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Thursday, November 7 First ... And 10: Perfect scenario By John Clayton ESPN.com |
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Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 10. First ... Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: For years, Mike Shanahan circles the calendar for his games against the Raiders, particularly those at home. He carries resentment from his quick dismissal by Raiders boss Al Davis early in his second year as the Raiders' coach. He still claims Davis owes him money from his dismissal, and Davis doesn't plan to pay. So Shanahan takes delight in beating him. Things don't get much better for Shanahan than Monday night. The Raiders are on a four-game losing streak. Cornerback Charles Woodson has a hamstring injury. The Raiders' defense is struggling with its identity and can't stop teams in the second half, particularly on third down.
If the Raiders drop to 4-5, Davis might start making changes before the end of the season. The pressure is on. Shanahan loves it. Statistically, the Raiders' defense has dropped to 24th following last Sunday's loss to the 49ers. But they also have major concerns on offense. They are doing great in regards to statistics and horrible on the scoreboard. Despite averaging 420 yards a game, the Raiders have found it difficult to score more than two touchdowns a game the past month. Their red-zone production has been spotty. There is too much grumbling on the offense. Quarterback Rich Gannon wasn't happy calling more running plays. Tim Brown stopped talking to the press after a one-reception game. Charlie Garner complained last week that he wanted to be more involved. It seems as though the last person to complain gets the ball. That's more of a commitment to complaining than a commitment to excellence. The Broncos have had two weeks to prepare for this game because of the bye week. Shanahan has tried to improve special teams and tune up his passing offense. If the Raiders are indeed a championship team, they have to win this game. That's a lot of pressure. And 10. Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers: Steve Mariucci breaks into a deep sweat every time the defense is on the field for a third down. It's hard to figure. The 49ers are well-coached and have great talent and speed on defense. They drafted first-round cornerback Mike Rumph to handle the inside slot receivers, but something isn't clicking. Opponents are converting 53.8 percent of third downs against the 49ers. The Chiefs operate as if every play is third down. Trent Green keeps things interesting. He runs the league's highest scoring offense (32.4 points a game), but so much happens in the fourth quarter. Green's offense averages 13 points a game in the fourth quarter. Most of their games turn into high-scoring affairs in which the last team with the ball wins. The 49ers are averaging 25.4 points a game, but they are based more on conservative concepts. They run the ball very well and Jeff Garcia makes great plays while scrambling. The absence of safety Zack Bronson and having safety Tony Parrish playing hurt might be a problem. The Chiefs tear up safeties because of the great play of tight end Tony Gonzalez and halfback Priest Holmes.
9. Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers: Thanks to Michael Vick and Wade Phillips' 3-4 defense, the Falcons are in the battle for a playoff spot. At the very least, the sixth playoff spot -- the second wild-card position -- is theirs to lose as they enter the second half of the season with a 5-3 record. But the road gets tougher. The Falcons play four of the next five on the road, and this is one of the toughest assignments. The Steelers have won four of five games with Tommy Maddox at quarterback. Instead of worrying about a spread-passing offense, no-huddle attacks and quick passes, the Steelers have to worry about only one thing -- tackling. This is a good mental challenge for a defense that has had to fight through some tough schemes at the beginning of the season. Conversely, this is going to be tougher for Vick. He proved two weeks ago against the Saints that he can win on the road. Of course, Vick was playing then in a dome. Now he faces weather conditions and a tough defense. 8. San Diego Chargers at St. Louis Rams: Most people interpreted last week's Chargers blowout loss to the Jets as just a slip up. Too many players may have read their news clippings during the previous bye week. All season, coach Marty Schottenheimer has praised the work ethic and professionalism of his players. That's why he didn't come down hard on them this week in practice. The offense isn't structured to come from behind by more than 10 points. So the plan is to get a lead. What the Chargers can't do is to get caught up in the excitement of the Rams' recent comeback. The Rams are making an incredible run toward the playoffs after an 0-5 start. They may have Kurt Warner back next week, and Marc Bulger has done a great job during the team's recent three-game winning streak. The Chargers have the defensive talent to neutralize halfback Marshall Faulk to some degree, but they could have trouble if Bulger gets the ball into the hands of Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. The crowd could energize them into big plays and a possible quick start. With halfback LaDainian Tomlinson, the Chargers have to take the Rams crowd out of the game.
6. Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles: The Colts' injury list couldn't be worse. If right tackle Adam Meadows misses another game because of his hip injury, they will have to use their third different right tackle. And with no Edgerrin James and no Ricky Williams, the Colts are using rookie James Mungro as the likely starter. What teams have been doing to quarterback Peyton Manning is calling out defensive adjustments at the same time he is making blitz adjustments to his offensive teammates. The Eagles have one of the most complex blitzing schemes in football. They can cause even more confusion for Manning. Injuries to the Colts' defensive line have forced ends to play tackle and make them one of the lightest lines in football. If the Eagles continue their power running game with Duce Staley, it might be hard for the Colts to counter on defense. 5. New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: Rodney Peete returns as the starting quarterback for the Panthers after missing time with a knee injury. But he faces an inspired Saints defense that is welcoming Dale Carter, who missed eight games because of a drug suspension. This is the perfect game for Carter to make his Saints debut. The Panthers aren't much of a passing team; they throw for only 179 yards a game. Carter will match up against Muhsin Muhammad, the Panthers' best receiver. If Carter does well early in the game, Peete might not test his side too much. It's not known how many plays Carter will be on the field, but coach Jim Haslett wants to get him out there as much as possible. The Panthers' defense might not be tough up the middle, having lost defensive tackle Brentson Buckner for four games because of a violation of the substance-abuse policy. Minus Buckner and middle linebacker Dan Morgan, who is out after a hernia operation, the Panthers will have a hard time stopping the inside runs of Deuce McAllister. The Saints need to win to stay even with the Bucs at the top of the NFC South. 4. Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Redskins' defense has started to come together during the team's recent two-game winning streak. Linebacker LaVar Arrington is making big plays. Defensive tackle Daryl Gardener is making solid stops on the interior of the Redskins defense. No, the offense may not be great because of the inferior play at quarterback, but the Redskins can actually make a run at the playoffs if they can get past this road trip to Jacksonville. Their second-half schedule includes games against teams that are 28-38. They face only one team with a winning record. If the Falcons stumble, the Redskins possibly could challenge for a wild-card spot. The Jaguars can't get anything going on offense. Mark Brunell is struggling, and halfback Fred Taylor's name is starting to sneak onto the injury list. Jaguars coach Tom Coughlin is showing the strain of the team's recent four-game losing streak. This might be a last stand; if the Jaguars lose, their season is just about over. 3. New England Patriots at Chicago Bears: The Patriots are back. It took a trip to Buffalo to bring the swagger back. Tom Brady worked his short passing offense to perfection and the enhanced use of halfback Antowain Smith to create the best balance on offense this season. The Bears have nothing going. Coach Dick Jauron is trying to stay loyal to quarterback Jim Miller even though his sore shoulder and elbow have affected his throws. Defensive players reportedly are starting to get frustrated with the offensive play-calling of coordinator John Shoop. There were reports that some defenders where shouting at Shoop to pick up the offense last week in a loss to the Eagles. It's amazing how things turn around. Last week everybody was ready to bury the Patriots. They were on a four-game losing streak and nothing was going right. Now, with the Dolphins fading with Ray Lucas at quarterback and having an easy second-half schedule, the Patriots are in the best place to make a run to take the AFC East. A road victory over the Bears could tie them for the division lead if the Dolphins lose Sunday night to the Jets. 2. Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: Brett Favre passed his test. Despite wearing a knee brace, Favre was the same old Favre on Monday night against the Dolphins. He tried to outrun faster defensive ends. He refused to throw the ball out of bounds. He took an extra hit. But the knee suffered no more damage. As long as Favre is healthy, the Packers win. He's the first-half MVP without question. Being at home while recovering from his knee injury helps because the crowd keeps Favre sharp. The Lions are terrible on the road, so this will be tough for Joey Harrington to carry his magic outside of Ford Field. The Lions have 27 players on their injury list even though only three are expected not to play. The Packers have concerns on their defense because end Vonnie Holliday needed knee surgery and tackle Cletidus Hunt might be out with a knee injury. This should be an easy one for the Packers. 1. New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings: Jim Fassel's strategy worked. He simplified the offensive playbook and called a good game that enabled the Giants to get to .500. While offensive coordinator Sean Payton didn't like the demotion, Fassel's move turned around the season. Struggling offenses seem to get better when playing the Vikings, who are giving up 376.5 yards and 28.8 points a game. Still, this could be a trap for the Giants. If they don't do well on offense, there could be finger-pointing. The Vikings got a spark on offense by signing left tackle Bryant McKinnie. He is expected to be on the field for about 25 plays. That will help their pass blocking. The Giants' cornerbacks match up well against most good receivers, but Randy Moss still needs a breakout game. He's averaging 10.6 yards per catch, and if the Vikings get charged up early in the game, he could be hard to stop John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. |
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