Clayton 1st and 10

John Clayton

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Wednesday, October 10
Updated: October 12, 11:27 AM ET
 
First ... And 10: Bad news for Giants

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games to get you ready for Sunday and Monday. Here's his look at Week 5.

First ... New York Giants at St. Louis Rams: From the playbook of Tony Dungy, one of the best ways to slow down the Rams offense is to keep it off the field and control the clock with a running game.

Marshall Faulk
Marshall Faulk is first on the Rams with 31 receptions through four games.

Not so fast Jim Fassel. Tiki Barber is too soon in his recovery from a hamstring injury to play Sunday's game against the Rams. Ron Dayne has a stiff neck and is questionable. Rookie Damon Washington is the only back practicing and he has a sore shoulder. Talk about bad timing.

The Rams offense is truly amazing. Quarterback Kurt Warner has a lofty 115 quarterback rating, 72.4 percent completions and 11 touchdown passes. Marshall Faulk leads the NFC with 31 receptions and five touchdowns and is second in running with 336 yards. They are on a roll.

It would be tough enough for the Giants to hold down the Rams on the grass field at the Meadowlands, but the Giants have to go on the fast track in St. Louis. And now with their injuries, the Giants don't have a lot of ability to slow down the game with the running game. That's like skydiving without a parachute.

No doubt, the Giants defensive line will give the Rams problems. Their numbers haven't been great. While Kenny Holmes, Michael Strahan and company will apply pressure and try to get a lot of hits on Warner, the secondary is young and will have problems. Jason Sehorn will hold his own trying to stop Isaac Bruce. Rookie cornerbacks Will Allen and Will Peterson will be getting their baptism in trying to stop "The Show."

Those problems will put more pressure on Giants quarterback Kerry Collins, whom Fassel is challenging. Collins is completing only 54.8 percent of his passes and has as many interceptions (five) as he has touchdown passes (five).

The Rams are striving to get to their Nov. 4 bye weekend with a 7-0 record, but to do that, they would need this victory over the Giants and gear up for an Oct. 28 home game against the Saints. After that, they don't have to face many winning teams.

It's unlikely that the Rams will go undefeated, but they are hard to beat at the moment. Warner doesn't lose home games. That's bad news for the Giants.

And 10. Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts: Bobby Knight can't resign from the Indiana Hoosiers, so the Colts and their fans can't be distracted as they were a year ago. Few will forget the game last year. Knight lost his job and the Colts lost a 24-7 halftime lead. The Raiders scored 31 consecutive points en route to a 38-31 victory. After the game, Raiders middle linebacker Greg Biekert said he was able to pick up on Peyton Manning's cadence and anticipate plays. So you know the Colts will have extra zip in their no-huddle offense. They have had an extra week off to lament their lopsided road loss to the Patriots. The Colts will try to take advantage of the Raiders banged up defensive line, which is trying to make it to next week's bye. Darrell Russell returns after a four-game suspension, but the line is missing Trace Armstrong for the season and defensive tackle Roderick Coleman for this game because of a torn hamstring. Defensive tackle Grady Jackson also is playing on a sore shoulder. The Colts are preparing for an ambush for this Sunday night game.

9. Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers: Brett Favre had his problems with the tough Bucs defense last week. Wait until he sees the Ravens? They are at their best, limiting offenses to lower numbers than last year's record setting season. Cornerbacks Chris McAlister and Duane Starks are playing their best football, and safeties Rod Woodson and Corey Harris are playing like Pro Bowlers. Throw in veteran safety Carnell Lake and the nickel defense is hard to beat. The only team to have more three-and-outs than the Ravens are baseball's Milwaukee Brewers, who had more strikeouts than hits. That's the difference. The Ravens do three-and-outs and they hit you. Ravens quarterback Elvis Grbac is starting to develop a style with the offense. He's finding flanker Travis Taylor and tight end Shannon Sharpe. Coach Brian Billick is doing a good job mixing in running backs Terry Allen, Moe Williams and Jason Brookins to get some kind of a running game. What the Ravens worry about is the crowd noise in Lambeau. They know that if the crowd and miscommunication creates turnovers, the Ravens tend to get themselves in position for defeats.

8. Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: Dave Wannstedt has lost sleep all week. He's had nightmares about last year's 40-37 overtime loss to the Jets on Monday night. That was a game in which the game plan was flawless. Lamar Smith rushed for 155 yards. The Dolphins led 30-7 going into the fourth quarter and then proceeded to blow the game. Vinny Testaverde got hot, and the Jets had one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history. Wannstedt figures to run well against the Jets. The Jets defensive line can't stop anybody. If Jay Fiedler executes his offense without mistakes, they could hold a big lead by the third or fourth quarter. But how can he enjoy that coming off last year's experience? To stuff the run, the Jets might have to blitz more, leaving them more vulnerable to big plays. The Dolphins figure to minimize the big play ability of the Jets receivers, but the Jets run the ball well with Curtis Martin. This game will identify whether or not the Jets can play with the top teams in the AFC.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans: The Titans season is at the crisis stage. They are 0-3, and they are banged up at key positions. Eddie George is questionable with an ankle sprain. Wide receiver Derrick Mason is less than 80 percent because of a high ankle sprain. Tight end Frank Wycheck has a stiff neck. The secondary is down four players because of injuries, and offensive schemes are putting strong safety Blaine Bishop into more coverage than run stopping. The good news for the Titans is that even though the Bucs might be the NFC's Super Bowl representative, they are so conservative on offense that they could keep the lowly Cowboys one play away from winning the game. The Titans are obviously better than the Cowboys, who lost by four points to the Bucs in the opener. Figure this to be one of the lowest scoring games of the weekend. George might gut it out and play, but don't figure him to be getting 120 yards rushing. If he were 100 percent healthy, George would have a hard time getting 100 yards against the Bucs defense. Still, this will be pound-it-out-low-scoring football.

6. Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: Lions management says it's 100 percent behind Charlie Batch now that he's returned to the starting quarterback job. We'll see if that faith lasts if he gets sacked twice or throws an interception in the first half. The Lions musical chairs at quarterback is starting to look like line shifts at Red Wings games. Because of the confusion and underachieving on defense, the Lions, once a playoff contender, have turned into one of the least competitive teams in the NFL. That's just what the Vikings need. They need a confidence booster. At 1-3, the Vikings figure to exploit the depleted Lions secondary. Randy Moss might run out all of his routes. Cris Carter won't make the mental mistakes. Nothing will change with Daunte Culpepper. He will keep throwing his fastballs until receivers start catching them. The Vikings are hoping the Lions are good for what ails them.

5. Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks: If the Seahawks have any hopes of contending for a playoff spot, this is their make-or-break game. They know the Broncos are more solid. Brian Griese is in a zone throwing to Rod Smith. Mike Anderson is getting his timing down running the football behind his well-coached offensive line. Third-down conversions, which dropped following the season-ending injury to Ed McCaffrey, are starting to come back. Mike Holmgren's key decision is at quarterback. Trent Dilfer settled down the inconsistencies on the offense and pulled out a big victory over the Jaguars last Sunday. But the Seahawks belong to Matt Hasselbeck, who is coming back following a groin pull. If Holmgren starts Hasselbeck and he struggles, the Husky Stadium crowd might not forgive him. This series used to sell out in Seattle. Not any more. The Seahawks' six-win season last year coupled with Mariners playoff baseball have left empty seats and frustrated fans.

4. San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots: Doug Flutie has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in games against a Bill Belichick defense. Of course, he did that not having a running back like LaDainian Tomlinson in his backfield. Belichick loves dropping eight defenders into coverage and trying to block Flutie's passing lanes. If Tomlinson can gash that strategy with running plays, Flutie might survive and pull out of a victory. The Patriots have had trouble stopping the run. Three backs have had 100-yard games, and that's the expected production from Tomlison. The Patriots don't have many weapons to score on the Chargers. Tom Brady gets the start for the injured Drew Bledsoe, but other than Troy Brown, he doesn't have a lot of play-makers to break open the game. Antowain Smith has been a nice option in the backfield but he is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry. This should be a low-scoring game.

3. Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: Are the Browns for real? Maybe, and if they can get past their state rivals, they have a chance to make a wild-card run. Butch Davis brought a toughness to their team. Tim Couch is evolving into a winning quarterback, and Davis is doing a good job of stuffing the run long enough to keep Couch close enough down the stretch to win games. Since their victories over the Ravens and Patriots, the Bengals have been in free fall. Corey Dillon hasn't broke through for a 100-yard game since the opener. Quarterback Jon Kitna isn't spreading the field with completions. This game will determined whether or not the expansion Browns, in their third year, have passed the Bengals. Losing defensive tackle Tony Williams for a month won't help. Coach Dick LeBeau is considering shaking up a few of his starting positions.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are down to three healthy receivers. The Steelers could be down to 10 healthy receivers, but there is no guarantee that any would get the ball. The Steelers rank 28th in the passing offense. Quarterback Kordell Stewart is averaging only 5.29 yards a pass attempt, third lowest in the AFC. The good news is that he is dumping the ball off and improving his completion percentage to 61.4. But the fact that halfback Jerome Bettis is averaging 5.2 yards a carry makes you wonder why the Steelers risk throwing the ball. Trent Green is struggling in the Chiefs offense with a modest 71.9 quarterback rating, but week to week, he needs a briefing to determine who is going to be at wide receiver. Derrick Alexander is hurt against. For a game like this, why risk passing the ball.

1. Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: The biggest upset of this game is that somebody has to win. Most people figured each franchise would go 0-14-2, settling for a tie in their division matchups. The only other loser in this Monday Night fray beside the team that gets outscored is ABC, which has to televise it. The only salvation might be a presidential address with good news on the war on terrorism. Imagine if you are Tony Banks. The Cowboys cut you and didn't have a replacement. But if Banks loses to Anthony Wright, he might want to consider another sport. The Redskins plan to call more running plays for Stephen Davis. The Cowboys better call more running plays for Emmitt Smith or he'll be unhappy. Redskins owner Dan Snyder wanted to run a Jerry Jones-like franchise. Well, here they both are at 0-4. I guess he succeeded.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.









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