Clayton 1st and 10

John Clayton

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Wednesday, October 30
Updated: October 31, 12:34 PM ET
 
First ... And 10: Saving face

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 9.

First ... New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: The old axiom in front office circles in the NFL is to never make a trade within a division. The Patriots felt they had no other choice.

Drew Bledsoe
Drew Bledsoe has thrown 16 TDs and only five INTs in eight games this year.
Drew Bledsoe had to be moved. Tom Brady had taken the Patriots to the Super Bowl and came away with a ring. Bledsoe was a $103 million backup. The Patriots shopped him around, but few were willing to make offers. The Bengals might have been willing to give up a first-rounder, but they wanted Bledsoe to take a pay cut, and he didn't want to be a Bengal.

That left the AFC East rival Bills, a team that averaged only 16.6 points a game. Bill Belichick faced a tough decision. On the second day of the draft, the Bills upped their offer to a No. 1. Feeling confident from the Super Bowl victory and knowing that he always had good schemes to defend against Bledsoe, Belichick took the deal.

Now, the pressure is on Belichick to come up with the right scheme to prevent the Bills from moving further ahead of them in the AFC East. The Bills are 5-3 and averaging 30 points a game. The Patriots are 3-4 and in the midst of a four-game losing streak.

In trying to eliminate a distraction, Belichick may have created a big headache and a major embarrassment.

Bledsoe said all the right things Wednesday during his national press conference.

"I don't spend a lot of time thinking about last year,'' Bledsoe said. "I'm happy to be where I am. The situation last year obviously was tough for me personally. It was gratifying to be part of a championship team. But I've moved on and I'm really enjoying the situation this year.''

In many ways, Bledsoe fell into a perfect situation. Instead of having smaller receivers who work the underneath routes, Bledsoe was traded to a team that is loaded with deep threats. He has two of the three most productive receivers in football. Eric Moulds has 57 catches for 785 yards and five touchdowns. Peerless Price has 51 catches for 740 yards and six touchdowns.

Bledsoe, meanwhile, has thrown for 2,500 yards in seven games and has 16 touchdown passes and a 98.3 quarterback rating. He's loved in Buffalo, but still, this game is personal.

No one thought the Bills would be a playoff team this year, but Bledsoe gave fans and the team hope that they would be competitive each week. On Sunday, they can prove to be contender or pretender.

Brady isn't having as much fun this year. While his numbers have been great, Brady isn't having the magic of his 3-0 start. His yards per attempt is 1.4 yards a pass less than Bledsoe (7.9 to 6.5). He's thrown nine interceptions, and opponents in the past three games have had a combined 55-10 halftime lead.

"Ultimately, I just knew that they made the decision that they were going to stay with Tom,'' Bledsoe said. "It was untenable to stay there. Thankfully, I was traded to a good situation.''

If the Bills win, they would have a two-and-a-half game edge over the lead over the Patriots. The Patriots are coming off the toughest part of their schedule, but still have three games against 2-5 teams in the NFC North, falling that far behind to the Bills would make life tough in the final two months of the season.

It would be a reminder to other teams not to make trades in the division, but really, the Patriots didn't have a choice. If that isn't bad enough, a loss to the Bills would make the Patriots first-round choice from Buffalo that much less valuable next year.

And 10. Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers: The Dolphins know that they are down three starters on offense, including quarterback Jay Fiedler. The Packers hope they have Brett Favre, who is coming off the bye week with a knee injury. The Packers are listing him as questionable for the Monday night game. The extra day to prepare may help his recovery. Without Fiedler, the Dolphins have a dilemma. Ray Lucas was horrible in his first start, throwing four interceptions against the Bills. Another bad performance may open the doors for Sage Rosenfels, who is getting coached up as quickly as possible. There is a lot of pressure on Lucas, who is a running quarterback trying to adjust to Norv Turner's offense. He has the benefit of having a powerful running attack led by Ricky Williams. What isn't known is how well Cris Carter will do in his first start since ending his retirement. Carter is expected to be Lucas's possession receiver, trying to go across the middle for the tough yards. The Packers have done a remarkable job filling in for loads of injuries along the offensive and defensive lines and the secondary. Favre has carried the team with his ability to make big plays. But will he be the same coming off the knee injury? Favre has shown an amazing ability to fight through pain but how much his knee will be affected will be the key to the Packers offense.

9. San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are in free fall, but it's puzzling why. Rich Gannon is on pace to have the best eight-game numbers in the history of pro football. Tim Brown, Jerry Rice and Charlie Garner are having great seasons. The offensive line is healthy for the first time this season. Sure, there are injury concerns on defense, but the Raiders have lost that swagger in the past month. Part of the problem is that they have become exclusively a passing team and injuries to halfback Tyrone Wheatley, Randy Jordan and Terry Kirby leave them thin on backs. Garner can take the pounding of a 25-carry game but he can't do that every week. To beat the Raiders, the 49ers have to tighten their third-down pass defense. The 49ers are the worst in football on third downs. Opponents are converting at a 54.8 percentage against the 49ers on third downs. Losing safety Zack Bronson was one problem because he kept his teammates aligned correctly. An injury to quick linebacker Jamie Winborn has opened the middle of the field to some completions. Against the Raiders, the 49ers must get more pressure on Gannon. A four-game losing streak could cause an explosion in the Raiders locker room because the team has too much talent to be 4-4.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Thanks to the change to Tommy Maddox at quarterback, the Steelers look unstoppable. They are getting first-half leads and then using the running game to wear down opposing defenses. Winning this game would put the Steelers in clear control of the AFC North. They would be 4-0 in the division with two wins over the Browns if they can pull out the victory. Maddox will try to take advantage of a Browns secondary that is playing without as many as three starters. But Maddox will even have more pressure in this game because Jerome Bettis and Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala are hurt and Amos Zereoue has to handle the entire load in the backfield. The Browns have been on a roller coaster this season. Were it not for some missed plays at the end of games, they would be the division leader. For the Browns, this is almost like a last stand game. The challenge for the defense is to get pressure on Maddox and force his quick decisions to be wrong decisions. Unlike Maddox, though, Browns quarterback Tim Couch can't fall back on a solid running game. William Green has been benched. Jamel White is more of a pass-receiving threat than rushing threat. Wide receiver Quincy Morgan was benched last week during the game and could lose his starting job soon to Dennis Northcutt. It's been a tough season for the Browns, losing tough games and losing their owner, Al Lerner. A victory by the Browns will make this division more in question the rest of the season. But if the Steelers win, they should roll on to the playoffs.

7. Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: It's hard to believe that the Titans are crawling their back way into the playoff hunt. They started 1-4. They almost lost last week to the Bengals. But, a victory over the Colts would put them back in the playoff race in a division where it may only take eight or nine wins to clinch. Whichever team can fix their weaknesses this Sunday will win. The Titans have been terrible on pass defense for a second consecutive year. They've given up 17 touchdown passes and 234.7 passing yards a game. Injuries to middle linebackers Randall Godfrey and Frank Chamberlin leave the team thin in the middle of the field. Quarterback Peyton Manning has to take advantage of the Titans problems. He's been struggling with his decision making. Offensive line blocking hasn't been as good as last year, and Edgerrin James, who is doubtful for this game, isn't himself coming off of knee surgery because he can't break long runs. The Titans are encouraged because Eddie George is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games and is getting into a running groove again. The problem is getting a lead that the Titans secondary can hold.

Michael Vick
Michael Vick hasn't thrown an interception yet this season.
6. Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons: Do the Ravens have a chance to contain Falcons quarterback Michael Vick on turf without linebacker Ray Lewis and defensive end Michael McCrary? Their hope is that Vick is playing with a sore left shoulder and bruised left thumb, so he might not be on his best. Vick is gaining momentum as one of the league's most exciting players. He's not throwing interceptions and he's making big plays on third downs that few defenses can stop. Defensive linemen and linebackers don't know whether or not to put on a full rush against him because his 4.3 speed enables Vick to run past them if he gets too much penetration. The Ravens are a young defense, but if defensive coordinator Mike Nolan can teach his team patience, it might have a chance. Jeff Blake gave the Ravens offense more of a big play capability filling in for Chris Redman, who's out with a herniated disc. The Ravens had been the lowest rated offense under Redman because he's so young, but Blake adds more of a downfield presence to the offense. The Falcons can start to think playoffs if they can win this game because they are establishing themselves as the potential sixth NFL playoff team in the NFC.

5. St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: It seemed impossible for the Rams to come back from an 0-5 start to make a bid for a wild-card playoff spot, but it is possible this year, but only in the NFC. With Marc Bulger at the helms and Marshall Faulk running the ball, the Rams have won two games. Defensive coordinator Lovie Smith has done a great job of revamping the defense by going to a 4-1-6 for about 90 plays in the past two weeks. The margin of error for the Rams isn't good. They can't afford too many more losses, but this one is important. The Cardinals are vying for that sixth playoff spot and they are in the NFC West. So if the Rams can win Sunday in Phoenix, they can move within one game of the Cardinals and continue to climb for a chance at the playoffs. They have to fill in for the loss of cornerback Aeneas Williams, who is out for the season with a broken leg. The Cardinals, meanwhile, will probably stay in more two-receiver sets to keep the Rams in more conventional sets. The Cardinals have been surprisingly good stopping the run despite having no stars on the defensive line. They are allowing 100.9 yards a game on the ground, which is much better than expected. But stopping Faulk is tough. The Rams are coming off a bye week and are starting to get on a roll.

4. Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This is a dangerous game for the Bucs. The poor play of the offense has put the Bucs defense in a tough spot, but what's new. While the Bucs only give up 10.6 points a game and 238 yards a game, the Bucs are scoring 20.6. But that's misleading because the defense has contributed five touchdowns. The offense has only 11. The offense will be even more challenged because the Bucs might have to start Shaun King because Rob and Brad Johnson are banged up. The passing offense might be without Keenan McCardell and Joe Jurevicius. Both are listed as questionable. Keyshawn Johnson is playing hurt. The Vikings have simplified their offense by going to more balance. It helped Daunte Culpepper, who played more of an error-free game against Chicago last week. What the Bucs can't afford to do is get into a high-scoring game against the Vikings. Sure, the Vikings tend to give up big chunks of yards and lots of points, but the Bucs lack the speed on offense to come up with big plays. Without Anthony Booger McFarland on the defensive line, the Bucs are down two starters in that unit and might be more vulnerable to inside runs. His absence allows opponents to use more blockers on Warren Sapp.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants: At least one of these teams can stop their rapid drop in the standings. The Jaguars started to emerge from salary-cap hell, but then went on a three-game losing streak. Part of the problem is that Mark Brunell hasn't been the same quarterback after suffering a concussion three games ago. He's making more mistakes and he's not getting the ball downfield. Wide receiver Jimmy Smith is complaining about not getting downfield much, but without receiving threats on the other side of the field, Smith can't avoid double coverage. In Brunell's past two starts, he's throwing three interceptions and has completed only 50 percent of his 80 passes. The Giants, meanwhile, don't score points. They have only seven offensive touchdowns in seven games. Tight end Jeremy Shockey is playing with a turf toe and Ike Hilliard is out for the season with a dislocated shoulder. The Jaguars have been solid on defense, ranking 12th and giving up 324 yards a game. They've only given up three rushing touchdowns. Expect a low-scoring game.

2. New York Jets at San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have had a chance to regroup. They've survived injuries to linebacker Junior Seau and defensive end Marcellus Wiley and came out of the first half of the season with a 6-1 record. The Jets continue to stumble and now players are grumbling. Defensive end John Abraham spoke out about the defense. The offensive line is performing horribly. And the Jets have to find a way to fix their run defense, which is allowing 156.7 yards a game, and that's going to be tough going against LaDainian Tomlinson, who had 785 yards rushing in his first seven games. Jets coach Herman Edwards is trying everyway imaginable to motivate this team, but it's getting tougher each week. Last week, they blew a 21-3 first-half lead against the Browns. The Chargers know that they have to have the lead and then pound the ball against the Jets poor run defense to lead. That puts pressure on quarterback Chad Pennington to come out aggressively and make big plays early. If he tries too hard, he could throw interceptions that will be costly.

1. Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks: The Redskins are feeling good about their victory over the Colts last Sunday night, but it may not be as easy if Stephen Davis can't play because of a knee injury. Davis is questionable. He played last week in the first half and enabled Shane Matthews to get a 23-7 first-half lead. His presence is more important against the Seahawks because they can't stop the run. Life for Matthews will be different if Kenny Watson is the starting halfback. The Seahawks, meanwhile, will be going with Matt Hasselbeck, who isn't a fan favorite in Seattle. Hasselbeck looked fresh last week replacing injured Trent Dilfer. Now the job is his. But being at home where he has been booed may be uncomfortable. The Seahawks signed Jeff George to be his backup and fans may start chanting for George if Hasselbeck gets off to a slow start. The Redskins defense is starting to play better, but they haven't gotten a solid effort for an entire game last week. Against the Colts, the Redskins had their best half of football on defense. LaVar Arrington continues to excel and make plays. The Redskins will try to put more pressure on Hasselbeck to break down his confidence.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.









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