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| Sunday, November 3 Updated: November 4, 5:43 PM ET Ohio State could be left outside looking in By Brad Edwards Special to ESPN.com |
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Now, things are starting to get interesting. There's still a chance we could finish the season with exactly two unbeaten teams, but a couple of potentially controversial scenarios might actually have a greater likelihood of transpiring. Miami, Oklahoma and Ohio State all are capable of winning their remaining games, which would leave someone's fans extremely upset. Or, at least two from that group could lose and leave us with a bunch of once-beaten teams. Under either scenario, the reaction to the national championship matchup is almost certain to be a negative one. Major-college football has never had a foolproof method for distinguishing between several teams with the same record. Not in the polls. Not in the Bowl Coalition. Not in the BCS. In a way, the sport almost feeds off its own inadequacies. And it's looking like we'll watch it do so again over the next few weeks.
The New Deal Even though the Buckeyes are slightly ahead of the Hurricanes this week, don't allow visions of disaster scenarios to start dancing in your heads. As long as the 'Canes stay in the top two of the polls, the spots in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl should be Oklahoma's and Miami's to lose. It's simply a matter of mathematics.
Even if Miami falls behind Oklahoma in both polls (it fell to No. 2 in AP this week), the 'Canes would still gain a full point in that category over the third-ranked Buckeyes. Ohio State is currently one point ahead in the schedule strength column, but that will soon change. Miami's remaining opponents (Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Virginia Tech) have a combined record of 23-12, while OSU's (Purdue, Illinois and Michigan) are just 14-13. In the end, there should be minimal schedule differential between the teams. This opponent strength will also have some effect in the computers, where the teams currently have very similar rankings. In all likelihood, Miami will have a better computer average than Ohio State if both win out, meaning OSU would still need to make up approximately one point somewhere else in the formula. All of this basically negates the one clear advantage the Buckeyes still possess, which is quality win bonus points. The victory over Washington State could be worth as much as seven-tenths of a point for OSU if the Cougars run the table, which might be seven-tenths more than Miami ultimately gets in that category, thanks to Virginia Tech's loss on Saturday. But unless the Hurricanes' opponents come apart at the seams, the Buckeyes will still need either Miami or Oklahoma to lose.
Hurricane Warnings Well, the 'Canes have since fallen in one of the two polls, and Virginia Tech now has a loss that could prevent Miami from cashing in bonus points at the end of the season. But the big victory for the Hurricanes on Saturday -- other than the fourth-quarter comeback at Rutgers -- was the success of its previous opposition.
First 7 Miami Opponents Results on Saturday The two biggest wins, of course, came from Florida and Boston College, which both managed to knock off previously undefeated teams. FSU's win was also big, considering the Seminoles trailed 21-7 at one point. A hidden bonus even came from future opponents Tennessee and Syracuse, which each pulled out a road victory in a game that was in doubt during the final 10 minutes. As long as Florida, Florida State and Tennessee remain steady, so will the championship drive of the Miami Hurricanes.
More To Come? Miami, which has looked vulnerable in its last three games, and Ohio State, which has seemed quite average away from home this season, both face an opponent that has much more talent than its record would indicate. If Tennessee finally plays a complete game (against UM), and Purdue stops beating itself with mistakes (against OSU), then we could conceivably be down to just one unbeaten team by Saturday night -- if Oklahoma can survive a trip to Aggieland, of course. This series of events would make things extremely interesting when you consider that Texas is now a solid No. 4 in the BCS. That's right! If Miami and Ohio State both fall, and Oklahoma does not, we could be looking at a Texas-Oklahoma rematch in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 3. It's possible that we could once again have a team in the national championship game that did not even win its own division of the Big 12. Texas just needs to win the rest of its games and pull against the Hurricanes and Buckeyes. Losses by those teams -- and perhaps a small bonus if Kansas State can run the table -- could be all the Longhorns need to rise from the ashes.
BCS Standings Once again, undefeated Bowling Green does not appear in the Top 15 of the BCS Standings. With one of the worst schedule strength rankings in the country, winning is just not enough for the Falcons, which may face their biggest test of the season this Saturday at Northern Illinois. Brad Edwards is a college football researcher for ESPN. Inside the BCS appears weekly. |
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