Rod Gilmore

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Friday, September 1
 
Notre Dame, UCLA top list of must see games

By Rod Gilmore
Special to ESPN.com

Texas A&M at Notre Dame
Much like USC did against Penn State, I expect Notre Dame to make a statement in this game. That statement? "Notre Dame is on its way back, and here's our traditional option to prove it!"

Bob Davie has to re-establish Notre Dame's identity as a team that runs the football and stops the run. And, Texas A&M may be just what the doctor ordered. At first glance, the Aggies appear to be the kind of fast and tough opponent that has presented problems for Notre Dame in the past. Closer analysis shows that the Aggies "Wrecking Crew" defense and tough rushing offense are not what they used to be. Although the A&M defense only gave up an average of 114 yds per game rushing, power rushing teams -- inside rushing and double team blocking -- gave the Aggies fits last year. Nebraska rang up 335 yards, Texas Tech got 185 yards and Penn State picked up 175. Heck, even pass happy Oklahoma rang up 165 yards running the ball. (So who DID the Aggies stop on the ground?) The Wrecking Crew defense is fast, but small -- particularly up front and at linebacker. The loss of Rocky Bernard last week (knee) exacerbates the problem because he was the biggest starter on the defensive line at 280+ pounds. (They will now average about 255 up front.) There is no Dat Nguyen on this defense, but they do have eight starters back.

Arnaz Battle
Expect Notre Dame to utilize QB Arnaz Battle's running ability.
Expect Notre Dame to attack Texas A&M with RB Julius Jones and QB Arnaz Battle on the ground. As a freshman last year, Jones, the younger brother of Thomas Jones (Virginia/Arizona Cardinals), made you say "wow". At 5'10, 200, he just explodes into the hole and out of the grasp of defenders. Notre Dame will make sure he gets 20+ carries. Don't expect Battle to throw it very much because he's not skilled as a passer. However, he's a better runner than Jackson. A&M will likely encourage Battle to keep the ball instead of pitching to Jones. Battle will make them pay for that choice.

Notre Dame will turn the ball over (minus-4 turnover margin last year) because the option is a high risk offense (with all of the pitching and pulling the ball out) and Battle is inexperienced. Texas A&M will need to cause four turnovers to win. Don't expect much from the A&M offense because there are inexperienced players at the skill positions. QB Mark Farris makes his first start, and A&M lost the strength of their receiving corps to graduation. That means Ja'Mar Toombs (265lbs) should carry the ball more. Notre Dame's defense should be able to load up against the run and keep A&M in check.

Plus, I think all of the off-field tragedies that the Aggies have been through have been a distraction, and have made football and preparing for the season not-so-important. There was the bonfire tragedy last year, and then DL Terry Nichols was killed in a car accident this summer. That doesn't leave you feeling that beating Notre Dame is that important.

Alabama at UCLA
You don't want to miss this one. It has traditional powerhouse programs and Heisman Trophy candidates on the field. It should also be high scoring.

UCLA features a lot of talented skill position players (WR Freddie Mitchell and WR Brian Poli-Dixon), but RB DeShaun Foster (Heisman dark, dark horse) is the best of them all. When UCLA was ringing up 40 points a game two years ago, Foster was one of the big reasons. As a freshman that year, he scored 12 TDs. Not surprising since he scored 59 TD as a high school senior! Last year, an ankle injury hampered Foster and UCLA averaged only 20 points a game. Part of that was due to inexperienced QB play, but that should change now. Corey Paus has a year under his belt and a healthy Foster. Expect Foster to have a big game. But, UCLA's down field passing game will suffer if Paus doesn't get protection. Bama will attack with a 4 man rush early, and if that doesn't work they'll keep adding blitzers until they get it right.

Although UCLA could score a lot, Alabama should score even more. UCLA would like to limit the "touches" Heisman candidate Freddie Milons gets, but it won't happen. He'll get the ball on reverses, inside screens and catches down the field. Heck, he'll take the snap from center if necessary (he did it last year).

But the bigger story for Alabama will be checking out whether Andre Zow stays ahead of Tyler Watts in the QB Derby, and whether the offense misses LT Chris Samuels (Redskins) or RB Shaun Alexander (Seahawks) more. I'm betting they'll miss Samuels more. Watch whether Bama runs behind Dante Ellington, Samuels' replacement, in key situations.

Alabama's speed should prove to be too much for UCLA, but the Bruins will do the Pac-10 proud in this game.

Toledo at Penn State
Are the Penn State Nittany Lions as bad as they looked against USC? They couldn't run the ball, couldn't stop USC from running and suffered a blocked punt. But Penn State's biggest challenge against Toledo will be to straighten out QB Rashard Casey. One way to do that is to allow Casey to use his mobility. Against USC, Casey was 7 of 24 and all passes were pocket passes. Don't be surprised if Penn State puts in some sprint out action and otherwise moves the pocket to help Casey. Toledo is a good team and returns 20 starters, but don't expect Toledo to equal its 239 yards per game rushing average against Penn State.

Southern Miss at Tennessee
Jeff Kelly
Southern Miss' Jeff Kelly threw for 2,62 yards and 21 TDs last season.
This game is becoming such a trendy upset pick that it should make you wary of it. However, there are good reasons to think the Golden Eagles will knock off Tennessee.

First, the Golden Eagles play well against big time opponents. Had their offense not given up 13 points in each game, they would have knocked off Nebraska and Texas A&M last year. And, a guy named Favre knocked off Florida State a few years ago. Second, Southern Miss' defense is experienced and great. They finished eighth in rush defense last year (91.5 yards), sixth in turnover margin (+10), and 10th in scoring defense (15.6 pts/game). Led by DL Cedric Scott, Southern Miss could dominate a Tennessee offense that is inexperienced at several key spots. Sophomore QB Joey Mathews appears to have won the starting job by default after freshman Casey Clausen got hurt, and TWO Freshman will start on the offensive line (including Hall of Famer Anthony Munoz's boy, Michael). Third, Southern Miss QB Jeff Kelly is more experienced and will not give up as many picks this year (he gave up 11 last year).

However, this is still Tennessee, and Philip Fulmer still has RB Travis Henry and WR Cedric Wilson. Henry is always overlooked, but can control a game. He averaged 6.3 yards a carry last year. Also, the game will be in front of 104,000 Orange and White clad fans. But if the Tennessee defense doesn't score or set up scores for the young offense, Southern Miss could dominate.

Arizona at Utah
This is a must win for the Pac-10. USC helped the Pac-10's image by whipping Penn State, but that can all be undone with a loss to the Mountain West. Indeed, the fact that the Mountain West beat up on the Pac-10 hurt the conference as much as the pounding Penn State gave Arizona last year.

Utah should contend for the Mountain West title, but the focus of this game is Arizona and Senior QB Ortege Jenkins. You remember him, don't you? He had the heels-over-head touch run-flip that beat Washington in dramatic fashion two seasons ago. Jenkins hasn't received much pub lately because Arizona stumbled last year, and Jenkins did not play well. He shared the QB job with Keith Smith the last couple of years, but it's his job now. Jenkins should be irritated that no one mentions his name when the Pac-10 top QBs are mentioned. He's motivated. He lost 20 pounds and is quicker than ever. Expect Dick Tomey to turn Jenkins loose in this ball game.

Colorado vs. Colorado State (at Denver)
Rivalries like this shouldn't be played in the first week. We need a couple of weeks to listen to smack. So far, CSU has been able to withstand the desire to gloat over the 41-14 woodshed job they gave CU last year. The loss bothered CU coach Gary Barnett, but what really irked him was that CSU was more PHYSICAL. That was evident by CSU's 9 sacks and how well CSU ran the ball at Colorado. Last year, Colorado ranked 83rd out 114 teams in rushing defense. But by the time Colorado got to the Insight.com bowl, the Buffs were starting to buy into Barnett's philosophy of tough run defense and a physical running game. Cortlen Johnson ran for 201 yards in that game. Don't expect young CU QB Zac Colvin to throw it enough to be sacked 9 times this year. Freshman RB Marcus Houston and Johnson will get physical with Sonny Lubick's crew.

But remember, in the first couple weeks of the season the kicking game can be sloppy. Expect CSU star return man Dallas Davis to take advantage of that. Davis is also a threat on offense -- he had 51 catches last season. With tough RB Kevin McCougal graduated, the Rams may have to rely on Davis' return skills more than they would like.

Georgia Southern at Georgia
Take your eyes off Quincy Carter for a minute and check out the Georgia defense in this game against I-AA Georgia Southern. If the 'Dawgs are going to win the SEC East, their defense will have to give up less than the 26 points per game they gave up last year. Georgia Southern RB Adrian Peterson is the best running back you haven't seen. He's the 1999 Walter Payton Award Winner and has gained more than 3,700 yards in two season (almost 1,000 in the playoffs last year)! He has a streak of 30 consecutive 100 yard games, and had an eye-popping 58 yard, 7 tackle-breaking run in the I-AA title game last year. Richard Seymore is out this game, but if DT Marcus Stroud and company can't stop Peterson's streak, then Georgia may not be as good as we think they are.

Bowling Green at Michigan
No Drew Henson for Michigan. The question isn't whether Michigan will win (they will, and big), but whether Henson's replacement, John Navarre, looks like he can run the offense until Henson gets back. Expect Navarre to play like a redshirt freshman and make several mistakes, but it won't hurt Michigan much at all. Bowling Green's defense is weak and Navarre will gain some confidence this week.







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