CHICAGO -- If admitting that you have a problem is the first step to fixing it, then the Big Ten may be ready to start a climb out of its current downfall.

"Our league wasn't particularly strong last year, we didn't win a lot of bowl games, that's a fact," Wisconsin coach Barry Alvarez said.

Forget about national dominance, the Big Ten hasn't had a consensus final season top-10 team since 1999 and its four combined bowl wins over the past two seasons are the fewest since 1991-92.

"But it's all cyclical," Alvarez said. "Back in '98 and '99 everybody wanted to know what was wrong with the Pac-10. I remember reading articles about all the different reasons why they weren't any good. Then, all of sudden, they're pretty good. Those years we had three teams in the top 10 and they didn't have any."

	“	Two years ago all we talked about was how great the Big Ten was and how it was the strongest conference. Two years later we're all sitting around here moaning about what happened. I don't know if we have a great team in the conference but I think we have a lot of good teams. ”
		— Penn State's Joe Paterno

That part of the cycle is clearly history.

Since the Bowl Championship Series was formed in 1998, only two of the six conferences that make up the BCS have yet to field a representative in the national championship game.

Joining the Big Ten in that dubious distinction is the Pac-10. But at least Oregon can make a strong argument it belonged in last season's title game in Pasadena. The Big Ten might have a hard time convincing anyone it deserved either one of its automatic BCS bids in 2000 and 2001.

Penn State coach Joe Paterno isn't surprised by the current ebb the Big Ten is experiencing -- but he is a little troubled by the conference's current characterization.

"Everything goes in cycles and nobody has any patience," Paterno said. "Two years ago all we talked about was how great the Big Ten was and how it was the strongest conference. Two years later we're all sitting around here moaning about what happened.

"I don't know if we have a great team in the conference but I think we have a lot of good teams."

Leading the way should be a couple of familiar names: Michigan and Ohio State.

The Wolverines are ranked No. 10 in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches' Poll, and they were picked to win the conference by league media members -- in large part because of eight returning defensive starters on a unit that lead the Big Ten and ranked 12th nationally in total defense a year ago.

Even coach Lloyd Carr is admitting his defense looks good. And that's saying a lot considering Michigan took a woodshed beating (45-17) at the hands of Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl.

"Defensively, we'll have probably the most depth and as good of talent up front," Carr said. "And the secondary is probably as solid as we've had, particularly at the safety position."

	Even Lloyd Carr admits Michigan's defense is pretty good.

So while quarterback John Navarre strives for consistency -- not to mention keeping his job -- it will be the likes of Dan Rumishek and Shantee Orr up front, Victor Hobson at linebacker and Charles Drake and Cato June at safety that make the Wolverines the team to beat.

In Columbus, Jim Tressel's offensive backfield is one big question mark. But two-time All-America strong safety Mike Doss and linebacker Matt Wilhelm anchor a defense that returns seven starters and has the Buckeyes at No. 12 as they prepare to face Texas Tech in the Aug. 24 Pigskin Classic.

The rest of the college football world might be in love with one-back, four-receiver sets and the spread attack, but the Big Ten has a dearth of offensive stars on which to hang its hat. That will make defense the order of the day in the conference that made "three yards and a cloud of dust" famous.

Don't buy it?

Even though it ranked in the middle of the pack in most categories, Illinois coach Ron Turner credits a defensive turnaround under first-year coordinator Mike Cassity as a catalyst in the Illini's run to the 2001 Big Ten title.

"It helped to restore our confidence," Turner said. "Our defensive staff did such a great job in getting our kids to believe in themselves, getting our kids to believe in the system and getting our kids to believe that what we're going to do is fun and is going to work.

"You can't win championships without a great defense."

Kirk Ferentz says Iowa's resurrection -- from three wins in 2000 to seven and a bowl victory in 2001 -- is a direct result of the Hawkeyes' move from 10th to second in total defense.

"It's pretty tough to win without a good defense," he said. "If you have a good defense, it really gives you a chance in any ball game. Purdue is a great example. There's been so much focus on their offensive system, which is outstanding, but you look at them defensively and they've been pretty tough"

Since Joe Tiller's arrival in 1997, the Boilermakers have dazzled the Big Ten with their offensive approach, but it's the 15 defensive touchdowns (eight fumbles and seven interceptions) and the 14-0 record when scoring a defensive touchdown in that time period that are equally impressive.

Tiller admits that defenses are starting to catch up with some of his schemes, which may be one of the reasons for the increased emphasis on defense within the conference.

"In the early days people didn't match up very well against our offense," he said. "Now our offense is 15 years older and people have seen it a lot and have a lot of good defensive ideas.

"I don't know, maybe we need to go back to the wishbone."

Nobody said the Big Ten's problems were that bad.

David Albright is a senior editor at ESPN.com and can be reached at david.j.albright@espnpub.com.