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Thursday, November 14
Updated: November 16, 12:20 PM ET
 
Georgia on the verge of history

By Kirk Herbstreit
Special to ESPN.com

Georgia is in a must-win situation this week at Auburn. With a victory the Bulldogs will clinch their first-ever SEC East title and head to the championship game in Atlanta, and to do that they will once again have to overcome injuries in the passing game.

Wide receiver Damien Gary is out for the season with a leg injury, Fred Gibson should play but is still ailing from a thumb injury and now Terrence Edwards is down with a sprained shoulder..

As a result, Georgia is going to have to rely more on Musa Smith and the running game this week. This matchup has historically gone to the team that has run the ball better and that should be true again this year. The problem for UGA will be having enough of a passing threat to make the Tigers' defense respect that part of the offense, thereby opening up the running game.

Auburn is also without a star, running back Cadillac Williams, but Ronnie Brown has filled in nicely with picked up the slack with 523 yards in the last four games.

Michael Johnson and Reggie Brown will be asked to pick up the slack at wideout, and keep an eye on how Mark Richt handles the quarterback situation. It seemed that David Greene played his best football after the injury to D.J Shockley ended the shuffling at that position, but since Shockley has been back in the mix in the last few weeks the rhythm of the offense has been inconsistent.

With all the injuries at receiver, will this be a game where Richt decides to stick with Greene or will he need the mobility an athleticism of Shockley?

It is going to be tough sledding for the 'Dawgs against the Auburn defense unless they can throw. The Tigers' linebacking trio of Mark Brown, Karlos Dansby and Dontarrious Thomas is as athletic and gifted as any in the SEC, and if they don't have to worry about a legitimate passing attack from Georgia it will allow them to pin their ears back and focus on Musa Smith.

Playing at Jordan-Hare Stadium without a legit Georgia passing game and the Auburn defense combined with the running of Ronnie Brown will lead the Tigers to an upset of Georgia.

Alabama vs. No. 12 LSU
Two of the best defenses in the country collide in this matchup in Baton Rouge. Any time LSU plays at home at night it equals about a seven-point, but the Tigers to beat Alabama they will have to play a perfect game on offense. Which means quarterback Marcus Randall will need to throw the ball well.

'Bama has proven it is nearly impossible to run against, and one of the only ways teams can move the ball is to have a good passing attack. Although the Tigers have great receivers Randall's inexperience could be costly.

Crimson Tide quarterback Tyler Watts has played well as the team has thrown for 515 yards and four touchdowns in the last two games, and Triandos Luke has been his go to guy in those games with 16 catches for 230 yards.

With the way the 'Bama defense is playing, holding opponents to 225 yards or less in each of the last four games, and the way Watts is coming on, I like Alabama to go on the road and surprise the Tigers.

South Carolina vs. No. 14 Florida
Should Auburn will upset Georgia, can you imagine the jolt of energy the Florida players will get when they hear the PA announcer give that score?

That would put the Gators back in control of the SEC East, and if it happens the Gators will be playing with enthusiasm and a huge second half will lead them to a big win over South Carolina.

No. 5 Iowa vs. Minnesota
Iowa is one game away from an undefeated Big Ten season and the only thing standing in the way is the battle with Minnesota for the Floyd of Rosedale trophy. This is one of those rivalry games that is always a lot tougher than most fans think.

On paper this looks like an easy victory for the Hawkeyes, but because it is being played in front of a rare sellout crowd at the Metrodome, and because the rivalry is so historic, the Gophers could make this a tight ballgame if they stay in it early.

For that to happen Minnesota is going to have to regroup in a hurry after starting the year 7-1, and then being outscored 75-27 and outgained 800-446 by Ohio State and Michigan. All of a sudden the Gophers' once-feared running attack has been exposed by strong teams. And now they face Iowa's league-leading rush defense.

For Minnesota to have any chance, Asad Abdul-Khaliq has got to be able to give them some threat of a passing game to get Iowa's defense off-balance, because the Hawkeyes have proven all year that when they attack the line of scrimmage no one can run on them. Abdul-Khaliq has managed just 240 passing yards in the last two games and if that continues this will be an ugly game.

On the other side, the Gophers are going to have to defend the most explosive attack in the Big Ten. Brad Banks will call the shots and has weapons all over the field in receivers Maurice Brown, C.J. Jones, Ed Hinkel, tight end Dallas Clark and the running of Fred Russell. Minnesota's only chance of slowing it down is to ride the emotional wave of playing in a rivalry game at home.

Iowa wins this game, but it has to be careful because emotion could keep the game a lot closer than most people think.

No. 2 Ohio State vs. Illinois
Ohio State has proven over the course of the year that any game away from Ohio Stadium is an interesting challenge no matter who it is playing. The Buckeyes' four closest games this year have all come on the road and they have needed big plays late in the game to salvage victories. Until they prove they can play well away from home you have to consider the potential for an upset on the road.

That has more to to with the offense than the defense, because the defense has been consistent all year and along with the special teams allowed them to win the close ones on the road. The question is whether the offense can figure out ways to score points. In the seven home games OSU has played it is averaging 38 points per game but just 19 points in four road games.

The Illinois defense has given up a lot of yards this year but it will do what every other team has done: put eight or nine guys on the line of scrimmage to take away the running game and try to force Ohio State to execute the passing game to win.

Ohio State has to avoid the trap most undefeated teams fall into late in the year, which is playing too conservative on offense, especially with a great defense that can win games. There is a tendency to play not to lose on offense, playing the field position game and letting the defense win it.

It has worked up to this point for Ohio State, but rather than continuing to live on the edge OSU needs to give the offense a chance to execute by throwing the ball more, especially on first and ten.

First, the line has to protect Krenzel. Second, Krenzel and the wideouts have to beat man-to-man coverage with big plays to soften the defense. If that happens the Buckeyes will then go back to their bread-and-butter in the running game.

Maurice Clarett is going to try and start but is still dinged up with a shoulder injury it would be a shock if he lasts four quarters. This game should be similar to the one at Purdue, where he gives it a try and then we see a lot of Maurice Hall and Lydell Ross.

Ohio State's defense should create some turnovers and give the offense a short field, and after hearing a week of criticism the offense will open things up and take chances down field. The Buckeyes will surprise some people with a big win on the road in Champaign.

Nebraska vs. No. 11 Kansas State
Nebraska has shown a lot of character this year by continuing to play hard give great effort every week. Frank Solich has done a nice job of making some adjustments, and Jammal Lord recording over 1,000 yards passing and rushing is a good indicator that while Nebraska has remained an option team it has mixed in enough play-action passing to make it tough for teams to stack the line and defend the run exclusively.

That will have to continue this week and the Cornhuskers need two things to happen to pull it off: they have to get that play-action game going to prevent KSU from loading up on Dahrran Diedrick and David Horne, and most importantly they have to protect the ball.

Teams can go from being in a competitive game to being down by three touchdowns in a hurry by turning the ball over in Manhattan, because both the defense and the crowd feed off of that energy.

On the other side it is a matter of the Nebraska defense containing a heck of a tandem in quarterback Ell Roberson and running back Darren Sproles. Nebraska usually has the edge in that department, but with Roberson's ability to make plays running the ball and Sproles' electrifying speed Kansas State has the advantage this year.

The big play ability of those two will be tough to stop, and Jason Terry and Taco Wallace will come up with some big plays against man coverage. Look for Roberson to make plays both running and passing.

The key to the game is that Nebraska will stack the line early in the game to take away the dynamic duo. Kansas State offensive coordinator Ron Hudson will have to try and go to the air to exploit that, and Roberson throwing the ball for big plays will be crucial for K-State. After the 'Cats hit a few of those we'll see a combination of the passing game and big plays for he and Sproles in the option game.

The passing and running of Roberson and playing in Manhattan will lead Kansas State to a competitive, hard-fought win over Nebraska.

No. 3 Texas vs. Texas Tech
It is always a difficult game for Texas when it goes to Lubbock to face the Red Raiders. The Longhorns have to deal with taking every team's best shot on weekly basis, and Texas Tech's best shot could make this a very good game.

Kliff Kingsbury has thrown for 3,982 yards and 35 touchdowns this year will put up big numbers in this game because of the style of the offense. But to get the most important number -- a win -- he has to be able to execute in the red zone.

The Raiders will move the ball effectively, but once they get inside the 20 the question is whether they will be able to put up touchdowns or field goals. That will determine whether this is a close game or not.

Because of the lack of a physical running game in the Tech's spread offense, it will not score touchdowns in the red zone against Texas. The Raiders will have to settle for field goals while Chris Simms and the Texas offense are scoring touchdowns.

Look for a close game in the first half, but as it gets into the second half the ability of the Texas defense to make stops in the red zone and the combination of Simms and running back Cedric Benson will eventually allow the 'Horns to pull away in the second half.

Iowa State vs. No. 18 Colorado
After starting the season so well and with so much promise, Iowa State has struggled against the better teams in the conference. Having one of the toughest schedules in the country has caught up to them, going to places like Norman, Austin and Manhattan.

And now they finish running the gauntlet in Boulder against a Colorado team that is looking to secure a spot in the Big 12 championship game. Come on! How much can one team take?

Unfortunately for Iowa State, they are playing the most physical of those teams at the end of that stretch. We are going to see a lot of Chris Brown running right, running left and running over the Cyclone defense for close to 200 yards.

The only way Iowa Sate has a chance is if Seneca Wallace has one of those games where everything clicks and ISU tries to score with Colorado, because the Cyclones are not going to stop Brown and the CU offense at all.

Colorado wins and secures the Big 12 North title.

Kirk Herbstreit is an analyst on ESPN College GameDay.







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