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Thursday, October 17
Updated: October 18, 11:36 AM ET
 
Oklahoma will avoid the Red River letdown

By Kirk Herbstreit
Special to ESPN.com

Plenty of teams are coming off big games last week and plenty of fans are wondering who will bounce back and who will have a letdown. Read on to find out.

No. 13 Iowa State vs. No. 2 Oklahoma
The big question this week for Oklahoma is whether the Sooners can contain Iowa State quarterback Seneca Wallace. In the past, OU has had trouble defending athletic quarterbacks like Missouri's Brad Smith, who had 391 yards of total offense against Oklahoma two weeks ago, and Kansas State's Ell Roberson, who had 372 total yards against OU last year.

Now the Sooners get to go up against a guy whose athletic ability and strong arm reminds OU co-defensive coordinator Mike Stoops of former K-State quarterback Michael Bishop.

Stoops said the Sooners weren't going to add any wrinkles for this week. "We're just going to play our game," he said. "We'll try to be sure tacklers, get after Wallace with pressure and not allow him to get to the outside where he could really hurt us."

Stoops compared it to defending Michael Jordan, when you know he is going to get his points and you just try not to let the other guys on the floor beat you.

"To defend Seneca Wallace," Stoops said, "we have to do a good job of making plays on the other guys. When he breaks contain and starts to scramble, he is looking to throw."

OU has to lock up the ISU wide receivers, not allow them to get the big play downfield and hope the speed of the defense can get to Wallace before he can get the ball away.

Oklahoma had a lot of success running the ball last week thanks to a new wrinkle implemented by offensive coordinator Chuck Long and running backs coach Kevin Wilson. They moved the tight end to the left side and ran the lead draw to that side with Quentin Griffin. As the year goes on, look for the Sooners to add more wrinkles that go against their tendencies.

While everyone gets caught up with the talk about Wallace, Iowa State's defense is also pretty good. The Cyclones will try to stop Griffin with linebackers Jeremy Loyd, Matt Word and Brandon Brown. If the linebackers contain Griffin, the Cyclones can force Oklahoma into sure passing situations -- where the Sooners have not had a lot of success.

OU quarterback Nat Hybl has not looked confident in third-down situations this year, so Iowa State's goal is to get him into third-and-long and come after him with pressure. There are a lot of guys who can run on that defense and Tyson Smith is a guy to watch coming off the edge.

I think the nation will see on Saturday that ISU is more than Seneca Wallace. The Cyclones are athletic and have a good defense. The big thing people are asking this week is whether Oklahoma can get back up after the big win over Texas. The Sooners have been here before, and I don't think they'll have a hard time getting ready to play Iowa State.

The toughest thing for the coaches will be getting the Sooner players to realize that ISU is a quality opponent. Those players grew up watching Iowa State as a perennial cellar dweller in the Big Eight and now the Big 12. All of a sudden, the Cyclones are one of the better teams in the conference. So OU has to make sure it respects ISU and that the Sooners bring their A game.

I think facing the Heisman Trophy front-runner will get their attention and I expect Oklahoma to win a close game, 31-24.

Upset Specials
Minnesota over Michigan State
The running of Terry Jackson and Thomas Tapeh coupled with the athleticism of Asad Abdul-Khaliq will lead the Gophers to an upset in East Lansing

Washington over USC
Pickett to Williams will be the main ingredient in a Huskies upset in the Coliseum.

Notre Dame and Air Force
Notre Dame is a three-point underdog in this game, but we'll see about that. Be sure to watch GameDay for my pick.

No. 8 Texas vs. No. 19 Kansas State
Texas is reeling right now and there has been a lot of criticism of offensive coordinator Greg Davis and quarterback Chis Simms for the lack of ability to win the big game. I'm sure the Longhorns are anxious to get back on the field, but Manhattan, Kansas at night is one of the tougher places in the conference to play and it's a tough place to regain your confidence.

This group of Texas players has never been in that environment. It is a circus and a very tough place to play when Kansas State has a good team -- like it does this year.

That being said, I look for Simms to have a chance to make some plays down the field. The Wildcats play a ton of man-to-man coverage, so the big key for the Longhorns will be protecting Simms and giving him time to throw. If they do that, look for Roy Williams, B.J. Johnson and Sloan Thomas to make some plays in the passing game.

The Texas offense will score some points, but what will get the Longhorns in trouble is that they also play a lot of man coverage on defense. Ell Roberson is the X-factor in this game because of his ability to run the option, get to the outside and pitch the ball to Darren Sproles. K-State will pick up some yards against man coverage, and then the Wildcats will sprinkle in some play-action passes to get the ball out to Jason Terry and Taco Wallace.

Kansas State will win a high-scoring game, 34-30.

No. 4 Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin has lost two straight games in the Big Ten and has its back against the wall in a must-win situation. I expect the Badgers to come out fired up and ready to play.

Two weeks ago they lost a hard-fought game at home against Penn State and last week they were embarrassed on the road by a late Indiana comeback. They are looking to redeem themselves. A lot of fans across the country are anxious to see if Ohio State is a legitimate top five team and national contender -- we will all find out this week.

For OSU the game is all about how the Buckeyes protect quarterback Craig Krenzel. If teams continue to load up the line of scrimmage against Maurice Clarett and his 6.5 yards-per-carry average, the onus will be on the passing game. This is especially true of the offensive line, because if it can give Krenzel time he is accurate (62.2 completion percentage), and Michael Jenkins, Chris Gamble and Chris Vance are talented receivers with the ability to go the distance.

This is the week we find out if the Buckeyes are contenders or pretenders. There have been a lot of distractions this week, including a cover story in ESPN The Magazine about Clarett and his possible decision to leave school for the draft after just one season. I think that adds more fuel to the fire for the Wisconsin defense.

They're probably sitting back thinking "Who is this prima donna, already contemplating coming out early after playing just six college football games?" I think that ups the ante for the Badgers' defense, and I also think they will handle Clarett.

If Ohio State wins, it will be because of the passing game. Wisconsin gave up 331 passing yards last week against Indiana, including three touchdown passes in the final 16 minutes.

Ohio State fans should be concerned about this game in Madison because the Badgers need a win to stay in the conference race. Brooks Bollinger has also played very well against OSU in the past and how the OSU pressure defense contains him will be something to watch. The combination of Bollinger throwing and Anthony Davis running gave the Buckeyes fits last year.

I think Ohio State finds a way to win with turnovers on defense, the passing game taking the pressure off Clarett, and a late Mike Nugent field goal providing the winning margin in a 27-24 dogfight.

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 15 Air Force
This is a very intriguing game. A lot of people look at Air Force and wonder just how good the Falcons really are. This is a good chance for them to showcase their talents on national television against a good Notre Dame team.

Chance Harridge is one of the better quarterbacks to come through the Air Force Academy in recent years, particularly at running the sophisticated triple option. His quickness and guts are what allow him to take the kinds of chances he does. And to run that offense, you need that kind of attitude. Harridge also has a good enough arm that if teams load up to take away the option he can make them pay with the play-action pass.

But because the Notre Dame defense is so disciplined and the front seven is so talented, I think the option will only take Air Force so far. Eventually the Falcons are going to have to implement play action more against the Irish than in weeks past.

This is an Air Force rushing attack that averages better than five yards per carry and leads the nation with 339.2 yards per game on the ground but averages just 75.2 passing yards per game. The Falcons will have to throw the ball against that good ND front seven.

But keep an eye on AFA running back Leotis Palmer and his 6.8 ypc average because Harridge will get most of Notre Dame's attention and Palmer could make a difference.The best defense for Air Force might be its offense, eating up the clock and keeping the ball away from the Irish.

Even though the Irish offense has struggled to find continuity, this is a game where it should be able to run the football because of the size advantage Notre Dame has at the line of scrimmage. Despite being undersized, the Falcons are tenacious on defense, and linebacker Anthony Schlegel can fly in a scheme that allows him to make some plays.

Air Force is also much more athletic than it has been in the past, proven by the fact that the Falcons stuffed BYU last week for minus-21 yards rushing. The Falcons have a lot of guys who can fly around, and they are going to make it tough for quarterback Carlyle Holiday and running back Ryan Grant.

Both teams are known for their ability to run the ball, but the ability of one team or the other to throw the ball could be a big factor. And I'm not talking about a lot of throwing, but rather which team can make one or two big plays through the air. This will be a tight game and I'll give you my pick on GameDay.

No. 17 Washington vs. No. 20 USC
This is a battle between two quarterbacks who have had great individual years. Washington's Cody Pickett ranks second in the nation in total offense (369.5 ypg) and 11th in passing efficiency (152.1), while USC's Carson Palmer is averaging nearly 24 completions per game and completing nearly 61 percent of his passes.

Both also have a lot of talent to throw the ball to. The Huskies' Reggie Williams had a big game against Arizona last week with eight catches for 184 yards and three touchdowns and might be the best receiver in the Pac-10. Charles Frederick is a dangerous second option. The Trojans have Kareem Kelly and Mike Williams, who may be the best true freshman in the conference with 28 catches for 434 yards and four TDs.

The difference between these teams has been USC's running threat with Sultan McCullough, and an inability to run the ball has been one of the things that has hurt Washington. The Huskies need to find a running game to stop defenses from loading up to stop Pickett. Rick Neuheisel is no doubt making a point to his players that they have to have a number of ways to attack USC. That is something to watch in this game, whether UW can get the running game going and give the offense some balance.

USC enjoyed a lot of success early in the year on defense, but the last two games against Washington State and California exposed some ways that teams can attack them. Southern Cal has given up 536 passing yards and four touchdowns in the last two games after leading the nation in pass defense earlier this season.

Although Neuheisel talks about a balanced offense, he really wants just enough of a running game to keep the Trojans off balance. The Huskies will attack predominantly through the air because that is where SC has been vulnerable the last couple of weeks.

This game will have a lot offense and I think Washington will make the plays it has to down the stretch. Pickett and Williams will outduel Palmer and Kelly and UW will outscore USC by a 34-27 count.

No. 24 Florida vs. Auburn
This game is why head coaches tell me all the time not to get into coaching. Both teams are in dire straits and desperate for a victory, and the loser will have to face all kinds of speculation about his job security.

Florida not only has problems running the offense, but there may also be problems internally with Rex Grossman and the coaching staff. How that is handled should be something interesting to watch during the game.

I expect the Gators to get back to the basics with Earnest Graham, Ray Carthon and the running game against an Auburn defense that gave up 418 rushing yards to Arkansas last week. Florida has had trouble protecting Grossman this year and the Tigers do a nice job of pressuring quarterbacks, but because of that pressure they are vulnerable against the run.

Auburn's offense is all about running back Carnell Williams, and even though Florida has struggled as a team in recent weeks the defense is about the only part of the team that has played well at times. Because the Tigers are so one-dimensional, defensive coordinator John Thompson will turn the Gators loose on Williams and force Daniel Cobb to throw the ball to win the game.

Florida wins 24-20 with defense and the running game.

No. 9 Michigan vs. Purdue
Michigan's pass defense was better against Penn State last week and will have to step up again this week. John Navarre will have to continue playing with confidence and have balance in the offense with Chris Perry running the ball. I predict a 31-23 Michigan victory.

No. 22 Mississippi vs. Alabama
Ole Miss QB Eli Manning might be the most accurate passer in college football, and it will be important for the Alabama front to get pressure on him to help the cornerbacks. There is some talk about Tyler Watts coming back to spell Brodie Croyle at quarterback for Alabama, but the difference will be the ability to get to Manning and create turnovers. The Tide will also have to get the ball to Shaud Williams, the only legit threat on the Alabama offense. 'Bama wins a close one, 20-16.

Kirk Herbstreit is an analyst on ESPN College GameDay.







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