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Sunday, September 23
Updated: September 30, 5:10 PM ET
 
Florida State's loss shakes up the BCS

By Brad Edwards
Special to ESPN.com

It was almost an expected surprise.

Whenever we think there are few games of national significance on a given weekend, it is seemingly inevitable that an underdog will arise and shake things up. Such was the case with North Carolina's surprising manhandling of Florida State on Saturday. It is an upset that not only grabbed headlines but also had a ripple effect on the national title race.

Here's a look at how that game and a few others affected the Bowl Championship Series.

Stock up: Tennessee
It is hard to find a contender that really benefited in the scope of the BCS over the weekend, but the Vols certainly received a small boost despite not taking the field themselves.

It is ironic that two games that resulted in losses for SEC teams could actually have helped another SEC member's schedule strength, but that was the case when South Carolina beat Mississippi State on Thursday and Syracuse beat Auburn on Saturday. You see, Tennessee has both South Carolina and Syracuse on its schedule but does not play either Mississippi State or Auburn.

Two results such as these may account for only a fraction of a point within the BCS formula, but you never know when that little bit might be the difference between placing second or third at the end of the season.

Stock down: Georgia Tech
On the surface, things look good for the Yellow Jackets. The teams perceived to be their primary competition for the ACC title -- Florida State and Clemson -- suffered surprising losses on Saturday and, at least for now, seem extremely vulnerable. But there is a downside to this.

First of all, if the schedule had held to form, Georgia Tech (rather than North Carolina) would have been Florida State's third opponent. Needless to say, the Jackets would have had a pretty good chance to beat FSU on September 15. That might not still be the case when the makeup date of December 1 rolls around.

Also, Saturday's upsets could be a sign of trouble for Tech within the BCS formula. Their games against the Seminoles and Tigers seemed to be the best opportunities to receive bonus points for quality wins -- a.k.a. opponents that are ranked in the final Top 15.

If these teams don't improve, the Yellow Jackets may be missing those valuable bonus points at season's end. It's a scenario that could possibly keep them out of the national title game if there is more than one other undefeated team from a major conference.

Under the radar
At the moment, most Notre Dame fans are only concerned with getting their first victory of the season, but the overly optimistic ones are trying to figure out how they might run the table from this point. That's because the BCS is like baseball: three strikes and you're out. A team with three regular-season losses is not eligible to play in one of the major bowl games unless it holds the automatic bid from a major conference. And, as you probably know, Notre Dame currently has two losses and is not a member of a conference. There is one little-known provision by which the Irish could still play in a BCS game with three losses, but it would require them to finish in the Top 10. The odds of any team finishing that high with that many losses are, at best, remote.

Speaking of odds, what were the chances of getting through this column without a Fresno State reference? The Bulldogs continue to take care of business on the field, but a recent business decision off the field might hurt their chances to reach a BCS bowl this season. Fresno was scheduled to play a non-conference game against Utah State on Sept. 15, which was eventually called off along with every other Division I-A game that day. The Bulldogs rescheduled it for Dec. 1 because it was a home game, meaning much-needed revenue for the athletic department. Although it was the right decision, the team would have been better off in the BCS landscape by canceling the game entirely. Utah State plays a very challenging schedule as an independent, is already 0-3 and will almost certainly finish the season with a losing record. In the end, the Aggies will have a negative effect on Fresno's schedule strength, which is so important to its chances to play in a major bowl.

If the season ended today...
Here's a pretty good educated guess of what the BCS Rankings would look like if they came out tomorrow.

Unofficial BCS Rankings
(Through games of Sept. 22)

1. Miami
2. Nebraska
3. Oregon
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. Tennessee
7. Fresno State
8. Texas
9. Washington
10. Virginia Tech

Please keep in mind that one of the major influences on the BCS formula is strength of schedule, which is calculated only using the games that have been played thus far. Therefore, expect most major conference teams to improve in this area as they get further into conference play and, consequently, continue to rise in these rankings as long as they stay unbeaten.

These projections are also using the BCS guideline of eliminating both the best and worst ranking for each team in the computers before figuring that average. Because only four of the eight computer rankings have been released at this point of the season, there are only two computers being averaged for that element of the formula.

BCS game of the week: Kansas St. at Oklahoma
September 15 was supposed to be a showdown Saturday, but as it turns out, this meeting will instead be the season's first matchup of perceived national title contenders. The Wildcats are certainly the underdog in this contest, just as the Sooners were when they traveled to Manhattan last year.

Look for the winner of this game to make a jump in next week's unofficial BCS rankings because of a big boost in both schedule strength and the computers.

Oklahoma hasn't played since Sept. 8, which could be a factor on the field. Most of the teams that played this past weekend after having had two weeks off were very sluggish, so don't be surprised if the Sooners have a poor first half.

And if it turns out to be a classic, just think, they could meet again in the Big 12 Championship. It happened last year.

Brad Edwards is a college football researcher for ESPN. His Inside the BCS appears weekly.






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