It looks like the BCS has finally succeeded.

Not only is it likely to provide a championship matchup that people want to see, but it is also giving us something that no previous system has before -- a chance to watch the top two teams play on the field, regardless of conference affiliation.

Four years ago, the inaugural BCS title game matched Tennessee and Florida State in the Fiesta Bowl, but it was a meeting that still would have taken place in previous years, only it would have instead been played in New Orleans. The following season's matchup of Virginia Tech and Florida State also could have been arranged without the help of the BCS; it just would have happened in the Fiesta rather than the Sugar.

The championship games of the past two years could have been lined up in previous bowl systems, as well, but they wouldn't have been because the public never wanted to see them in the first place. Oklahoma would have instead faced Miami for the 2000 national title, and Miami would have squared off against Colorado last season.

It's now a year too late for Oregon fans, but the BCS has finally crossed over traditional bowl lines to create a championship matchup that could not have occurred under any prior bowl structure. If No. 1 Miami wins its next two games, No. 2 Ohio State will not be stuck in the Rose Bowl hoping someone else can knock off the 'Canes in the Orange Bowl. They will get to meet head-to-head and prove which is the better team.

It took five years, but some people may finally be thinking this BCS thing wasn't such a bad idea after all.

Nightmares Are Over
Although the Rose Bowl certainly would have loved to entertain an 11-1 Washington State team, the Cougars' loss on Saturday makes it significantly less likely that the Rose might have to endure the painful possibility of seeing teams from the Big Ten and Pac-10 square off for the national title in another bowl game.

WSU did hold the inside track to face Ohio State in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl if Miami was to slip up, but the on-deck circle is now occupied by Oklahoma. The Sooners can't feel too good about the chances of Miami losing at Syracuse or at home to Virginia Tech, but OU knows from its own experience at the end of last year that improbable upsets sometimes take place.

One other disaster scenario involving the Rose Bowl was also averted last week, and it would have been even more painful to the Iowa Hawkeyes had it occurred. The only conceivable scenario that could have kept Iowa out of the Rose required a combination of these results: Pittsburgh over Miami, Ohio State over Michigan and Notre Dame over USC.

The Panthers gave the Hurricanes a scare on Thursday, but the win by Miami eliminated the possibility of UM getting a guaranteed at-large berth to the BCS. The 'Canes would now have to lose both remaining games to not win the Big East title, which would obviously prevent them from finishing in the BCS Top 4.

So, even if Notre Dame earns automatic entry to a major bowl with a Top-6 finish, the Rose will still have the opportunity to extend the other BCS at-large bid to Iowa. That means an extra $4.5 million to the Big Ten Conference -- big money that was only a Michigan TD from slipping away on Saturday.

The Other At-Large
Washington State's loss reduced the quality win bonus for Ohio State and most likely clinched the No. 1 spot in the BCS for Miami -- if the Hurricanes can win out. That would give the FedEx Orange Bowl first choice of a replacement from the pool of eligible and available BCS qualifiers.

If Notre Dame beats USC this weekend, there is little doubt that the Irish would be the Orange's initial selection. That would, in turn, send Florida State to the Nokia Sugar Bowl in order to avoid a rematch of the regular-season game between FSU and ND.

But if the Trojans win on Saturday, things become a little more complicated for the Orange. Economics suggest that the choice should still be Notre Dame, but public opinion would strongly urge otherwise. Objective logic says that if both teams are 10-2 and one beat the other, then the winner should be given preference -- especially when that team is ranked higher.

The primary intent of the BCS, however, has always been to create a matchup of the top-two teams in a national title game. The three non-championship BCS bowls are essentially exhibitions that still need to maximize their potential for attendance and ratings just like every other bowl in the country.

If the purpose of the BCS was to put the best eight teams in the four major bowls, then there would be no such things as at-large spots and automatic bids for conference champions. The Top-8 teams in the BCS Standings would just play in those games each year -- no questions asked. But like it or not, that isn't the way the system works.

For now, USC will just have to make its case on the field and let Pac-10 administrators continue to make their case to the Orange Bowl Committee. On Dec. 8, we'll see how well they did.

This is all assuming, of course, that Washington State beats UCLA on Dec. 7. If it doesn't, the Trojans will win the Pac-10 title and have absolutely no need for an at-large spot in the BCS.

'Nole Celebration
Florida State clinched the ACC's automatic bid to the BCS on Saturday, but not in the fashion the Seminoles would have preferred. After losing at North Carolina State, FSU won the title outright because of Maryland's loss to Virginia later that evening.

The defeat was the 'Noles fourth of the season, giving them the unenviable distinction of being the first team to play in a BCS game with more than three losses. . .and it's not over yet. FSU hosts Florida on Saturday, and if they lose, the Seminoles will travel to a major bowl with an 8-5 record.

Worst Records of BCS Qualifiers


			W-L	Bowl Result
'02	Florida State	8-4*	     ???
'98 	Syracuse 	8-3 	    lost
'99 	Stanford 	8-3 	    lost
'00 	Purdue 		8-3 	    lost
'01 	LSU 		9-3 	    won
* plays Florida on Saturday

BCS Standings
Ohio State is in the Fiesta Bowl, and Miami will also be there if it can win its final two games. If the Hurricanes lose to either Syracuse or Virginia Tech, Oklahoma would take their spot -- unless the Sooners also lose. So, as long as there are games to be played, a few other teams aren't out of the running quite yet.

1. Miami
2. Ohio State
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. Iowa
6. Southern California
7. Notre Dame
8. Washington State
9. Texas
10. Kansas State

What If. . .
Because none of the seven computer ratings used by the BCS this season is considering margin of victory, I thought it might be fun to see what the standings would look like with seven computers that DO look at the scoreboard. I found seven such ratings that were formerly part of the BCS and recalculated the computer averages.

Miami's number did not change. The 'Canes are still at No. 1 in five of seven computers, but neither of the other top-ranked teams is Ohio State. USC is the best team in the country, according to Herman Matthews' ratings, while the Dunkel Index has Kansas State at No. 1. Thanks to six games decided by a TD or less, the Buckeyes rank in the Top 2 of just one of these seven computers.

Using margin of victory as a factor, these computers cumulatively rank the five best teams in the country as (1) Miami (2) USC (3) Oklahoma (4) Ohio State (5) Kansas State.

BCS STANDINGS Through 11/23
If Computers Used Margin of Victory


1. Miami		2.89
2. Ohio State		5.87
3. Oklahoma		8.09
4. USC			10.71
5. Iowa			11.43
6. Georgia		12.90
7. Kansas State		16.40
8. Notre Dame		17.33

If Oklahoma wins out and looks good doing it, the Sooners could conceivably gain an additional half-point by jumping Iowa in the coaches poll. OU could also gain another four-tenths on Ohio State in the quality win column if Washington State loses at UCLA and Texas beats Texas A&M. Throw in the potential for Oklahoma to gain approximately three-tenths more in schedule strength, and the Sooners would still have a chance to jump the Buckeyes ... IF the BCS used margin of victory. But it doesn't. So, have a good time in Tempe, Ohio State fans!

Brad Edwards is a college football researcher for ESPN. Inside the BCS appears weekly.