Clayton 1st and 10

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Wednesday, October 23
 
First ... And 10: Family matchup

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 8.

First ... Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: The Saints are the NFC's best team for the first seven weeks of the season. The Falcons may be more of a factor next year in the new NFC South as Michael Vick develops, but they could move closer to the top Sunday if the Falcons can pull the upset in the Superdome.

Michael Vick
Michael Vick has thrown four touchdown passes on no interceptions this season.
Thanks to a new six-year, $36 million contract given by the Saints, Aaron Brooks will be battling his cousin, Vick, twice a year in key division games for a long time. The rivalry hasn't yet developed even though both teams moved over from the NFC West because the Falcons are still in the rebuilding mold and Vick was too raw.

But Vick keeps improving. There is no quarterback in football like him. He's Barry Sanders with a big throwing arm. The amazing part about this year's development is that he hasn't thrown an interception. Of course, he's one of the least active throwers in the NFC. He's thrown only 111 passes in his five starts (missing one game because of a right shoulder injury).

Still, Vick's numbers are good. He's completed 61.3 percent of his passes. He's averaging 6.88 yards per attempt, which isn't bad considering the Falcons lack of downfield speed at the receiver position. He's managing the game better than last year. He's right on schedule to be one of the NFL's best.

While Vick does his job the flamboyant way with his spectacular runs, Brooks is more subtle and quietly having a Pro Bowl season. Brooks leads the NFL with 16 touchdown passes. A year ago, Brooks had a good touchdown to interception ratio, but he physically tired at the end of the season and started throwing interception after interception.

This year, he added about 10 to 15 pounds of muscle during the offseason and should be ready for the second half of the year. The Saints are 6-1. What's made Brooks so effective is his ability to produce touchdown plays in the red zone. The Saints have made 24 trips inside an opponent's 20. They have scored 16 touchdowns, settling for seven field goal.

The only glitch in the Saints season was a bad performance in a loss to the Lions. In that game, the Saints wanted to exploit the Lions weak secondary and entered with a game plan too much loaded on pass attempts. That's not their best football.

The Saints are at their best offensively when they mix the run with the pass. Deuce McAllister leads the NFC with 721 yards on 154 carries. Unlike Ricky Williams from a year ago, McAllister makes more big plays from the halfback position. Of course, Williams is doing the same for the Dolphins, but the Saints are just happy to have McAllister, who has been a physical runner along with being explosive.

The Falcons probably won't have that type of physical running because rookie T.J. Duckett is doubtful with a foot injury. Warrick Dunn probably won't complain. The quick, elusive Dunn hasn't been getting the carries he expected because of Duckett.

For the Falcons, this is a desperation game of sorts. They would fall to 3-4 with a loss and drop three-and-a-half games out of the NFC South race. But if they can pull the upset, they might be a long-shot for a wild-card spot.

And 10. Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens were baffled when the Steelers demoted starting quarterback Kordell Stewart. The Ravens run to the Super Bowl ended last year when Stewart beat the Steelers with his feet. Jerome Bettis was out with a groin injury in that game, so Stewart was asked to do more. He had 10 carries for 30 yards, and he made enough plays in the passing offense to beat the Ravens, 27-10, and advance to the AFC championship game. What no one expected at the beginning of the season is that the Ravens would be battling the Steelers for first place in the AFC North this late in the year. For cap reasons, the Ravens broke up their roster and went young. But they have been tough on defense and efficient enough on offense to catch teams off guard and be 3-3. The Steelers are coming off two strong efforts thanks in part to new starting quarterback Tommy Maddox. Unlike Stewart, Maddox manages the passing offense better. He gets the ball to wide receivers Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward with more accuracy. Players believe in him. But will the Ravens? If Ray Lewis returns, Maddox's job will be tougher. Bettis and center Jeff Hartings are expected to sit out this game because of knee injuries suffered Monday night against the Colts. Everyone expects a low-scoring, physical game.

9. Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: This one is for the division lead. I repeat. The Cardinals are battling the 49ers for the NFC West. This is not a misprint. Of course, it will be up to the Cardinals to prove they are up to this task in what should be an interesting test. The Cardinals are coming off one of the worst games played in years -- a 9-6 overtime victory over the Cowboys last week. A lot of what the Cardinals are doing is great coaching. Coach Dave McGinnis has a light defensive line that lacks stars, but the Cardinals are holding up against teams that run the ball. Despite Jake Plummer's presence on offense, the Cardinals aren't high scoring but they can get a running game going behind their big offensive line. The 49ers have had a chance to regroup after their loss to the Saints last week. They run the ball about as well as any team in the NFL, and their mission will be to try to gash the middle of the Cardinals defense with running plays. If they can do that successfully, quarterback Jeff Garcia can open up more passing plays, particularly with the expected return of wide receiver J.J. Stokes, who missed two games because of a knee injury. The Cardinals are serious contenders for the wild-card because a sixth team hasn't emerged in the NFC. But are they contenders for a division title? They can answer that question Sunday.

8. New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: Those who witnessed last Sunday's Eagles-Bucs game are still trying to get over Andy Reid calling five and six consecutive running plays. Ground Reid. Has a nice ring to it. Reid believes short passes are as good as runs, but the Eagles showed a great physical presence by running over the Bucs defense. Will the trend continue? Probably not to the extent of last week when Duce Staley had 14 first-down runs. Still, this will be the first game in which the Giants defensive line will be tested for 60 minutes without defensive tackle Keith Hamilton, whose season ended before the bye week because of a torn Achilles tendon. The Eagles can start to put some distance on the teams in the NFC East if they can win this game. The Eagles lead the Giants by one game, and the Cowboys are too inconsistent to be considered better than an 8-8 challenger. This is Monday Night Football and Donovan McNabb will be expected to put on a show. Despite the Eagles past problems with the Giants, this Eagles team matches up well against them. Philly's offensive line pratically has to tackle to slow down the Giants defensive ends. The return of guard John Welbourn helps the inside running game.

7. Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: As bad as the Chiefs defense is, you wonder how the high-powered Chiefs offense does against them in practice. The only thing that is stopping the Chiefs offense is the end zone. If they have the ball at the end of games, they win. But if the defense comes on the field, they lose. This may be the Chiefs' last stand, and they're hitting the Raiders at a great time. Charles Woodson may return at cornerback, but safety Rod Woodson is hurt and cornerback Phillip Buchanon is out eight weeks with a fractured wrist. That last thing you want to do is play the Chiefs with an undermanned secondary. The other problem is trying to slow down halfback Priest Holmes, the league's leading scorer with 14 touchdowns. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Raiders go to a no-huddle offense to attack the Chiefs defense, but that might not be the best strategy. The Chiefs fans will be loud and proud. Calling plays at the line of scrimmage might be risky. Plus, a no-huddle speeds up the offensive plays and could get the Raiders defense on the field quicker. The team that makes the fewest turnovers should win this one.

6. Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys: Jerry Jones sure complicated things. The Seahawks are surrendering 189.5 yards a game on the ground. Emmitt Smith needs 93 to become the NFL's alltime leading rusher. Figuring that equation, Smith should celebrate that record-breaking honor by halftime. No, Jones changed that equation by deciding to bench Quincy Carter and start rookie Chad Hutchinson. Also, there are more injuries on the Cowboys messed up offensive line that could make matters worse. Center-guard Matt Lehr is out a month with a knee injury. Larry Allen might need more rest for his ankle. And now a quarterback change? It adds drama to what should have been a sure thing. What would be a shame is if Smith doesn't get the record in Texas Stadium. The next Cowboys home game isn't until Nov. 24, so the fans might not be able to honor Smith if Hutchinson fumbles snaps and the line doesn't open holes. For the Seahawks, who are doomed at 1-5, maybe there is hope for a victory.

5. Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: After reviewing their philosophies during their bye week, the Eagles came out running the football with more balanced play-calls. Will the Patriots follow that pattern? During their first six games, the Patriots run-to-pass ratio was 34-to-66. Tom Brady has been throwing too many interceptions during that stretch, and the scoring is coming down. But the problem facing the Patriots is that if they run the ball, they might not have success against the Broncos. The Broncos stuff running offenses. Sure, they had trouble stopping Priest Holmes a week ago, but Antowain Smith doesn't have the outside elusiveness of Holmes. The Patriots can't afford to lose this game because they would be in a four-game losing streak that would have players starting to question their confidence. Quarterback Brian Griese, though, is coming off a great performance in his come-from-behind victory in Kansas City. The Broncos would be sky-high if they could come off two road games with two victories. Expect Patriots coach Bill Belichick to try to test new center Ben Hamilton, who replaced Tom Nalen, who went on injured reserve Wednesday. Patriots defensive tackle Richard Seymour is a bear for any center to handle, but going against him in your first game at a new position is tough.

4. Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins: The Colts should win the AFC South and they should still win 11 or 12 games this season. They have a favorable schedule and they are a good team. But it's clear to see in the losses against good defenses such as the Steelers and Dolphins that this isn't the offense that is as potent as two years ago. The reason is that Edgerrin James is not the threat he once was. That should come back next season. It often does for backs coming off major knee injuries. The second year is always better. But without James being the threat to make as many big plays, defenses can concentrate more on containing wide receiver Marvin Harrison. Harrison is still going to make his catches. He's too elusive and quarterback Peyton Manning is too good at finding him. But as long as Harrison doesn't get those 25-yard plays, the Colts offense can be held in check. This is an interesting Sunday game for the Colts offense to get some momentum. For the Redskins, they don't play at home again until Nov. 24, and Redskins fans might think they will be doomed for the season if they lose. The pressure is on the Redskins, but at least the Colts have offensive threats to cause a defense to worry. The Redskins only threat is halfback Stephen Davis, and he is underutilized.

3. Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers: The Bucs offense has to make some adjustments after a disappointing showing against the Eagles last Sunday. They will probably have Rob Johnson at quarterback for Brad Johnson, who has a fractured left rib. They may also have to come up with a new receiving threat if Keenan McCardell can't play because of a fracture in his left shoulder. In some ways, Rob Johnson might be a good aid for the Bucs offense because he can run around and get outside the pocket. The Panthers have a very active defensive line that can produce sacks. Had Brad Johnson played in this game, he might have thrown for 240 yards, but he might have been sacked five times. Rob Johnson has to make sure he doesn't make turnovers or make dumb mistakes. The Panthers may have Chris Weinke back at quarterback, but if they do, it would be hard to think that he can be successful going against the Bucs defense coming off a nasty concussion. The Bucs should bounce back from the Eagles game. For the Panthers, it may be hard to stop their losing streak, which is currently at four games, particularly if rookie Randy Fasani is the starting quarterback.

2. Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: The Bears are a mess. Jim Miller is trying to return as the starting quarterback despite tendonitis problems in his shoulders. Defensive lineman Bryan Robinson will be inactive because of his two recent arrests for DUI. The offense isn't generating points. The defense can't stop teams and is filled with injuries. And the danger of this game for the sliding Bears is that they almost lost to the Vikings earlier in the season in Champaign. This game is on the road. Of course, the Vikings defense has been dreadful and has made every offense playing at them feel better. Last week, the Vikings defense made Chad Pennington look like Joe Montana. Maybe the Vikings can be the cure for the Bears, but if they enter the Metrodome overconfident, they might be tied with the Vikings for last place in the NFC North.

1. Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills: You can call the Lions one of the most dangerous teams in football if you don't take them seriously. Ask the Saints. Ask the Bears. They didn't take them seriously and each of those teams lost. So the Bills can't afford to be overconfident. Last year, the Bills were the patsies. Now, this simple game could put the Bills at 5-3 heading into next week's game against the Patriots. Drew Bledsoe should be able to pick apart the Lions defense. In many ways, this could be the easiest game of the season for the Bills. But it seems that teams play the Lions differently because they look at this as an easy game. More than anything else, this is a game to test the mental growth of the Bills. They have a defense that could give up 30 points to a young quarterback such as Joey Harrington. They need to run a simple game plan -- maybe more runs -- to slip out of this game against the Lions and get ready for the Patriots.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.








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