![]() | |
![]() |
![]()
|
| Wednesday, November 7 Updated: November 8, 4:45 PM ET First ... And 10: Colts' wakeup call By John Clayton ESPN.com |
|||||||||||||
|
Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 9. First ... Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: It's November, and no one has figured out if the Colts will live up to their billing as a Super Bowl contender. The ride has been rough so far. The Patriots beat the Colts twice. The Raiders whipped them for a second consecutive year in the RCA Dome. The defense, which looked to be improved by the late additions of cornerback Thomas Smith and defensive tackle Mike Wells, didn't jump to the top 15. It's currently 24th and has only forced nine turnovers.
Sunday's showdown against the Dolphins is wakeup time. Peyton Manning used supposedly easy road games against the Chiefs and Bills to work out the kinks in his offense. The no-huddle has slowed down a little because of injuries. Edgerrin James missed last week's game with a knee injury. Manning has gone weeks without having the duo of Terrence Wilkins and Jerome Pathon as a tandem on the other side of Marvin Harrison. Manning versus the Dolphins has always been one of the NFL season's annual treats. The Dolphins' cornerback combo of Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison always have trouble staying with Colts receivers as Manning plays his head games trying to get them out of position. A Dolphins victory puts them in great position to win the division and leave the Colts with only wild-card options. Manning has completed 65.6 percent of his passes and leads the AFC with an average gain of 8.04 per pass. But four of his nine interceptions have been returned for touchdowns. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have to turn around their running offense. Lamar Smith has watched his rushing average drop to 2.9 yards per carry. The Colts rank only 22nd against the run, so if the Colts don't buy the play-action fakes because there is no running attack, then quarterback Jay Fiedler will have trouble. Both teams meet again on Dec. 10 in Miami, but it's up to the Colts to draw first blood. If not, they may need a medic for a season that isn't going as planned. And 10. Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: Can the magic continue? America's Cinderella team bounced back from 19-point and 14-point deficits to win overtime games against the youthful 49ers and Browns. Against the Packers, there are no secrets. They know each other too well. In fact, the guy (Mark Hatley) who brought in the talent that jumped out to the 6-1 start was chased out of Chicago and now runs the Packers' personnel office. So anyone saying that this 6-1 start was expected is crazy. Still, it's been fun. Hatley knew this when he left that the additions of defensive tackles Ted Washington and Keith Traylor would make the defense good enough to keep the Bears in every game. The surprise has been the pass rush, which made the Bears better than average. They have 18 sacks, which isn't bad. The Packers have moved to the top of the NFC Central because they have developed more ways to beat teams than just Brett Favre's arm. In fact, since the victory over the Ravens, Favre has been average in his last two games. He's averaged only 175 passing yards a game and has thrown three interceptions. But the Packers are so much better because Ahman Green's feet are quick enough to win games. The defense is better and they have improved their sack total to 30 in seven games. Allen Rossum can create instant offense with his returns. If the Bears don't win this game, things get tough. They have road games to Minnesota and Tampa Bay, so they could easily fall to 6-4 if they get too caught up in their press clippings. 9. Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans: This Monday night game was originally billed as one of the best of the year. It still can be a game, but injuries have taken the Titans from Super Bowl contender to wild-card longshot. The Ravens' biggest mistake would be taking the Titans lightly. Sure, they have trouble. Eddie George is banged up. The secondary is a mess. Middle linebacker Randall Godfrey is out with a knee injury. But the Titans have long memories and know that the Ravens have beaten them three consecutive times. In their first meeting on Oct. 7, the Ravens felt that these weren't the same Titans. Tennessee's defense wasn't as aggressive since coordinator Gregg Williams shuffled off to Buffalo to take over the Bills. George looked passive knowing that Ravens middle linebacker Ray Lewis will get good hits on him. In many ways, this is the Titans' last stand. They've been blown away on the road by the Ravens, 26-7, and the Steelers, 34-7. Offensively, the Ravens have had only two games in which they have scored more than 20 points. Titans fans will be wild trying to keep their team's playoff hopes alive. 8. New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers: So Terrell Owens may not hug Steve Mariucci after a touchdown pass. As long as Mariucci keeps having Jeff Garcia throw those passes to Owens, the 49ers will survive. This is a critical game for each team. The Saints are still reeling from their horrible showing Sunday night against the Jets. Quarterback Aaron Brooks had his worst start. The Saints' biggest mission, though, is containing Owens and the 49ers' offense. They know that a loss puts them two games behind the 49ers for second place in the NFC West, so they have to play with the desperation they did two weeks ago in St. Louis. What they've got to do is stop falling behind. The Saints have had 10-point or more deficits in the first half over the past three games. That can't continue. Garcia's knee problems may limit his movement outside the pocket, and if that's the case, the Saints have a huge edge. Still, it's hard for defensive linemen to get their footing early in games at 3Com Park. 7. Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks: For the past two seasons, Mike Holmgren has had a difficult time showing his team can stay within 17 points of the Raiders. The Seahawks lost the first meeting, 38-14, so Holmgren might be risking a lot by starting struggling Matt Hasselbeck instead of Trent Dilfer. After all, even though Hasselbeck was prematurely benched at the half of the Redskins loss Sunday, the Seahawks still might have a better chance to win with Dilfer. Holmgren's thinking is that the team has to grow around the development of Hasselbeck. Here's the problem: If he loses, the Seahawks' first-year starter will be 1-5 and their season is all but over. What's in their favor is that the Raiders were banged up in their emotional Monday night victory over the Broncos. They have as many as 18 players hurt. Virtually every offensive lineman and most of the secondary are hurting. The crowd will be interesting, too. Interest in Seahawks football has dropped to a point in which this game isn't a sellout in Husky Stadium, and many of the stray tickets may be gobbled up by Raiders fans. If the Raiders have early success, they may feel as though they have home-field advantage. 6. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: One of these two teams will be emotionally down because of their tough losses last week. The Steelers lost at home against the Ravens because kicker Kris Brown went 1-for-5 on field-goal attempts. The Browns lost on the Immaculate Deflection at Soldier Field in overtime. The Browns have improved enough as a team that they can start to make this series a rivalry again. Bears players say the Browns are dirty. Ask Jaguars quarterback Mark Brunell and he will certainly agree. The heart of the Browns is the defensive line, and the Steelers have to beware because Courtney Brown is back after a three-sack season debut. The extra attention Brown commands may open up the middle of the field for defensive tackle Gerard Warren. The Steelers, however, will try to get Jerome Bettis back to his 100-yard rushing level. Meanwhile, have you noticed that over the past month Kordell Stewart has been playing well? Tim Couch's improvement has been more noticeable. Should be a classic, low-scoring game. 5. San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: Terrell Davis' return may be the spark this team needs. Against the Raiders Monday night, Davis looked rusty but strong while rushing for 70 yards on 17 carries. Missing, though, was the Broncos' solid inside running attack. They looked like a different team by asking Davis to run his plays to the outside. They looked too basic. Having a week with Davis as the main back may allow the Broncos to get back to being a complete running team. The Chargers can establish themselves as the only threat to the Raiders if they can win in Denver and sweep the series. That could be a problem, though. Halfback LaDainian Tomlinson is slowing down because of injuries. He's had only 219 yards over the past four games on 88 carries. That's less than three yards a carry. On top of that, those 25-carry games are falling to 16 and 13 attempts a game. To beat the Broncos, the Chargers will need more out of their Rookie of the Year candidate. 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: For the fourth consecutive year, the Bucs are at 3-4 and have the league just where they want them. Here's their problem. They have a great chance to get to nine wins if they beat the Lions and win their five second-half home games, but they have serious worries about some of their strengths. A defense that thrives on their four-man rush isn't getting pressure on the quarterback. Quarterback Brad Johnson is looking short and finding receivers covered so he's taking sacks. The offensive line looks horrible. Plus, it's not out of the question that the sense of urgency may not be there against a winless team such as the Lions. At 3-5, you can all but write off the Bucs. So expect them to win, but they have to start correcting their persistent problems. The Lions have become competitive in the past month, but they don't seem to have the play-makers to win games. Looking at tapes of the Bucs won't strike fear in them, so maybe the Lions could come into the game with a little more confidence than normal. It's time for the Bucs to start scaring some teams. 3. Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars: Sure the salary cap has taken the depth away from the Jaguars, but they haven't become the Bengals, have they? A home loss to the Bengals would make them the AFC Central patsy. Quarterback Mark Brunell skipped Wednesday's practice with a quad injury and may not be as mobile come Sunday. Fred Taylor is practicing but his groin injury is still probably a week away from him returning to the starting lineup. After a 2-0 start, the Jaguars have lost five in a row. Tom Coughlin makes them competitive in their losses, but the mistakes are killers. The Bengals have had a week to rest their cornerback injuries, but even at complete health, they will have trouble covering Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell. 2. Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: The Vikings have had too long to lament their 41-14 loss to the Buccaneers. The bye week came at a tough time, but maybe it has given the Vikings time to reflect on why they look like a different team on the road. They've lost three on the road, and the margin of defeat gets worse with each game -- 7 points, 13 points and 27 points. Winning at the Vet, though, will be tough. The Eagles don't have an offense that will score many points, but the Vikings may have trouble in the red zone containing Donovan McNabb. The beauty of this game, though, will be watching two of the league's best young quarterbacks -- McNabb and Daunte Culpepper -- duel. Just for one week, it would be fun to see what McNabb could do throwing to Cris Carter and Randy Moss. Consistent receiving has been a problem for the Eagles. The time off should have given Moss a chance to heal from leg injuries that have taken away his deep routes. 1. Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets: Aren't the Jets weird? They are 5-3 even though they have the league's worst run defense and have the second-worst passing offense in the league. The Jets are lucky. They have created 24 turnovers compared to only committing nine on offense for an incredible plus-15. That means they are given two extra possessions a game. No wonder their stats are down. They are playing on a 50-yard field. The Chiefs are better than their 2-6 record, and quarterback Trent Green should be able to get some passing offense going against the Jets. If the Jets win and the Dolphins lose to the Colts, the Jets would take over first place in the AFC East heading into next week's showdown in Miami. John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. |
| ||||||||||||