The first law of conference expansion has always been to make sure the slices of the financial pie are the same when you serve 12 slices as when you serve nine. While it's nice to have more members, it's not so nice when new members cost the old members money.

That's what has not made sense about the Atlantic Coast Conference's yearning for Miami, Syracuse and Boston College, which it voted Friday to invite. The nine ACC member institutions each received a record $9.7 million -- the most by any conference -- as their most recent annual share of television, marketing, licensing and other commercial revenue. Three new members will mean that nearly $30 million in new revenue must be found to keep the slices of the pie the same size.

Given the current state of the economy and given that television rights fees have been shrinking, not growing, the financial viability of the merger has mystified Big East executives faced with convincing Miami to stay. Executives in the sports television industry and the Bowl Championship Series can't explain the merger's numbers, either.

The ACC hired Dean Bonham, a consultant based in Denver, in 2001 to study the conference's future. The numbers that Bonham developed have convinced the league that expansion is viable. However, no one that I've talked to outside of the ACC's effort to expand believes the merger will create more than $18 million in new revenue. That increase would include rights fees for a 12-team league, a football championship game, and licensing and marketing revenue.

That increase would also translate into shares of about $8.8 million per school, which violates the aforementioned law of conference expansion. It would slice each share by about $1 million per school.

Where does the ACC find the $9 million to $12 million in additional money just to remain in place? The ACC must believe that, as it expands and the Big East contracts, it will be so attractive that multiple networks will bid up the price of its television rights. The attraction would be the addition of the Miami, Boston and upstate New York markets, as well as the addition of the Hurricanes program.

If the ACC making a beeline for a 12-team future, it is taking a significant gamble on its own remade looks, as well as on the future of sports on television. The trend in rights fees has been downward. In addition, the inventory of a new ACC carries no new marquee regular-season games. Miami and Florida State already play every year.

Another possible source of revenue for the expanded ACC is the $4.5 million that a BCS conference gets for having a second team receive an invitation to a BCS bowl. If the Big East As We Know It ceases to exist, it's a safe bet that the BCS will take away an automatic bid from the remaining teams. Instead of having six BCS leagues (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pacific-10, Southeastern) fighting for two at-large bids, five would be fighting for three.

The ACC, which has never received a second BCS bid -- even when North Carolina went 10-1 in 1997-98 -- would have a much better opportunity to gain that extra $4.5 million. For instance, if Florida State and Miami are in the same division of an expanded ACC, one of them will not be playing in the ACC championship game. No sweat -- Nebraska made it to the Rose Bowl two years ago without playing in the Big 12 championship game.

Above even the money, however, the ACC is betting on expansion as a way to protect itself in the future. Any conference that is worried about being raided by another league can defend itself by raiding someone else first. The ACC, with nine teams, is smaller than its neighbor to the south, the SEC, but larger than its neighbor to the north, the Big East. The belief that there is strength in numbers might make the ACC members swallow and accept a significant cut in league revenue per school.

As a rule, university presidents don't adapt changes that bring in less athletic money.

The ACC has maintained a presence among the football powers ever since Florida State joined the conference in 1991 and played its first season in '92. However, with Florida State having dropped a notch over the last two seasons, no one in the ACC has stepped up to become a national championship contender. Acquiring Miami to solve that problem might be the safest gamble of them all.

Ivan Maisel is a senior writer at ESPN.com. He can be reached at ivan.maisel@espn3.com.