Three weeks remain in college football's regular season, but most of the national championship picture will be very clear after this weekend.

After dodging a major bullet in College Station on Saturday, Oklahoma held on to its No. 1 spot in the BCS Rankings, while Miami jumped over Florida State for the No. 2 position. Florida moved up to No. 4 and now gets a chance to make its claim for a spot in the FedEx Orange Bowl.

	BCS Rankings
	Rank	Team	Points
	1.	Oklahoma	2.52
	2.	Miami	6.34
	3.	Florida St.	6.82
	4.	Florida	9.62
	5.	Washington	13.44
	6.	Virginia Tech	16.03
	7.	Oregon	17.01
	8.	Nebraska	17.93
	9.	Oregon State	18.43
	10.	Kansas St.	19.65

Florida race too close to call
At the moment, all that separates Miami and Florida State for second place is a gap in strength of schedule. The teams are tied in the loss column, Miami has a one-point poll advantage and FSU leads by one point in the computers. Just 12 spots in schedule ranking account for Miami's current margin of +.48 points.

Of course, this will change after Saturday, when FSU plays 9-1 Florida and Miami takes on 5-4 Syracuse. Miami then has one more game against 6-4 Boston College. What this means is that both teams should finish in the top 10 for schedule strength. Who places higher may come down to the wins and losses of their key opponents (see chart below), although close may be good enough for the Seminoles.

The computer margin between FSU and Miami will probably not finish at exactly one point, so a change in either direction would be huge for one team. Provided Oklahoma also wins out, here are the battleground areas in the computers that might decide the race between the Seminoles and Hurricanes -- the numbers behind the numbers, if you will. Keep in mind that each spot of movement causes a change of .14 points for that team in the overall BCS score.

Sagarin Computer: Nebraska ranks third at 97.23 points and Miami is fourth at 96.59, which is a fairly small gap. Miami has a chance to move into third place.

Anderson & Hester Computer/Seattle Times: Washington ranks second and Miami is third. If Washington loses this weekend, Miami would move up to second.

Billingsley Computer: Florida ranks third, and Miami is fourth. A Florida loss to FSU should move Miami up a spot.

Dunkel Index: Oklahoma ranks first at 119.0 points. Florida State is second at 118.9. There is a chance FSU could climb back into first in these ratings.

Matthews Computer/Scripps-Howard: Washington ranks third, Florida is fourth and Miami is fifth. If Washington and Florida lose, Miami could move all the way up to third. This would be huge because this computer is the one currently not considered in the Hurricanes' average.

Rothman Computer: Miami ranks second at 79.20 points, while FSU is third at 79.19. Obviously, this is about as tight as it can get, and it stands to be the most important battleground of them all. If these teams switch places, it would account for almost three-tenths of a point in the overall standings.

Gators in striking distance
Now that we have established the essence of the battle between FSU and Miami, know that you can forget all of it if Florida pulls off the upset in Tallahassee. Unfortunately for Miami, the Gators may actually have a better chance of jumping them than the Noles do.

Florida should finish ahead of the Canes in schedule strength, so a one-point computer advantage would likely be enough for them. But would they climb that high? It's tough to project what the average would be in this scenario, but it seems that Florida would move to No. 2 in most of the computers. We'll know soon enough.

Key opponent games
Because the Gators are right in the middle of this hunt, it is necessary to include them in this week's version of the BCS Games of the Week. These are the games that will have the biggest impact on final strength of schedule rankings.

Miami
WASHINGTON at Washington St.
WEST VIRGINIA vs. East Carolina
RUTGERS vs. Notre Dame
LOUISIANA TECH at Hawaii

Florida State
BYU vs. New Mexico
LOUISVILLE at Houston
CLEMSON vs. South Carolina
WAKE FOREST at Navy

Florida
BALL ST. vs. Connecticut
MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. UL Lafayette
MISSISSIPPI ST. vs. Arkansas
AUBURN at Alabama
GEORGIA vs. Ole Miss
SOUTH CAROLINA at Clemson

File this one away
In this space last week, I said it was highly unlikely that any of the Pac-10 teams could get into the national championship race, and though I still believe that to be true, the list of outcomes needed to open the back door is slowly shrinking.

You want controversy? Try this scenario on for size.

Miami loses at Syracuse, Oregon beats Oregon State, Washington beats Washington State and Oklahoma loses the Big 12 title game to Kansas State (in Kansas City) -- all very possible outcomes. This would make the Florida-Florida State winner the No. 1 team in the nation and likely place Washington -- the Pac-10 runner-up -- as the opponent in the FedEx Orange Bowl.

You think the current FSU-Miami possibility would be bad? How about a No.2 team that not only lost to the No. 3 team head-to-head (if Oregon would even be No. 3) but also is ranked behind that team in at least one of the polls and finished second to that team in the conference standings?

Of course, the combined probability of this scenario is about five percent, but at least it gives the playoff lobbyists something to dream about.

More on the Pac-10
So, why is it that Washington, Oregon and Oregon State all need so much help to get into contention? After all, the Pac-10 had a great non-conference record, and three of the eight computers rank it as the top conference in the country.

Most of the problem lies in one category: scoring margin. Because there is so much parity in the Pac-10, a high percentage of conference games are decided by a touchdown or less -- even the games involving the top teams. Thus, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State have had a difficult time keeping up with Miami, Florida State and Florida in the computer ratings.

Want to know what a computer rating would look like if it did not consider scoring margin? Check out the Seattle Times rankings -- the only computer that does not factor in point differential. Washington ranks second, Oregon is fifth and Oregon State is seventh.

For those who are curious, the reason the Pac-10 is rated as the best conference by two of these computers is that they rank the teams independently before figuring conference strength. Therefore, these No. 1 rankings can be attributed just as much to the lack of weakness at the bottom of the conference as they can to the strength of the three teams up top.

Here's some perspective to the perceived gap between the best of the Pac-10 and the best of the rest. If the teams met on a neutral field this weekend, the Dunkel Index would expect BCS No. 3 Florida State to beat BCS No. 5 Washington by 19 points. The same matchup projects to a 13-point difference in the Massey computer.

At-large updates
With the Nebraska loss last weekend, fewer and fewer teams with a big name seem to be attractive as at-large possibilities for the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl and Nokia Sugar Bowl. Notre Dame is looking like the most likely selection if it can win its final two games. Oklahoma would probably be a no-brainer if the Sooners lose the Big 12 Championship Game, but if they don't, Washington and Ohio State (if not in Pasadena) as well as Virginia Tech are still alive.

Brad Edwards is a college football researcher for ESPN and one of the few people who actually understands the BCS. Edwards will provide a weekly analysis of the BCS rankings.