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Hogs too good to be overlooked By Pat Forde Special to ESPN.com |
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Arkansas Razorbacks
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2002 overall record: 9-5 Conference record: 5-3 Returning starters Offense: 9, Defense: 8, Kicker/Punter: 1 2002 statistical leaders (* - returners) Rushing: Fred Talley (1,119 yds) Passing: Matt Jones* (1,592 yds) Receiving: George Wilson* (626 yds) Tackles: Ken Hamlin (159) Sacks: Gavin Walls (6) Interceptions: Lawrence Richardson* & Ken Hamlin (4 each) Outlook: This is the classic Arkansas story: The Razorbacks return 18 starters, including their quarterback. They return three backs who gained 400 or more rushing yards. They return their top three receivers. They return four of their top five tacklers. All from a team that won the West and played in the SEC title game. And they're a preseason midpack pick. "It seems that Arkansas is always picked low," linebacker Caleb Miller said. "I don't quite understand it." Same as it ever was for Houston Nutt, the man whose teams always look like lower-division material to the media and magazines but rarely finish there. Twice in five years under Nutt the Hogs have won the West, and twice finished third. The key to once again exceeding expectations is the quarterback position, where Nutt intends to play option-running Matt Jones and pocket-passing Ryan Sorahan regularly. Jones started all last year and part of his freshman season, but his spotty passing allowed defenses to overload against the run -- especially in embarrassing postseason losses to Georgia and Minnesota. Arkansas produced a measly 135 passing yards per game and converted just a third of its third downs, last in the league in both categories. So Nutt wants to use Sorahan's arm and give Jones some time elsewhere on the field. "When we take the first snap, it'll be Matt Jones," Nutt said. "When he's not at quarterback, he'll be at receiver." Not that the Hogs are starving for skill-position players. They have Cedric Cobbs and D'Arrius Howard -- who have combined for nearly 2,300 career yards -- at tailback. They have lead blocker Mark Pierce (11 career touchdowns) at fullback, returning after leaving the team in July. They have wideout tandem George Wilson and Richard Smith (83 catches, 1,200 yards, 11 TDs last year). And up front they have All-America offensive line candidate Shawn Andrews, who swears he's down from the elephantine 371 pounds he weighed in the spring. Most of an opportunistic defense is back as well, led by linebacker Tony Bua. The pass defense is definitely high-risk/high-reward, recording 19 interceptions last year but allowing a league-high 235 passing yards per game. The big hole to fill is safety Ken Hamlin, who had 159 total tackles and four interceptions last season. Keep an eye on: The turnover ratio. Nothing will make a modestly talented team look better than a big advantage in turnovers. Last year Arkansas led the SEC in that category at a plus-17, which helped create a smoke-and-mirrors effect that became obvious in the season-ending blowout defeats. The Hogs lost a league-low six fumbles in 14 games -- remarkable for a team that ran the ball a league-high 643 times. That's obviously good coaching and attention to fundamentals and detail -- but a little bit of luck usually enters the picture with turnovers as well, and often that luck doesn't carry over from year to year. Key game: In SEC terms, Auburn at Arkansas on Oct. 11 clearly is it -- especially since the Hogs have pounded the preseason league favorites two years in a row. But in terms of emotion and fan interest, the pick is ancient Southwest Conference rival Texas, Sept. 13 in Austin. This will be the 75th meeting of the two but the first regular-season game since 1991, when the SWC was still alive. The 1969 game, a 15-14 classic won by the Horns, was attended by sitting president Richard Nixon. Don't expect Texan George W. or Bill Clinton in the stands in 2003, but everyone else with a tie to either state will be watching intently. It's a good year if. . .: Arkansas has the returning experience to again challenge for the Western Division title -- but it will be difficult. Auburn and LSU look better on paper. Alabama and Ole Miss return about as much talent and could break through. The key to getting to eight or nine wins could a four-week stretch in the middle of the schedule: home against Auburn and Florida, then at Ole Miss and Kentucky. The Hogs likely would need a split, at minimum, to stay in contention to defend their West title down the stretch. Pat Forde covers college football for the Louisville Courier-Journal.
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