Every year, graduation takes a toll on women's college basketball programs around the country.
Add in coaching changes, transfers and injuries, and an NCAA Tournament shoo-in could become a bubble team. Of course, it works the other way, as well.
With all those intangibles in mind, here are five teams to keep an eye on this season. They might be heading up. They might be heading down. Either way, keep a look out for:
Oregon
Last season: 23-8 overall, 14-4 in Pac-10 (First round)
Skinny: Jody Runge has put together a good team, one that just goes about its business. However, the Ducks might lack the quickness you need at the elite level. You have to have quickness and an outside shooting threat, and Oregon lost that when Shaquala Williams, the reigning Pac-10 Player of the Year, suffered an ACL tear in mid-September. Williams led the Ducks in many categories last season -- including points (17.7 average) and assists (4.3). Right now, the Ducks appear to lack that go-to player, and at this level, you don't win by committee.
UC Santa Barbara
Last season: 30-4 overall, 15-0 in Big West (First round)
Skinny: Point guard Stacy Clinesmith has graduated, and three-time Big West Player of the Year Erin Buescher has transferred to the Master's College, an NAIA school in California. Both losses will hurt, particularly Buescher's departure. During her three years, the Gauchos were 83-14, and Buescher averaged 17.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 2.0 steals per game as a junior. Still, this team has talent and will develop as the season goes along. UC Santa Barbara also will be looking to atone for that first-round loss as a No. 4 seed to Rice in last year's NCAA Tournament -- a loss that snapped the nation's longest winning streak at 26 games and the Gauchos' 25-game home winning streak. However, the Gauchos might really struggle to even reach the NCAA Tournament after such significant losses.
Texas Tech
Last season: 28-5 overall, 13-3 in Big 12 (Elite Eight)
Skinny: Coach Marsha Sharp has done a lot with this program and hopefully will be able to continue the momentum. But after graduating three starters, this could be a tough season. A trio of Texas freshmen from the Amarillo area must develop and find their roles quickly to complement Big 12 Freshman of the Year Plenette Pierson and Katrisa O'Neal.
Michigan
Last season: 22-8 overall, 13-3 in Big Ten (First round)
Skinny: The Wolverines surprised a lot of people last season, breaking into the top 25 and making just their third NCAA Tournament appearance. Coach Sue Guevara has done a good job of building this program and getting some quality players in Ann Arbor. However, it's definitely going to be hard to replace forward Stacey Thomas, who graduated. Thomas, Michigan's first Kodak All-American (1999-2000 honorable mention), was last season's Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and capped her career as Michigan's fourth all-time scorer. Replacing the defensive and rebounding abilities she brought to the Wolverines will be tough.
Boston College
Last season: 26-9 overall, 12-4 in Big East (Second round)
Skinny: Alissa Murphy and Cal Bouchard, the Eagles' top two scorers last season, have graduated, and will be sorely missed. Bouchard did a lot for this team last season, and after seeing her at the Olympics, where she played really well for the Canadian national team, the Eagles will miss her a lot. However, this is a strong rebounding team that proved it's tough by tying for third place in the competitive Big East Conference last season. The Eagles shouldn't have a problem making a return trip to the the NCAA Tournament, but they might not get any further than last season's second-round appearance.
