Clayton 1st and 10

John Clayton

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Wednesday, October 31
Updated: November 3, 9:29 AM ET
 
First ... And 10: Can Raiders finally buck Broncos?

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 8.

First ... Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: If the Raiders lose their Monday night game against the Broncos, Raiders boss Al Davis should storm into the Broncos' locker room, extend an olive branch to Mike Shanahan and write him a check for past pay. Since Shanahan became the Broncos' head coach, he's won 11 of 12 games against his former boss, including seven consecutive.

The Raiders have been the one constant in this season of upsets and surprises. Jon Gruden runs a disciplined team. Rich Gannon continues to run an efficient offense that minimizes mistakes and maximizes the skills of old pros. Charlie Garner is becoming more involved running and receiving as the Raiders' developing featured back.

And, despite several injuries and one suspension on the defensive line, the Raiders' defense has been solid enough to rank seventh in the league and first in third-down situations. They are playing like champions. So losing to the Broncos would be a confirmation that Shanahan has the Raiders' number. If the Raiders can't beat the Broncos as well as they are playing now, they may never beat them.

Jason Elam
Jason Elam kicked a 41-yard field goal to beat the Raiders on Monday night last November.
Gruden does have some serious concerns, mostly on the offensive line. He's lost center Barrett Robbins for the season and guard Mo Collins indefinitely. Right tackle Lincoln Kennedy is fighting a losing battle on a bad shoulder injury and may have to sit. Left tackle Barry Sims' surgically repaired foot is bothering him again, leaving retiring Steve Wisniewski as the team's only healthy line starter. Good thing Wiz didn't retire this summer.

How embarrassing would it be if the Broncos beat the Raiders by having former Raider Chester McGlockton disrupting Oakland's interior line blocking. The Raiders thought the moody McGlockton pulled down their morale with spotty play. McGlockton has been a solid citizen in Denver, and Shanahan would love nothing better than beat the Raiders with McGlockton.

The rivalry is personal. Last year, Shanahan rubbed one in on Gruden's coaching staff by copying the Raiders' fake reverse play (in which the quarterback hands off to a halfback) to score an early touchdown in the Broncos' victory at the old Mile High.

Last Sunday against the Patriots, the Broncos' offense started showing signs of coming out of its funk. Brian Griese didn't seem to be as bothered by his shoulder problems. Offensive line blocking improved. And Rod Smith kept catching passes. But where is the running game? Minus offensive line coach Alex Gibbs, who works only during the week, the Broncos have become an average running team, ranking 12th. Eddie Kennison continues to be invisible as Griese's second option in the starting receiving corps.

No matter what problems have existed in the past, Shanahan seems to get everything fixed during Raiders weeks. Can he do it again? If he does it this time, those silver and black flags might have to turn to white for surrender.

And 10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers: The Packers needed the bye week to mentally recover from their whipping at the hands of Vikings. Brett Favre's elbow is fine. So is the team's spirits. The players know that the NFC Central is suddenly in their control if they can win this Sunday's game and beat the Bears in Chicago next week. A year ago, they viewed front running teams such as the Bucs and Vikings from a distance. Favre almost pulled out a victory in the final seconds of the 14-10 loss in Tampa Oct. 7. But this is November, and the Bucs usually get hot after Halloween. Their road troubles in cold-weather sites are well-documented and, guess what, it's November. The Lambeau refrigerator is starting to chill. Tony Dungy will go back to Warrick Dunn as his starting halfback, but he won't be opposed to using Mike Alstott more than he would have a week ago. Last Sunday's 128-yard effort against the Vikings showed the offense can get a charge from tough inside running. There will be an emotional side to this game. Unless they meet again in the playoffs, Favre and defensive tackle Warren Sapp are ending one of the most fun individual rivalries in the sport. The Bucs are moving to the NFC South next season. Favre wants to give Sapp a nice parting gift.

9. Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: Jerome Bettis didn't get his usual 100 yards rushing against the Titans and he doesn't figure to get it against the Ravens, who don't allow such accomplishments. For the Steelers to continue their lead in the AFC Central, they will have to beat the Ravens in two areas. First, Kordell Stewart needs a repeat of his 232-yard performance against the Titans. In practices recently, Stewart has been uncharacteristically accurate. Perhaps the biggest improvement has been Plaxico Burress's involvement. His 151-yard effort against the Titans was huge. Whether he can repeat it against Chris McAlister and Duane Starks, the Ravens starting cornerback, is another question. The other way the Steelers can win is getting turnovers from the Ravens. That is possible. Elvis Grbac is iffy because of his ribs problems, so if he plays, he might give up the ball more easily. Whether it's Jason Brookins or injured Terry Allen at halfback, the Steelers will be run-blitzing them to death trying to get the turnover. The Ravens may not panic if they lose even though they would fall two-and-a-half games behind the Steelers. They still have five of their final seven games at home. But this is the time for the Ravens to step up and start playing like champions. If not, the Ravens road back to the Super Bowl may be through Heinz Field.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: Two years ago, these AFC Central elitists were battling for the AFC champion. Now they are battling for the cellar of the AFC Central. How the mighty have fallen. Injuries are killing these teams, so the loser will be forgetting about the playoffs. To make matters worse, neither team has a healthy running back to ride to get them out of the basement. Fred Taylor is another scratch for the Jaguars. Eddie George should sit out for the Titans. He looked horrible against the Steelers on Sunday. His ankle slowed him down. He hurt his knee. It seemed as though every part of his legs were damaged. Seeing him limp off play after play was sad. Mike Green might not be the perfect fill-in, but George needs a week off to recharge. Titans coach Jeff Fisher and Jaguars coach Tom Coughlin are baffled that their teams aren't performing with their usual energy. Fisher said his team is playing average, which isn't their style. The loser of this game won't have to worry about getting a spark. The loser will need last rites.

7. New York Jets at New Orleans Saints: All right, let's face up to the fact that the Jets might be the worst looking 4-3 team in football. They can't stop the run. They are the third worst in third-down defense. They rank 28th for passing yards. But Herm Edwards is doing well in a lot of things. He's made the Jets opportunists. They are the third best AFC team in the red zone (11 touchdowns and five field goals in 19 possessions). Plus, Curtis Martin has been unstoppable. He leads the NFL with 738 yards. Of course, as bad as the Jets have been stopping the run, NFC leader Ricky Williams, who has 557 yards, could close the game dramatically. The Saints offense finally found their rhythm in last Sunday's 34-31 comeback victory over the Rams. One of the changes was getting Aaron Brooks to roll out of the pocket a little more. Pro Bowler Joe Horn, bottled up during the Saints first five games, exploded for eight catches and 121 yards and should get on a roll. The Saints defensive line should also get back into its pass-rushing mode. Kurt Warner's quick tosses had the Saints holding more at the line of scrimmage. The Saints will look at Vinny Testaverde as a big target.

6. Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears: A year ago, networks might have thought of moving the starting time of this game to 1 a.m. because Bears football was as entertaining as infomercials. Well, these Bears are exciting, so the Bears are getting prime time Sunday exposure. What the Bears have to worry about is looking past this game because they host the Packers next week. That's right, the Bears have to worry about complacency. Imagine that. You figured that Jim Miller's streak of healthy games to last forever. Miller is questionable with a hip injury. Of course, he was struggling in the 49ers game before getting driven into the Soldiers Field grass by Derek Smith. What was amazing is that Shane Matthews picked at the 49ers defense the rest of the day and score touchdowns. Matthews, a smart quarterback who throws to his progression reads, completed 25 of 31 passes for 166 yards. That's the old Chinese Water Torture Trick of dropping water on the forehead until the victim surrenders. The Browns pass rush may be better with defensive end Courtney Brown available for third-down duty. Brown has missed six games with a knee injury. Butch Davis knows he won't be able to run on the Bears, but expect him to unleash quarterback Tim Couch to test out their cornerbacks with intermediate or maybe even deep passes.

5. Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: The Lions shocked the world by releasing 380-pound first-round tackle Aaron Gibson on Tuesday. He is replaced by journeyman Matt Joyce. Tony Semple, a journeyman guard, is replacing former first-rounder Stockar McDougle, who's been out with a foot injury. And wasn't Charlie Batch benched early in the season because of being vulnerable to sacks. Let the 49ers pass rush begin. Despite adding first-rounder Andre Carter and Dana Stubblefield to the defensive line, the 49ers have only eight sacks. The Lions have allowed 28. Memo to Charlie, "Duck." Matt Millen may have to come out of the owners box to help Batch in maximum protection to keep him safe. The 49ers took their overtime loss to the Bears hard, so they will be fighting mad this week. Expect a big game from wide receiver Terrell Owens.

4. Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins: Mike Holmgren was probably too conservative in going for the field goal down four points with less than two minutes to go in last Sunday's 24-20 loss to the Dolphins. Wait until you see him this week. See Shaun Alexander run. See him run again. See him run again. And why not? The Redskins are giving up 144 yards a game on the ground. Alexander is capable to doing that on any given Sunday. Plus, it makes life easier for Matt Hasselbeck, who is still feeling his way as the Seahawks starting quarterback. Owner Dan Snyder might not like to admit this, but the defense is starting to come together under Marty Schottenheimer. Play-makers such as LaVar Arrington are making play after play. Champ Bailey is hard to beat at cornerback. What will surprise Schottenheimer is how good the Seahawks defense is. Teams that play the Seahawks come out raving about the defense. That's not what Schottenheimer is looking for after a two-game winning streak.

3. Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills: Guess what? Rob Johnson is winning back fans in Buffalo. Really, he is. What was once regarded as foolish plays in which he risk his body for injury is now being regarded as courage. Johnson has been sacked 20 times. He's run 29 times and these aren't plays that are designed. He's not Daunte Culpepper although Johnson moves pretty good. Since the Colts last meeting against the Bills Sept. 23 during a 42-26 victory, the Bills have gotten better around coach Gregg Williams. Where the Colts have to be concerned is that their 29th ranked defense could be at risk in Buffalo. The Colts don't want 35-28 games every week because Jim Mora's 66 years old. Though he's in great physical shape, no defensive coach wants that kind of stress weekly. Edgerrin James says he will play despite a knee injury but you have to wonder if he will be at his 100-yard self on the turf in cold Orchard Park. This is dangerous game against the Colts, who have a big home game against the Dolphins next week.

2. New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons: This is classic matchup of two teams that are good one week and poor the next. Of the two, the Patriots have been the most consistent. Tom Brady survived his first bad game (four interceptions) by at least showing that his offense could do well on the road against the Broncos last week. The Falcons are coming off a bye week and Chris Chandler may need the first quarter to get the rust off the play-action passing game. It's nice that Bill Belichick can get on the road so he can get away from the daily distraction of receiver Terry Glenn, who is catching more fines than footballs while recovering from hamstring problems. The defense is built to play on the Foxboro grass in windy, cold conditions. The Georgia Dome is warm, dry and quiet because of the abundance of empty seats. Chandler is hoping that receiver Tony Martin is back so he can really get his play-action passing game going.

1. Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: All right, Jim Fassell. We get the point that you are angry. We've seen enough press conferences in which we see you saying how angry you are. Maybe the players should see the press conferences. This three-game losing streak is inexcusable. Kerry Collins seems to be one problem. He's not showing the fire and making the big plays on the offense. No one can explain the loss to the Redskins. But the season is starting to slip away from the Giants so they need to whip one of the worst teams in football. Clint Stoerner got away with a 93-yard passing day against the Cardinals, but he might have negative yards if the Giants defense shows the anger that Fassell is seeking. The Giants need to win so we can stop seeing those Fassell sound bites talking about how angry he is. Also, don't you get the feeling that this will be the week Ryan Leaf gets a chance to play. He would have only been used if the Cowboys needed a couple deep passes late in the Cardinals game. Figuring the Cowboys will be playing from behind this Sunday, those long throws may be needed.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.









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