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| Wednesday, October 16 First ... And 10: NFC's best By John Clayton ESPN.com |
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Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 7. First ... Tampa Bay Bucs at Philadelphia Eagles: For weeks, the emphasis has been on the AFC, which had the best teams during the first six weeks of the season. Until last Sunday, the argument could have been made that the best team in the NFC would be no better than the sixth best team in the AFC. Last Sunday, the NFC scored some points when the Packers had their gutsiest effort in years. Missing their two best defensive ends and three-fourths of their starting secondary, the Packers whipped the Super Bowl champion Patriots on the road. That was impressive.
The Buccaneers visit to the Vet takes top stage. It can be argued that Jon Gruden is coaching the Bucs because of the Eagles. Over the past two years, the Bucs have lost three games to the Eagles, all critical. In 2000 and 2001, the Eagles whipped the Bucs, 21-3 and 31-9 in first-round NFC Divisional playoff games. Last year, Donovan McNabb's legs outlasted the stamina of the Bucs defense in a 17-13 victory. Even though Eagles coach Andy Reid and Bucs coach Jon Gruden offer some of the most advanced offensive thinking in football, this will be a defensive game. The Bucs rank first in the NFL and have allowed only four offensive touchdowns in six games. The Eagles rank third on defense and Jim Johnson's brilliant schemes have disguised some holes in the team's run defense. The Eagles are allowing only 86.4 yards a game rushing and 3.6 yards per carry. Those numbers are impressive because the Eagles lost their best run-stopping defensive tackle, Hollis Thomas, for the season. Corey Simon, one of the better young defensive tackles, has only played in two games this season. Levon Kirkland has taken over for departed Jeremiah Trotter at middle linebacker. A bye week has given the Eagles a chance to regroup and what will be interesting to see is if Reid continues to put the entire offense on McNabb's shoulder or whether Reid will lessen the load with more regular running plays. McNabb is the team's leading rusher. He's had 33 carries and has been sacked 19 times. Sure, McNabb has added more than 10 pounds of muscle to his body, but can he continue to take 10 hits a game? McNabb accounts for 61 percent of the team's offensive plays. The Bucs have been very physical on quarterbacks. Warren Sapp has been dominating at defensive tackle. Opponents are completing only 50.4 percent of the passes against the Bucs because of the pressure. On defense, the Bucs have speed. This will be a great test of how much Gruden has advanced the Bucs offense. The Bucs have upgraded their offensive talent with the additions of receiver Keenan McCardell and tight ends Ken Dilger and Rickey Dudley. Michael Pittman has made a few big plays from the halfback position, but Gruden is still sorting out whether they run the ball better with Pittman or Mike Alstott getting the carries. Last week, Alstott resolved his frustrations by having a 100-yard day against the Browns. The great part about this game for both teams is that it's reasonably certain that they will meet again this season. The Eagles have an easy schedule and should win the NFC East. The Bucs are in a dogfight with the Saints for the new NFC South, but if they don't win the division, they should get the top wild-card. Like the Eagles, the Bucs have an easy schedule. On Sunday, each team will be feeling as though they are in the playoffs. And 10. San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: It's been a huge couple of weeks for the 49ers. They have climbed the ladder from a salary-cap strapped team of a couple of years ago to the top of the NFC West. They rebuilt the team on defense and have built a great running attack. Quarterback Jeff Garcia runs the offense well with his legs and his head. But the victories over the Rams and Seahawks over the past couple of weeks have taken their toll. The 49ers are a banged up team heading into the Saints game. They are short on safeties because of the foot injury that will sideline Zack Bronson for six-to-eight weeks. The defensive line is thinner with end John Engelberger out one-to-three weeks with a high ankle sprain. Wide receiver J.J. Stokes may miss his second consecutive game with a knee injury. Coming off an emotional Monday night win, the 49ers may have a tough time squeezing out one more great effort. The Saints match up well against the 49ers. The Saints have an active defensive line that is disruptive against the run and the pass. Quarterback Aaron Brooks continues to excite Saints fans with his evolution as a quarterback. This should be a game in which Deuce McAllister does well. The 49ers defense has had some physical games, and the Saints offensive line looks strong. The Saints problems with cornerbacks, however, shouldn't be exposed because the 49ers have yet to get their passing offense in tune. The Saints have injuries in the secondary, but the 49ers, particularly if they don't have Stokes, may not be able to do much this week. 9. Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: After their loss to the Dolphins earlier in the season, the Colts had set their sights on the Steelers game on Monday night as a test of where they are as a team. They followed the Dolphins loss with three winnable games -- Houston, Cincinnati and the Ravens. They won all three games, but had scares at the end against the Bengals and Ravens. The Steelers, despite an easy win over the Bengals last Sunday, don't know exactly where they are yet either. They are 2-0 against teams with losing records. They are 0-3 against good teams. Will the bright lights of Monday Night Football bring back the real Steelers? It better. The Steelers can get back to .500 with a victory and next week's game against Baltimore gives them a chance to take control of the AFC North. The move to quarterback Tommy Maddox has rejuvenated the offense. Most importantly, Maddox's ability to execute the passing offense has opened up running room for halfback Jerome Bettis. Stopping the run isn't the Colts best strength because they are undersized but very active on the defensive line. The Steelers will try to ride the Bus in this game. Coach Tony Dungy will be looking to play a close game in which he hopes Peyton Manning has the ball in the fourth quarter with a chance to win it. 8. Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: Offensive coordinator Norv Turner isn't changing around his offense for Ray Lucas now that he has replaced injured Jay Fiedler, who is out for more than a month with a broken thumb. Lucas is a different quarterback than Fiedler because he is better with his feet than his arm. But Lucas is a leader. The Dolphins are winning because of their balance between the running and passing attacks. This week, they will have to go overboard with the running plays because they may not have starting receivers Chris Chambers and Oronde Gadsden because of injuries. Bills coach Gregg Williams has done a decent enough job of stacking the line to hold down some teams against the run, but this may be a hard matchup. The Bills are still allowing 130.7 yards a game on the ground. All that Turner will ask of Lucas is maybe four or five big pass plays to beat eight- and maybe nine-man defensive fronts. What the Dolphins can't do is allow the game to be a high-scoring shootout. They have to maintain a low-scoring, ball-control game. They can't make mistakes on special teams. Olindo Mare has to make his field goals.
6. Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: Both teams are coming off of emotional, last-second losses. Of the two, the Chiefs are in the tougher position because their 35-34 loss to the Chargers was their third. In the AFC, you can't have too many losses and expect to make the playoffs. So, this is a desperation game for the Chiefs. They have to win, but so do the Broncos. The game comes down to which quarterback makes the fewest mistakes. Trent Green of the Chiefs and Brian Griese of the Broncos have each tossed eight interceptions. Perhaps the best battle in this game is the Broncos run defense against Chiefs halfback Priest Holmes, who has 962 combined yards and 11 touchdowns. As tough as the Broncos are against the run, the best guess is that Green will try to get Holmes 100 yards through the air. Every top running back is finding out that nobody runs on the Broncos. The Chiefs defense can't stop anybody at the moment, and losing rookie defensive tackle Ryan Sims won't make things any easier.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens showed great tenacity last week. Against a potential division winning team in Indianapolis, the Ravens almost won minus linebacker Ray Lewis, defensive end Michael McCrary, center Mike Flynn and wide receiver Brandon Stokley. That was impressive. The Ravens won't know until later in the week whether Lewis will play, but all of a sudden, the Ravens are a win away from being a division contender. In fact, if they win against the Jaguars, the Ravens may be battling the Steelers for the AFC North lead. Go figure. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and even though the competition in the division hasn't been as keen, the Ravens and coach Brian Billick are doing a great job. In many ways, this game is a showdown of two coaches doing a great job under impossible circumstances. Tom Coughlin has made his team more competitive after being freed from salary-cap hell during the offseason. Last week's loss to the Titans, though, showed one of the team's weaknesses. Without quarterback Mark Brunell, the Jaguars can't win. Brunell should be back from his concussion, but Coughlin has to worry because Brunell has had a history of injuries. And with or without Lewis, the Ravens hit hard on defense.
4. Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers: Rich Gannon may have been my choice as the MVP in September by running an offense that was scoring 40 points a game. Brett Favre is winning so far in October. Despite injuries at the receiver position and injury problems on the offensive line, Favre is winning because he's been unstoppable. Redskins defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis is still trying to push all of the right buttons on his defense, but last week, the defense was missing against the Saints. Two of the starting linebackers -- Jessie Armstead and Jeremiah Trotter -- didn't register a single tackle. If the Redskins don't play to their enormous ability, Favre will pick them apart. Of course, the concern for the Packers is that they are playing defense on just guts and aggressiveness. They have so many injuries at the key positions, that it could come back to haunt them against the talented rookie quarterback Patrick Ramsey. Like the Saints did, the Packers have to pressure Ramsey into mistakes, and interception chances can't be dropped.
3. Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals: Somebody has a chance to be the last wild-card team in the NFC, and the Cardinals can get the upper hand if they can win this home game. But can they? It was the Cowboys that the Cardinals used years ago to produce one of their best seasons since moving from St. Louis. Cardinals quarterback Jake Plummer led an inspired upset of the Cowboys in 1998 in the playoffs. The Cowboys offensive line problems are developing into an interesting story. The blockers don't seem to be comfortable with the new zone blocking scheme. Last week, they traded Kelvin Garmon to San Diego and guard-tackle Solomon Page, a free agent after the season, may follow him. The blockers loved the scheme of Hudson Houck, who is doing magic in San Diego. Larry Allen will play right tackle if his ankle is healthy, but he may play at guard if the ankle isn't right. What this team needs to do is get to the bye week in three weeks and sort out its personality on offense. Still, Quincy Carter is doing a decent job under some difficult circumstances.
2. Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: The loser of this game can start to make plans for the offseason. In many ways, each team has only a long shot at making the playoffs. Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren made some critical comments about the team as a whole following a 28-21 loss to the 49ers Monday night. He's threatening changes in the starting lineup. It's desperation time. The Rams went through that a week ago and came back with an impressive victory over the Raiders. Being at home, the Rams have a comfort level, and the expectations aren't as great because everyone has written them off as a playoff team. Marc Bulger isn't bad as the fill-in for injured Kurt Warner, and the Seahawks better recognize that or they will be 1-5. The Rams offense is geared to get the ball to play-makers such as Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. Bulger did that calmly last week. Because most opponents have run successfully against the Seahawks, Faulk should have a better day on the ground than in the air.
1. Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets: Each team has had a recent bye week to reflect on their fates, and the Vikings have the confidence of coming out of their bye and beating the Lions. Coach Mike Tice is thinking about benching struggling wide receiver Derrick Alexander. He continues to tinker with the defense. For Herman Edwards, he just needs to see where his players are at this stage. The Jets, like the Rams, have been one of the league's biggest disappointments. With both teams being among the league's worst on defense, this should be a high-scoring game. Expect the Vikings to get the ball more downfield to Randy Moss. The Vikings have spent so much time getting the football to Moss that they aren't letting him get into his deep routes. What the Vikings can't do is make turnovers. Daunte Culpepper can't fumble or throw interceptions or the Jets will score a lot of points. John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. |
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