. The Jaguars know that a loss ends any hopes of the playoffs. That makes them even more dangerous to Cowher.

5. Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren ordered his players not to talk about or make any retaliation against Terrell Owens in Sharpiegate II. Still, Holmgren is a smart coach. The site of Owens, who pulled out a Sharpie and presented an autographed football to a business advisor in a field box in Seahawks Stadium, has his defense inspired. Defensive tackles Chad Eaton and John Randle want blood. The secondary was embarrassed and wouldn't mind an extra hit. Of course, Owens loves the attention and the challenge. The problem for the 49ers is that they have seemed to lose their way after a 7-2 start. Jose Cortez cost them the Chargers game by missing field goals, and the team decided Tuesday the symbol of that loss shouldn't be around. They cut Cortez. Against the Eagles on Monday night, the 49ers looked uninspired. The offense seemed to go back to a couple of years ago when all it could do is get the ball to Owens. The pass defense has been getting worse instead of better since using a first-round choice on Mike Rumph, so he found his way to the bench by the second half. 49ers coach Steve Mariucci will try to have his players rally around Owens. But, the smart thing to do is run the ball. Everyone runs on the Seahawks. But, for this one game, Eaton and Randle might be so inspired that they have a chance to stop a few of the Garrison Hearst carries.

4. Tennessee Titans at New York Giants: Jim Fassel may have been making the play-calls of late, but he's been doing it with mirrors. Amani Toomer is Kerry Collins' only true threat at wide receiver. Jeremy Shockey is a Rookie of the Year candidate, but to rely this much on a rookie this year is tough. The Giants are as thin in the starting lineup as any team in football, and the injuries may finally be catching up to them. Last week's loss to the Texans was like a dagger in the heart. Titans coach Jeff Fisher knows that. So his strategy will be to attack the Giants early and convince them that their playoff hopes are done. Steve McNair is usually good with the football, but he made a few uncharacteristic turnovers last week. Expect McNair, who won't having receiver Kevin Dyson, to be aggressive with his throws early to get the lead, and then let Eddie George handle the rest. The Giants can't stop the run. They are allowing 121.5 yards a game and 4.7 yards a carry.

3. Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings: Who would have believed the Falcons would be in position to be complacent? Falcons coach Dan Reeves has to warn his players not to get too overconfident and worry about next week's game against the Bucs in Tampa. This is a dangerous game for the Falcons. As exciting as Michael Vick is on turf running around and making plays, Daunte Culpepper can be equally stunning. Despite weighing over 260 pounds, Culpepper is quick on his feet and loves making plays on the run. With nothing to lose, Culpepper may try to get into a scoring shootout with Vick. So far, Vick has had shootout games and hasn't had turnovers. He can't afford interceptions in this one. The Vikings have another minor Randy Moss controversy because he pulled himself out of a play last week, but expect the team to rally around him. Moss could have a good day against the pass defense. Winning on the road isn't easy. The Falcons haven't lost a road game since the opener. That's another worry for Reeves. The odds of being this good on the road are against him.

2. Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts have the right focus. In the past three games, the Colts have outscored opponents, 78-36. Part of that success was not allowing opponents to get off to three-touchdown leads in the first half and getting a slow start on offense. Left tackle Tarik Glenn addressed those concerns during a Friday practice before the Eagles game, and the Colts have started and finished games better. Peyton Manning has been calling great games, but once again, Edgerrin James is banged up. To win, the Colts need production from the running back position. It gets the play-action passing game going. The Texans have proved it is hard to move the length of the field against their 3-4 defense. That's why coach Tony Dungy will be emphasizing turnovers for his defensive players this week. Quarterback David Carr has a sore ankle and has been sacked 58 times, 14 away from an NFL record. Turnovers will give the offense the short field to operate and set up more scoring chances. If the Colts win, they would head into next week's game against the Titans with an 8-4 record and a chance to take full control of the AFC South.

1. Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns: The only reason this game is on the map is because the Browns are drawing attention to themselves. All of a sudden, halfback William Green, horrible in his first nine games, is running like a first-round draft choice. His 2.2 yard per carry average has doubled to 4.4. The Browns have won four of the past five and have averaged 26 points a game on offense in the process. A victory over a Panthers team that is on an eight-game losing streak would put them right in the playoff mix. Their defense is getting healthy at the right time of the year. Tim Couch may not be putting up good numbers. He has only 13 touchdown passes. His average per attempt is a puny 6.2. But the offense is getting some exciting plays. Wide receiver Dennis Northcutt is coming on as a receiver and an occasional running threat when put in thebackfield. Coming into the season, the Browns had the look of a surprise team that could make a playoff run this year or next. Butch Davis' team is sneaking up on the league.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.