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Wednesday, October 9
 
AFC first-quarter report card

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

Following are my grades for the AFC after five weeks of action in the 2002 season:

Clayton's All-AFC Team
OFFENSE
Pos. Player Team
WR Eric Moulds Bills
LT Jonathan Ogden Ravens
LG Ruben Brown Bills
C Kevin Mawae Jets
RG Dan Neil Broncos
RT Lincoln Kennedy Raiders
TE Tony Gonzalez Chiefs
WR Marvin Harrison Colts
QB Rich Gannon Raiders
RB Priest Holmes Chiefs
FB Larry Centers Bills
DEFENSE
Pos. Player Team
DE Jason Taylor Dolphins
DT Chester McGlockton Broncos
DT Jamal Williams Chargers
DE Trevor Pryce Broncos
OLB Joey Porter Steelers
MLB Ray Lewis Ravens
OLB Junior Seau Chargers
CB Patrick Surtain Dolphins
SS Lawyer Milloy Patriots
FS Rod Woodson Raiders
CB Ty Law Patriots
SPECIAL TEAMS
Pos. Player Team
K Morten Andersen Chiefs
P Chris Hanson Jaguars
KR Chad Morton Jets

Baltimore Ravens (2-2)
The salary cap forced Brian Billick to blow up the roster and fill huge gaps with low-salary players. So to be 2-2 and in first place in the AFC North is a tribute to Billick's coaching and Ray Lewis' leadership. The new Ravens are 28th on offense and 21st on defense. They would crash to the bottom of the charts if Lewis' partially separated shoulder keeps him out and the starting lineup. But the Ravens weren't expected to be a contender in any form this year. Their $47 million payroll is the second lowest in the league. Their defense hits hard. Jamal Lewis is starting to run like his old, punishing self. Chris Redman, with a 54 completion percentage and a 77.4 quarterback rating, hasn't been much of a threat downfield but he has managed games adequately.
Grade: B.

Buffalo Bills (2-3)
The Bills are this year's Indianapolis Colts: All offense, no defense. But at least they are more competitive. Still, it's a lot to ask Drew Bledsoe to keep putting up 30 points a game. As Peyton Manning found out last year, that kind of pressure forces a quarterback to throw more downfield and end up with interceptions, many that are returned for touchdowns. Bledsoe has 12 touchdowns passes, five interceptions and 1,762 yards in five games. Eric Moulds and Peerless Price have been superstars. The Bills are exciting. But the defense must get better or there will be a drain. The Bills haven't forced a turnover in five games. Not one. The defensive line is nonexistent and it's hard to survive in this league giving up 128 rushing yards a game and 4.7 yards a carry. Bledsoe gives them a chance, but unless the defense improves, it might only be a six- or seven-win season.
Grade: B-minus.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-5)
Told you so. While the Bengals might have talent, organizationally this isn't working. They need an infusion of established football thinkers. Let's see, they've started three different quarterbacks and haven't had good production by any. Now, all three aren't happy. They keep juggling receivers on the other side of Peter Warrick and can't find a rhythm. They came off one of the least competitive Septembers in the history of the league. Dick LeBeau keeps his head coaching job because it would be silly to go into the staff and promote someone when the problem is at the top. The Bengals lack a deep scouting department and can't entice quality free agents. Though their drafts aren't bad, those choices become professionally stale in a losing situation since 1990.
Grade: F.

Cleveland Browns (2-3)
The Browns just can't get over the top. They had beaten the Chiefs, but Dwayne Rudd takes off his helmet and the Browns lose. They were a Phil Dawson field goal away from beating the Steelers, but the kick was wide. Now, Tim Couch is mad at the fans for cheering after he suffered a concussion and backup Kelly Holcomb, an early-season success story, is out a couple of weeks with a hairline fracture of a tibia. Perhaps the biggest disappointment is the struggles of first-round pick William Green, who has 97 yards in 44 carries. The defense also hasn't lit it up either. Couch may not be 100 percent after missing the first two games because of a scar-tissue tear in his elbow. For the Browns to start making a move, Couch needs to get hot and get the fans behind him.
Grade: C.

Denver Broncos (4-1)
Going into the season, the thought was the team would go as far as Brian Griese could take it. That's not the case. Denver is a team that wins because of great defense and few mistakes on offense. Mike Shanahan retooled his team around a powerful defensive line. Lional Dalton, Chester McGlockton and Trevor Pryce are immovable and hard to run against. The linebackers might be the quickest in the conference and have great range. And Griese has responded to threats of losing his job and challenges by assistants. Their three-headed backfield is starting to move toward the direction of rookie Clinton Portis, who has two 100-yard games. Had it not been for their mental meltdown in Baltimore, the Broncos would be undefeated and feeling invincible. Still, Griese has to occasionally look over his shoulder because the head coach is demanding winning performances each week. That's a lot of pressure. Ed McCaffrey has looked great coming off his broken leg, and Shannon Sharpe has been a perfect leader to bring back to the huddle.
Grade: B-plus.

Houston Texans (1-3)
Dom Capers did it again. As he did in Carolina, he and general manager Charlie Casserley put together a competitive team. His 3-4 defense is tough to move against. It's filled with veterans who are starting to get the hang of his complicated scheme. On offense, everyone expected rookie quarterback David Carr to have his difficulties. Minus three starters on the offensive line, including tackles Tony Boselli and Ryan Young, Carr has been sacked 26 times. Carr has completed 44.9 percent of his passes and has six interceptions, but he still can come up with the big play to make it exciting. Like most expansion teams, wins are hard to find the first season. Add 14 draft choices and a second crack at the free agent market, and watch the Texans soar next season.
Grade: B.

Indianapolis Colts (3-1)
Tony Dungy has done exactly what was expected. He was supposed to turn a defense that ranked 31st into a middle-of-the-pack unit, and he has done just that. They rank 12th in defensive stats, but more importantly, Dungy's defense is giving up only 15 points a game, 16 less than last season. All ownership asks is for the Colts to give up around 23 a game. The offense is clicking completely, but Peyton Manning should hit a hot string soon. Overall, the Colts are 3-1 and have a relatively easy schedule. They have a great chance at getting a playoff bye if things keep going well. The Colts defense is light on the defensive line, and that shows by the numbers allowed on the ground. They are surrendering 145 yards a game.
Grade: A.

THINGS TO WATCH IN THE AFC
1. The Steelers should make a move toward the top of the AFC North during the next month even though three of their games are on the road. If they can win three of those games and even their record at 4-4, they should have a great second half of the season. Their three road games are against their division opponents -- Cincinnati, Cleveland and Baltimore. They need to win two of those games, if not all three. Another crucial game will be the Oct. 21 Monday night game against the Colts. The Colts have the best chance to win the AFC South.

2.Bengals coach Dick LeBeau should be able to survive the ax in the next month because team president Mike Brown hates to fire coaches. But the team has to play better. The next three weeks are critical. The Bengals have home games against the Steelers and Titans. Bad performances will turn off the fans even more than they are now and put more pressure on Brown to make a change. The Bengals, except for the second half of last week's game against the Colts, have been uncompetitive.

3. The Texans offensive line should start to get back some starters. Guard Ryan Schau is ready to return from a knee injury. Before the end of the next month, the Texans might start to get closer to the debuts of tackles Ryan Young and Tony Boselli. The key for the Texans is making sure quarterback David Carr survives. An injury to Carr would set back the development of the offense, and keeping Carr upright is the key. He has been sacked 26 times in four games.

4. This should be another good month for Dolphins halfback Ricky Williams. If he can do well against the Broncos on Sunday, his next three games are against the Bills, Packers and Jets -- three of the bottom eight run-stopping teams in football.

5. Drew Bledsoe shouldn't be able to continue at his pace of throwing for 352 yards a game. Three of his next four games are against the Texans, Dolphins and Patriots. The next two are on the road against the Texans and Dolphins.
— John Clayton

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)
The easy schedule for AFC South teams should allow the second-place team in the division to have a great shot at the top wild-card spot in the AFC playoffs. Few thought Jacksonville would be in that position in the first quarter rather than the Titans. The Jaguars are a factor as long as the offensive triangle of quarterback Mark Brunell, wide receiver Jimmy Smith and halfback Fred Taylor stay healthy. Tom Coughlin has done a great job with the young players filling in for the salary-cap casualties of the offseason. It turns out that move to let Boselli and defensive tackles Gary Walker and Seth Payne go gave them the $17 million of relief needed for them to survive. The Jaguars won't go away, and don't expect them to fold unless they lose one of their Big Three on offense.
Grade: A.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-2)
Trent Green is winning a few fans. Sure, he might throw an interception or two, but he has shown he can come up with a touchdown drive when needed in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs have scored an incredible 85 points in the fourth quarter. Green has a 100.4 quarterback rating and 12 touchdown passes. The role of halfback Priest Holmes continues to grow. Instead of screens and draws, Holmes is getting more quick carries into the line and power runs. They have put him into the receiving mix more and he's coming up huge. The Chiefs are getting 152.7 yards a game from Holmes in combined yardage. Willie Roaf has been a great addition at left tackle, and John Tait, despite a struggling preseason, has done a good job learning right tackle. The problem is on defense. The Chiefs are giving up 423 yards a game, 317 through the air. After his holdout, defensive tackle Ryan Sims has taken over as a starter, and that should help against the run. But the Chiefs need to tighten up the defense in the second quarter.
Grade: B.

Miami Dolphins (4-1)
The Ricky Williams trade and the hiring of Norv Turner as offensive coordinator have put the Dolphins at the top of the league. Williams has four 100-yard games, 565 rushing yards and a 4.8-yard rushing average. With Williams' success, Turner has been able to keep defenses off balance with his play-action calls worked perfectly by quarterback Jay Fiedler. Wide receiver Chris Chambers is coming on as expected with back-to-back six-catch games. Randy McMichael is a Rookie of the Year candidate at tight end. The value of cornerback Patrick Surtain was proven during his two-game absence because of a knee injury. Surtain is back and the pass defense has improved. Over the past two weeks, the Dolphins tightened a run defense that had been leaky. After the first month, the Dolphins have established themselves as an AFC title contender
Grade: A.

New England Patriots (3-2)
The Patriots learned the difficulty of being a Super Bowl champ. They are an event on everyone's schedule and they are starting to pay a price. The defense has been victimized by three consecutive 100-yard individual rushing efforts, but the Patriots' early schedule was loaded with some of the best running backs in the league. The interesting change in the team is how the offense is all about quarterback Tom Brady. The Patriots are throwing on 65 percent of their snaps. Defenses are forcing a few more mistakes than expected. Brady has been sacked nine times and has thrown six interceptions. Still, Brady has been a star during the first quarter of the season.
Grade: B.

New York Jets (1-4)
This season has been a disaster. Vinny Testaverde lost his starting job. The six new starters on defense haven't worked out, and the team is allowing 419 yards a game. The worst part has been the run defense. The Jets are surrendering 190 yards a game. The bye week comes at a good time. Coach Herman Edwards is threatening changes on defense. Perhaps the biggest disappointment is the offensive line, but that had to be expected. The loss of offensive line coach Bill Muir along with the departures of Kerry Jenkins and Ryan Young impacted this line more than anyone wants to admit. After the bye week, the Jets might come out with a younger lineup, something that wasn't the plan going into the season. This was supposed to be a team building upon last year's wild-card success. Now, it looks like a team in the rebuilding stage.
Grade: F.

Oakland Raiders (4-0)
First-year coach Bill Callahan is having quite a honeymoon. Everything is working right. His changes on offense have been sensational. He's gone no-huddle. He has put in some interesting shovel passes that have been tough to stop. He has spread the field with receivers and added unpredictability to the offense. The Raiders are averaging 40.5 points a game. On defense, the Raiders keep jumping between 3-4 and 4-3 alignments, keeping teams off balance. The only question is how this older, veteran lineup can keep up this incredible pace for the next 12 weeks of the regular season and still have enough for the playoffs. Clearly, the Raiders were the best team of the first quarter. They are destroying teams. Injuries started to creep in last week against the Bills, but the roster has depth to handle them.
Grade: A.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)
Don't write off the Steelers as a playoff team despite a 1-3 start and a defense that is allowing 26 points a game. The Steelers' schedule is easy. Between now and Dec. 1, the only tough game they have is the Oct. 21 Monday nighter against the Colts. So the team should start getting some victories, but they better start playing like a playoff team. The switch to Tommy Maddox at quarterback has kick-started the offense. Kordell Stewart threw 15 interceptions in his last seven starts, and the Steelers lost four of those games. Maddox doesn't have Stewart's skills, but he got things moving offensively last week. Most importantly, Jerome Bettis showed he can still run. The Steelers win games on Bettis' running and a solid defense. This is the time of year that both of those elements need to get moving. The new AFC North is there for the taking, but the Steelers have to claim the prize.
Grade: C-minus.

San Diego Chargers (4-1)
Marty Schottenheimer has the surprise team in the AFC. The Chargers are 4-1 because he has established discipline and a winning attitude. LaDainian Tomlinson was the team's most valuable player during the first five games, rushing for 554 yards and catching 20 passes. His consistency has allowed quarterback Drew Brees to be efficient. Brees is completing 60 percent of his passes. The Chargers learned last week that they can't play come-from-behind football yet because the offense revolves around Tomlinson runs and a few play-action passes to Curtis Conway. The Chargers blew seven games last season in the final 90 seconds, but that won't happen under Schottenheimer. He has the defense to keep the team in contention into the fourth quarter.
Grade: A-minus.

Tennessee Titans (1-4)
Don't buy into Bud Adams' criticism that coach Jeff Fisher has been outcoached, but the Titans have clearly underachieved. This has to go well beyond the loss of defensive end Jevon Kearse in the team's first defensive series. The pass defense remains horrible. After ranking 31st in pass defense last year, the Titans are 28th and giving up 276 yards a game. Not good. Eddie George spent the offseason trying to regain his stride, but he hasn't been able to do that on the field. George has 218 yards on 81 carries, a puny 2.7-yard average. The team needs to let Steve McNair be Air McNair again. They need to open up the offense like last year. What's to lose? The team is 1-4 and the season is rapidly slipping away.
Grade: D.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.






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