Clayton 1st and 10

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Wednesday, November 20
Updated: November 21, 12:55 PM ET
 
First ... And 10: Battle for the NFC

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 12.

First ... Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Maybe it's a curse, but the Buccaneers and Packers are battling for the right to be the league's top team heading into Thanksgiving.

The way this season has gone, being the best has been the worst. A month ago, the Dolphins moved to the top of the AFC by beating the Broncos in Denver, and then they lost quarterback Jay Fiedler because of a broken thumb. The Saints moved to the top of the NFC by getting off to a 3-0 against playoff caliber teams, and then they lost to the Lions. Last week, top teams such as Green Bay, New Orleans and the 49ers lost. The Eagles lost quarterback Donovan McNabb with a broken leg.

Warren Sapp
Warren Sapp has 7½ sacks this season for the Bucs.
So, good luck to the winner of Sunday's Packers-Bucs showdown in Tampa Bay. The winner theoretically has a great chance to be the top seed in the NFC, but there is certainly more pressure on the Bucs. They are actually in a race for the new NFC South title. The Packers have their NFC North title all but locked up -- a win gives them the division before Thanksgiving.

It will be interesting to see how the Packers handle their success. Last week's loss to the Vikings was predictable. Brett Favre plays poorly in domed stadiums. The Packers also kept losing players to injury from a defense that is already depleted. Consequently, the Vikings whipped them and controlled the game down the stretch.

Sunday's game and the Dec. 15 game in San Francisco could determine whether or not the Packers can stay at Lambeau Field for the entire NFC playoffs. As everyone knows, the Packers geared their whole season toward winning the division and making sure that they have homefield advantage in the playoffs. It killed them losing to the Rams in a domed stadium in St. Louis in a playoff game last year.

Favre vowed to change that as he stood on the podium following the Packers 45-17 loss to the Rams. In the NFC, home playoff games rule. The next time the PAckers and Bucs meet could be in the playoffs and the Packers want that January game to be in Green Bay.

The fun part of this game is the renewal of the annual battle between Favre and Bucs defensive tackle Warren Sapp. Favre is the league's MVP to date. Sapp leads NFL defensive tackles with 7½ sacks. Some of Sapp's best games came against Favre when they played each other twice a year in the now defunct NFC Central.

The Bucs don't have a lot of speed on their offense, but they appear to be healthy for a change. They've battled offensive line problems and the lack of a consistent running game. The Packers will emphasize halfback Ahman Green, who has 833 yards rushing and 40 catches for 286 yards.

Green's speed matches up well against the speed of the Bucs defense.

Of course, who knows what craziness will fall on the winner. But they can worry about that next week.

And 10. Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers: If this were the theater, friends of Koy Detmer may tell him to "break a leg" but that would be a touchy thought in Philadelphia these days. Donovan McNabb broke his ankle on the third play of last week's victory over the Cardinals, and now an offense that was dominated by McNabb has to change to a system quarterback. McNabb controlled 64 percent of the Eagles offense. The Eagles had 706 offensive plays in 10 games. McNabb ran, threw or was sacked in 452 of those plays. With the exception of Favre, McNabb might have been the most important single player to his team. That forces the Eagles to run the ball more. The good thing for the Eagles is that their running game has improved with Duce Staley turning in strong power runs. Of course, the Eagles defense will have to do its best to stop the run. The 49ers love controlling the game by running the ball. They are averaging 147.2 yards per game rushing the ball (No. 5 in the NFL). The Eagles have done a surprisingly good job stopping the run by allowing only 93.4 yards per game. 49ers left tackle Derrick Deese vows to play despite a high ankle sprain. He has one of the best matchups of the weekend going against Eagles defensive end Hugh Douglas.

Steve Beuerlein
Steve Beuerlein completed his only two passes, both for TDs Sunday.
9. Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: At the beginning of the season, Brian Griese almost lost his starting job to Steve Beuerlein. Now, a knee injury has opened the door for Beuerlein to take control of the job. Griese will likely miss three critical games against the Colts, Chargers and Jets. If Beuerlein wins all three or even two of the three, it may be hard for Griese to get his job back. This isn't like the Kurt Warner-Marc Bulger situation. Coach Mike Shanahan is looking for the quarterback who can get the team a home game or two in the playoffs. It didn't help Griese's cause that he's lost home games to the Dolphins and Oakland. Beuerlein is a smart veteran quarterback who signed a year ago but had a bad elbow. The elbow has healed and he has a lot of weapons at his disposal. The Colts, meanwhile, don't know how effective halfback Edgerrin James, who has been banged up, can be. Despite the injuries, he had a good running performance against the tough Cowboys defense last week. Sure, the Colts need to run the ball, but that will be tough to do against the Broncos defense. Quarterback Peyton Manning will be looking at a defense that is surrendering 67 percent completions. Despite constant double-coverage, Marvin Harrison is having a monster year. He has 89 catches for 1,110 yards and eight touchdowns. It's not out of the question for Harrison to get over 100 catches by the end of this Sunday night game.

8. San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are hoping that they can get one more victory out of backup quarterback Ray Lucas. Jay Fiedler is throwing a Nerf ball and Dave Wannstedt would love to have Fiedler, who has a broken thumb, back in the lineup in another week against the Bills. Lucas performed better last week against the Ravens. He threw the ball deeper and the screen passes seemed to give him a little early confidence. There is no question that Lucas lost his confidence during his three-game losing streak. If the Dolphins come out of this five-game stretch without Fiedler with a 7-4 record, they can stay in the race for the AFC East title. This game is crucial for the Dolphins. The Chargers were revitalized by their overtime victory over the 49ers last week. Sure, they might have to send a playoff share to Jose Cortez of the 49ers if they make it, but the Chargers showed great guts. They won a game minus their two starting offensive tackles -- Vaughn Parker and Damion McIntosh. This is a great battle between two of the best running backs in the AFC. LaDainian Tomlinson leds the NFL with 1,053 yards. Ricky Williams of the Dolphins is fourth in the NFL with 913. Both teams will be using a run-first philosophy. Going across the country won't be easy for the Chargers. It's an early game. The Chargers body clocks will be at 10 a.m., which gives the Dolphins a chance to get off to a quick start.

7. St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins: Marc Bulger continued to build support for a quarterback coup in St. Louis, but Mike Martz won't have any part of it. Kurt Warner is his starter and he is back after Bulger filled in for five games with a 5-0 record. Bulger might not have been able to start anyway because of a swollen right index finger that will keep him fron throwing until Friday. Warner didn't look good when he filled in for Bulger for three plays Monday night. The speed of the game seemed to get ahead of Warner, who is coming back from a broken right pinkie. What Martz is thinking is that he can go back to a more expanded playbook with Warner back. He limited Bulger to a playbook of around 200 passing plays. Each week, Martz loves adding plays. Warner can handle that. The other thought was that this game was on the road in the cold. Bulger might be intimidated in this different environment from the home dome. Martz's third reason for going back to Warner is that playing a road game without Marshall Faulk won't be easy. Faulk isn't expected to play this game because of a high ankle sprain. Lamar Gordon is a powerful runner who filled in nicely against the Bears on Monday night. There is a lot of pressure for Martz to call a strong game because a loss with Warner at quarterback might cause an uproar among Rams fans. With Bulger's help, the Rams made an amazing come back from an 0-5 start. At 5-5, the Rams have playoff life. But a road loss to the Redskins could kill it.

Drew Bledsoe
Drew Bledsoe has 18 TD passes and seven INTs this year.
6. Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: This isn't the same Jets team that the Bills lost to in the opener. Chad Pennington is at quarterback and he has been fantastic. He's competing 71 percent of his passes. He's showing great leadership and toughness. He helped the team survive the ankle problems that nagged Curtis Martin during the first half of the season. Martin is coming off his second 100-yard game of the season. The other improvement on the Jets has been the defense, which had been horrible early in the year. Thanks to the play of middle linebacker Sam Cowart, safety Sam Garnes and defensive tackle Josh Evans, the defense is making more plays and tackling better. After averaging 13 missed tackles a game in their first five games, the Jets may have had at most 15 missed tackles during the past five. But the Jets can't have a let down. The Bills offense is starting to slow down. Teams are doing a better job of stopping Drew Bledsoe in the red zone and holding the Bills to field goals. The criticism is that the Bills are calling too many pass plays in the red zone and not getting many carries. The Bills defense is still giving up 28.6 points a game. Scoring touchdowns is vital for the Bills to get victories.

5. Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: The Falcons are due for a letdown, but they can't afford one against the Panthers, who have lost seven straight games. How things have changed. The Falcons started 0-2. The Panthers started 3-0. The Panthers can't win close games. The Falcons thrive in tight situations because of the leadership and big play ability of quarterback Michael Vick. The only good news for the Panthers is that Julius Peppers is still on the active roster after appealing a four-game suspension for ephedrine. In the last meeting, though, the Falcons killed the Panthers, 30-0, so there might be a little revenge on the mind of the Panthers. It's not that the Panthers are upset with the Falcons, they were more upset with themselves. Injuries at the quarterback position forced them to use rookie Randy Fasani, who clearly wasn't up to the challenge. Rodney Peete is the quarterback Sunday, but the Panthers have little going on offense. They are averaging only 14.5 points a game. Their passing offense is almost invisible at 180.1 yards a game. The Falcons can be lulled into complacency in this road game, but coach Dan Reeves will try to keep everyone's attention. Of course, the Panthers have some off-field issues right now, too. Right tackle Chris Terry missed a court date for a domestic case and has legal troubles. Wide receiver Steve Smith was suspended by the team for beating up teammate Anthony Bright.

4. Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints: Maybe there is life in the legs of Browns first-round draft choice William Green. He rushed for a season-high 96 yards last Sunday against the Bengals. Of course, that was against the Bengals. Can he repeat the effort against the Saints? The future of the Browns offense is really the development of Green, who is averaging only 2.7 yards a carry. Tim Couch needs a good running game to help his passing offense. The Saints, meanwhile, are trying to bounce back from two tough losses to the Falcons this season. They rationalized those losses that maybe they don't match up against the Falcons. They have four home games in their final six and they can't afford to lose any of them. They may have to play without halfback Deuce McAllister, who leads the NFC with 950 rushing yards. McAllister is questionable with an ankle injury. Curtis Keaton may get his first start.

3. Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals: The Raiders are on a roll following victories over the Broncos and Patriots. On defense, they feel as though they have come through their midseason problems. Trace Armstrong is giving the Raiders the pass rush from the defensive end position that they had been missing early in the season. They are doing a better job of stopping the run. But the real story in Oakland is Rich Gannon. He's becoming unstoppable. Gannon should have his way against the Cardinals, who have only 14½ sacks this season. The Cardinals don't have many play-makers on defense although Dave McGinnis does a good job of creating some pressure with his blitzing schemes. Gannon loves throwing against blitzing teams. The Cardinals are trying to compete without many weapons at wide receiver. Frank Sanders is the only experienced wide receiver. The offensive line is down two starters after losing Anthony Clement for the season with his second triceps tear of the year. Center Mike Gruttadauria is out with a knee injury. Raiders coach Bill Callahan reminded the team that they lost a game to the Cardinals last year that helped put them on the road in the playoffs. The Raiders should be motivated.

2. Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots: Bill Belichick need not panic. At least not during this section of the season. Sure, they played horribly in Oakland on Sunday night. But they are still playing in a four-game stretch in which they play three games against teams from the NFC North. They had to come from behind to beat the Bears, but games against the Vikings and Lions should leave them at 7-5 going into their final four games. Tom Brady wasn't sharp Sunday night after an opening series in which he completed his first seven passes. The Vikings still have a dangerous offense that should give the Patriots problems. Michael Bennett is one of the league's hottest big-play backs. He has a staggering 5.6 yards a carry average. His big runs have allowed Randy Moss to get downfield more in the passing offense. Put that up against a Patriots run defense that really isn't that good. Teams are averaging 128 yards a game against the Patriots and coach Mike Tice will try to increase that number early. It's a game the Patriots can't afford to lose.

1. Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Bengals president Mike Brown is starting to talk about next year. He is thinking that Jon Kitna is doing well enough to be his team's starting quarterback next season. All this talk is nice, but the Bengals aren't winning games. All they are doing is locking up the first pick in next year's draft. The Steelers, meanwhile, have to get re-energized behind Kordell Stewart, who took them to the AFC championship game last season. If Tommy Maddox can come back quickly from a spinal injury, this could be Stewart's last start in a Steelers uniform. But there is no time table for Maddox's return. Stewart should have some fun in this game. The Steelers are banged up with a lot of injuries. But playing the Bengals is the ultimate healer of what ails most teams.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.










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