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Sunday, October 28
Updated: October 29, 12:10 PM ET
 
Miami now controls its BCS fate

By Brad Edwards
Special to ESPN.com

It's not often that a 1 vs. 2 matchup fails to generate the biggest story of the day, but that indeed was the case on Saturday.

The national headlines were stolen by Joe Paterno, who became the winningest coach in major college football history. The BCS headlines, however, tell the story of one big loss by a team near the top of the standings that equaled one big win for another title contender.

Stock up: Miami
Just a few hours after the Hurricanes saw one of their most disastrous possible results transpire -- a pre-December loss by Virginia Tech -- the door to Pasadena was opened, and the red carpet was rolled out. The loss by UCLA and, just for good measure, the loss by Washington State assured there will be no undefeated team in the Pac-10 this season, paving the way for Miami to reach the Rose Bowl presented by AT&T by simply winning the remainder of its games.

Without those losses, it still would have been a good day for the 'Canes, as key opponents Penn State, Florida State, Boston College and Washington all won games on Saturday in which they were either tied or trailing in the fourth quarter. But now Miami has no need to watch any scoreboard other than its own. As long as the Hurricanes remain No. 1 in both polls, it seems next to impossible for them to be excluded from the BCS top two. That's the good news they've been waiting quite a while for.

Stock down: Nebraska
They conquered the No. 1 team in the BCS, ended the nation's longest winning streak and avenged last season's embarrassing loss. They moved to the top of this week's rankings. But despite all this, the Huskers have to be wondering if it made any difference.

Certainly, it was a game Nebraska needed to win. A loss on its home field might have done enough damage in the polls to place the Huskers' national title hopes in a desperate position. But now that the smoke has cleared, not much has changed. One loss at Colorado, and Nebraska might not even win its division of the Big 12. And if they do finish the regular season without a blemish, they might just be facing this past weekend all over again on Dec. 1 -- Sooners and Cornhuskers…this time on a neutral field…this time for the Big 12 title…this time for a spot in the national championship game.

So what was Saturday all about? College football purists have long maintained that the game is special because every weekend has meaning, making the season like a long playoff. Win, and you advance. Lose, and you might be waiting until next year. But this past Oklahoma-Nebraska matchup now has the feel of a 1 vs. 2 game in the college basketball regular season. It generated a lot of hype, lived up to its billing and made us look forward to a possible rematch that will really count.

Nebraska's stock hasn't really dropped. It just feels like they wasted a fantastic effort.

Under the radar
We knew this was likely to be the first Rose Bowl in 56 years that did not match teams from the Big Ten and what is now the Pac-10. But, even so, some people have still been holding out hope that it could happen. Some may have just been hoping a team from either conference would get there and preserve a touch of continuity and tradition. That dream, however, is fading fast. The last of the Pac-10 unbeatens went down over the weekend, and no team from the conference currently has a reasonable path to get back near the top of the BCS Standings. Big Ten frontrunner Michigan has a high ranking, but very little upside. The Wolverines do not have a ranked team remaining on their schedule and stand to collect very few bonus points at the end of the season. Miami, Nebraska and Oklahoma currently have the inside tracks to Pasadena, but if more than one falls, the next team in line is likely to be the Tennessee-Florida winner. As we saw over the weekend, nothing can be taken for granted. But the reality of a Rose Bowl at night on Jan. 3 with participants from two foreign conferences is finally starting to sink in.

We have reached the point in the season where we can focus on some of the automatic representation in the Bowl Championship Series -- a.k.a. the champions of the major conferences. One race that already seems to be down to the wire is in the ACC, where three teams are tied in the loss column entering November and have already played their head-to-head games against each other. If Florida State, Maryland and North Carolina all win out and finish with a 7-1 conference record, the tiebreaker for the BCS berth is highest average ranking in the two polls. Florida State currently has the highest at 14, followed by Maryland with 15.5 and UNC at 24. But the Seminoles still have a huge non-conference game at Florida to end the season and would likely drop in the polls with a loss there. This means that barring an FSU win in Gainesville, it looks like the Terrapins have the best chance to be BCS bound -- if they can win their final three games (vs. Troy State, Clemson and at N.C. State) and North Carolina also wins out.

The computer ratings get a lot of bad publicity for unusual results that occasionally appear, but sometimes the computers really do see more than the voters. Take Stanford, for example. The Cardinal have just one loss and have beaten a top-five team each of the last two weekends, but mysteriously, the media and coaches have them ranked behind both of those opponents in the current polls. What's up with that? The computers actually have the teams in the correct order because Stanford is not being penalized for starting the season outside of the Top 25. By the way, neither poll has them ranked higher than 10th, while no computer has the Cardinal lower than 5th.

If the season ended today...
Nebraska and Oklahoma are still the top-two teams, but don't expect the Sooners to hold onto that spot for much longer. If Miami and Oklahoma both win on Saturday, the Hurricanes should jump into the second position in next Monday's BCS Standings. The bottom line, however, is that OU still controls its own destiny in the BCS -- just as it did before losing last weekend. Because it is mathematically impossible for the Sooners and Huskers both to win out, Miami also holds its fate in its own hands.

Official BCS Standings
Through Games of Oct. 27

1. Nebraska -- 2.02
2. Oklahoma -- 7.59
3. Miami -- 7.71
4. Michigan -- 11.75
5. Texas -- 14.25
6. Stanford -- 14.57
7. Tennessee -- 15.37
8. Florida -- 16.44
9. UCLA -- 18.83
10. Oregon -- 18.87

BCS Game of the Week: North Carolina at Georgia Tech
There's not much to choose from this week, so here's a little something extra to know about ESPN's Thursday night game. Obviously, North Carolina must win to preserve its hopes for a share of the ACC title and an outside shot at a BCS bid. But the lesser-known beneficiary of the Tar Heel turnaround is the Big 12 Conference. Because both Oklahoma and Texas have wins over UNC, the Big 12 continues to gain strength in the computers as Carolina tacks on victories. And the Longhorns should have particular interest in seeing this success continue. If Oklahoma slips up one more time in the regular season, Texas could be right back in the national championship race, and anything to help their schedule strength would be much appreciated.

Brad Edwards is a college football researcher for ESPN. Inside the BCS appears weekly.







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