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Sunday, October 13
Updated: October 21, 1:02 PM ET
 
Notre Dame, Air Force battle big in BCS

By Brad Edwards
Special to ESPN.com

Showdown Saturday generated much excitement and a few great finishes, but in the end, it caused very little shakeup of the national championship race.

Texas was the only team to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten, and there were no real upsets in Top-20 games. Ten teams in Division I-A remain undefeated, but at least one more will fall this weekend, when Notre Dame and Air Force meet in Colorado Springs (10 p.m. ET on ESPN).

This could conceivably be the final matchup of unbeaten teams this year. The Dec. 7 meeting of Virginia Tech and Miami is the only other regular-season game with that potential.

Computer Friendly
When the New York Times ratings debuted a few weeks ago with Notre Dame at No. 1, many people suggested it was merely a publicity stunt. But the truth is that the Times computer is one of four involved in the BCS that currently has the Irish among its top-two teams, making them the only school ranked that high in that many computers.

Notre Dame In BCS Computers

Anderson/Hester 1st NY Times 1st Colley 2nd Massey 2nd Billingsley 6th Sagarin 7th

The human polls, on the other hand, say that ND is only the 7th-best team around. And judging by the votes from the media and coaches, the Irish are perceived to be the weakest team among the top tier of unbeatens. They have a good chance to alter that perception over these next two weeks with road games at Air Force and Florida State.

Bird Watching
The undefeated Falcons of Air Force and Bowling Green are still flying under the BCS radar thanks, in part, to the offseason decision to eliminate margin of victory from the computer ratings. BGSU currently ranks second in the nation in scoring margin (+28.2 ppg) and Air Force is sixth (+24.3), but neither is seeing any benefit from it within the BCS computers. The AFA is getting a much greater boost from its schedule, however, and is currently getting more respect on hard drives than it is on poll ballots.

Non-BCS Conference Unbeatens In the BCS Computers

Air Force Bowling Green Anderson/Hester 7th 15th Colley 9th 16th Sagarin 9th 23rd Massey 9th 28th NY Times 11th 63rd Billingsley 14th 9th

Air Force is now 15 in the coaches poll and 18 in AP. Bowling Green is 23rd and 25th, respectively. Poll voters -- unlike the computers -- are allowed to consider game scores as a measure of team strength, but it doesn't appear that many are doing so.

Most are ranking Oklahoma as one of the two best teams in the country, but a lot of those people do not have Bowling Green on their ballot. It should be noted that the Sooners needed a fake field goal to beat Missouri -- a team beaten 51-28 by Bowling Green earlier in the season. There are some teams outside of the major conferences that can play ball, and believe it or not, it's perfectly OK to vote for them.

The Notre Dame Clause
Last week in this column, I mentioned that the decision by the BCS to count Notre Dame's win in the Kickoff Classic would be somewhat irrelevant if the Irish improved to 6-0. The reason is that at-large eligibility for the BCS requires a final Top-12 ranking in addition to nine wins, and it would be almost impossible for ND to lose three of its last six games and still meet the Top-12 requirement (the Irish are currently No. 6).

There is, however, one very unlikely -- but possible -- scenario that could put Notre Dame in a BCS game at 9-3 without a Top-12 finish. It is the one special consideration given to the Irish by the BCS that is not available to any other team in college football. Let's call it "The Notre Dame Clause."

The BCS guidelines state in item No. 2 under Automatic Qualification for Certain At-Large Teams that "any team from a non-BCS conference or an independent institution, which is ranked three through six in the BCS Standings, shall qualify for a guaranteed selection in one of the BCS games unless more than two teams meet this criteria."

This basically means that a Top-6 BCS finish by a school not in the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 or SEC will automatically put that school in a BCS bowl. But here's where things get interesting in item No. 2.

"If one or more teams other than Notre Dame qualify for automatic selection, Notre Dame shall also qualify provided it is ranked in the top ten in the BCS Standings or has a record of at least nine wins, not including exempted games."

In other words, if Air Force or Bowling Green finishes in the final Top 6 of the BCS Standings, then Notre Dame would also be guaranteed a spot in a BCS game with at least nine wins.

Of course, the Irish are currently thinking national championship and certainly have no intention of losing even one game -- much less three. But if they fall to Air Force on Saturday, and the Falcons somehow finish with a BCS ranking of sixth or better, then a 9-3 Notre Dame team would ride the coattails of Air Force into the BCS -- even if the Irish finished worse than 12th in the BCS Standings.

It's a longshot, but it's just one more magical possibility for Notre Dame's 2002 season.

BCS Projection
It's tight at the top between Virginia Tech and Miami. Possession of the No. 1 spot has shifted between these teams a few times over the last two weeks, and the Hokies now hold a slight lead. But since they play each other at the end of the season, it really makes no difference which team is ranked ahead right now.

1. Virginia Tech
2. Miami
3. Georgia
4. Oklahoma
5. Ohio State
6. Notre Dame
7. Oregon
8. Michigan
9. Washington State
10. NC State
11. Iowa State
12. Florida State
13. Air Force

The first official BCS Standing of the season will be released next Monday, Oct. 21, on SportsCenter at 6 p.m. ET.

Other Big Games
Of course, there are more BCS storylines this weekend than the automatic qualification saga of Notre Dame and Air Force.

Oklahoma will wage another battle for Big 12 supremacy -- this time in Norman against Iowa State. These teams boast the two best records in the conference, but few experts will give the Cyclones much chance of coming away with a victory. If they do emerge victorious, however, Seneca Wallace and the boys will spring into the Top 10 of the polls and become a serious player in BCS discussions.

In Manhattan, Kansas, two teams will be fighting not only to keep national championship dreams alive but also to extend their hopes of reaching the Big 12 title game. Kansas State could potentially overcome a second conference loss and win the North division, but Texas would see its season fall apart in a two-week span with a loss to the Wildcats on Saturday.

Ohio State has not looked sharp in previous road games and must now travel to Wisconsin for another serious test. The Badgers are smarting from a 0-2 conference start and need a big win to put themselves back in contention for a solid bowl.

Brad Edwards is a college football researcher for ESPN. Inside the BCS appears weekly.







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