Bucs coach Tony Dungy expects his defense to win a lot of games.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that is, can't get there from here. No how, no way. You've got better odds of landing that guest spot on "Spin City" than the Bucs have of playing for any of the Big Change in January while being clinically unable to score points.

Right, that's what the rules say.

And yet ...

And yet there is that defense, the one that forced five interceptions last week in a huge victory in Seattle. And yet the Bucs are the team that has rung up four consecutive victories, misfiring offense and all, to get to 7-4 heading into tonight's home game against Minnesota.

Take a long look at this year's NFC, the one with upstart St. Louis high at the top and everybody else scrambling around for the right to be named the prohibitive challenger.

Are we sure Tampa Bay can't happen?

If it helps, think of this as a sort of grand experiment. It could set football back 50 years (average score of a Tampa game so far this season: 16-13), but what the heck: If Tony Dungy is right about being able to win and win deep into the playoffs with an almost purely defensive team, then the league would be forced to reconsider, however briefly, its notions about what it takes to form a championship contender.

And this isn't to say that the Bucs are there. Last week's 16-3 pummeling of the Seahawks notwithstanding, this hasn't been the season that Tampa Bay won over many doubters. After struggling along so much of the year with the Trent Dilfer dilemma at quarterback, Dungy tonight sends out a pure rookie, Shaun King, for his first NFL start behind center, which is not necessarily the dream scenario for a team entertaining serious postseason thoughts here in Week 13 of the campaign.

Without detracting from King's promise, this doesn't shape up as a Tampa scorefest. And with the point-per-drawn-breath Vikings looming on the other side of the ball, this game takes shape as yet another one that Dungy will ask his defense to win.

On the other hand: Why not? With Warren Sapp prowling the line of scrimmage and Hardy Nickerson leading the very intelligent and reactive linebacking corps, with a secondary that has allowed the fewest passing yards in the conference, why shouldn't Dungy feel free to ask his defense to win? It isn't against the law. Teams even do it sometimes.

"I've always said that there are a lot of ways to score touchdowns in this league," said Dungy, the defensive specialist. "It doesn't just have to be the offense that scores. Your defense has to help out once in a while, too."

This has been a fascinating season in Tampa. Despite having a unit that has won praise for its stinginess on defense, the Bucs actually have roundly lost the takeaway-giveaway contest this season. Even with the Seattle game counted, they're at minus-6 for the year. There's only one other team in the NFC with a winning record and a negative turnover ratio, Minnesota. And why? Well, it's simple: The Vikes score enough points to overcome their occasional flubs.

There exists no such margin for error on Dungy's team, not with the NFL's 26th-ranked offense out there kicking around. Think of it this way: The Bucs have won two games this year when the offense didn't even score a touchdown. Try building a championship out of that.

Dungy is trying, and it remains an effort worth watching. The Bucs so confused the Seahawks with their defensive schemes last week that Seattle running back Ricky Watters later said, "It was as if we didn't even practice. We didn't even know where they were coming from out there."

The potent Vikings pose another challenge altogether; but for the sake of the argument, let's say Tampa Bay finds a way to win tonight. That would mean an 8-4 record, a share of the lead in the NFC Central and a very attractive remaining schedule: Home against Detroit and Green Bay, on the road against Oakland and Chicago.

It probably couldn't happen, a serious run by the Bucs. The odds say no. And yet there's that defense. And we'll see what the defense says about the odds, beginning tonight.