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Friday, October 4
 
Sometimes it's painful to make these picks

By Kirk Herbstreit
Special to ESPN.com

Last week, it was a bit of a light schedule. This week is different. There are a bunch of good games to watch this weekend. So, while we offer no upset specials -- there really wasn't anything that jumped out at me -- here's a look at some of Saturday's best games.

No. 20 USC vs. No. 17 Washington State
Jason Gesser
QB Jason Gesser faces a tough test from the No. 1-ranked USC defense.
This may be the best game of the day. I said it earlier in the season and I'll say it again now -- this looks like a new USC team. The Trojans have always had a lot of talent, but this year they seem to have the moxie to go along with it. I needed to see them play some quality competition before I completely believed, but after watching them play Auburn, Oregon State, K-State and Colorado (the last two on the road), it's obvious this is a different USC team. I'm convinced it has a new intensity and the Trojans will need to maintain that intensity on the road in Pullman against Jason Gesser and the Cougars.

USC is No. 1 in total defense giving up just 205 yards per game and, as noted earlier, this was done against four good opponents. The key for the Trojans has been a dominating front four. Kenechi Udeze (6-foot-4, 280), Mike Patterson (6-0, 285), Shaun Cody (6-4, 275) and Omar Nazel (6-5, 240) have allowed the Trojans to play a little more conservative with its young secondary. USC has 13 sacks and this allows it to sit back, play zone, keep everything in front of them and just be solid tackling. Facing a similar scheme to last week, when they shut out Oregon State, the Trojans will need to get pressure on Gesser. The Cougars offensive line is better than Oregon State's and Gesser is a little more creative than Beavers' QB Derek Anderson, so it will be a tougher test.

Offensively, the running game of Sultan McCullough and the possession passing game led by QB Carson Palmer has been a pretty lethal combination. This will again be a tough road test, but it's not anything new for the Trojans this year.

This one hurts. Cougs, you know I love you, but look for USC with this new confidence to get them through a hard-fought game in Pullman. USC in a close one.

No. 16 Kansas State at Colorado
This is the last big road obstacle before the schedule becomes friendly for Kansas State. While there are still plenty of tough games remaining, Texas, Iowa State and Nebraska all visit Manhattan.

Ell Roberson being inserted back in the lineup is the key to the Kansas State. You combine his athletic ability under center and his creativity scrambling and in the option game with the quickness of RB Darren Sproles, who is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and this is a very dangerous offense. The key for Roberson to have a successful game -- and season -- is allowing himself to go out, play free and let his athletic ability loose while, at the same time, not making silly mistakes. If he can avoid the mistakes, any team the Wildcats play will have a tough time stopping this offense. I look for Roberson to get outside either on the option or scrambling and get big yards running the ball.

A big key to this game will be Colorado's ability to run the football against a fierce Wildcat front seven. QB Robert Hodge has shown his limitations in the passing game, forcing the run-oriented Buffs to become even more one-dimensional. Although CU is very physical and has a deep stable of backs, it's tough to run the football without the threat of a passing game. Don't believe me? Just ask Nebraska. Who wins the battle between Terry Pierce and the K-State front seven and Chris Brown and the CU rushing attack will tell you if the Buffs will have any success on offense.

I like K-State to win in an environment they have not had a lot of success. The Wildcats are just 4-23 in Folsom Field, but they have won the last two meetings in Boulder and five of the last six games in the series. Look for K-State's front seven to stop the CU running game and Roberson and Sproles to provide big plays offensively.

No. 6 Georgia at Alabama
Alabama really impresses me with the resiliency they've shown as a team. I think when you're able to face adversity like they have -- the probation and injuries -- and come through it positively, it brings a team together and develops character. That's what's happened with Bama. It is a very united team, not to mention a very talented one. The Crimson Tide D-line -- Antwan Odom (6-5, 273), Jarret Johnson (6-4, 287), Kenny King (6-3, 280) and Kindal Moorehead (6-4, 294) -- is the strength of a defense that already has 15 sacks and allows an average of 233 yards per game. I'd put the Tide's D-line with anyone in the country. They're that good.

Mark Richt will run shotgun with QB David Greene to try to help against the pressure. And even though Greene has great receivers in Terrence Edwards, Fred Gibson and Damien Gary, the Bulldogs have to get production from the running game. Musa Smith has to get some yards to slow down this aggressive Bama pass rush. If not, the Tide will be very creative in the ways they put pressure on Greene.

On the Bama side, watch for QB Brodie Croyle to fill in for the injured Tyler Watts. Croyle came of age last week on the road in Arkansas in his first collegiate start. The game plan initially was conservative, but you could see it open up as the night went on and more they piled on Croyle, the more he produced. It was obvious he was well prepared and he executed flawlessly. I'm really impressed with his arm strength and his poise. Now he comes home and faces another great defense in Georgia. It will be interesting to see if he can get the ball downfield.

As for my pick, well, tune into College GameDay Saturday morning to find out.

Stanford at No. 9 Notre Dame
Carlyle Holiday
Carlyle Holiday is questionable heading into Saturday's game against Stanford.
Can the Irish magic continue against Tyrone Willingham's former team? Notre Dame now finds itself in a position where it is the hunted instead of the hunter and that's a very different position to be in. In the first four games, many people -- including myself -- wondered if they could compete. With wins over Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State and Maryland, it's obvious they can. But now, teams are going to be coming after them. The Irish will no longer sneak up on people. It's a different kind of pressure when you're the favorite and don't have that underdog mentality. I'm anxious to see how they play.

The health of QB Carlyle Holiday is an issue. I expect him to play, but how much and how effectively remains to be seen. The Stanford defense is very vulnerable through the air and if Holiday comes back, expect him to have a big day. This might be the day the ND offense gets rolling and puts up some big numbers.

For Stanford, its only hope is to put some points on the board against the opportunistic Irish defense. The Cardinal need to move the ball to make this a game.

I said it two weeks ago after two Michigan State defenders ran into each other that I'll never pick against Notre Dame. The luck of the Irish will find a way to once again win another football game.

UCLA at Oregon State
Oregon State has its tail between its legs after the smacking it took from USC. At least they get to come home this week. The big issue is QB Derek Anderson and the Oregon State offense. The Beavers O-line was abused last week. It has to come back and do what it did in the first four games when the Beavers were averaging nearly 50 points a game. They have plenty of balance with Anderson, RB Steven Jackson and the receivers, but if the O-line doesn't play better against UCLA, the players at the skill positions can't do their job. The key will be how Oregon State responds after an embarrassing loss on the road to USC. I think they'll be anxious to get on the field and show its a better team than it demonstrated against the Trojans.

As for UCLA, it's another one of those Bruins teams you just can't figure out. One week, they look talented and physically tough. The next week Chris Brown runs for 188 yards and 3 TDs against them. QB Cory Paus is having a good year (a QB rating of 133) and it will be interesting to watch Paus and his receivers attack an Oregon State defense that I still consider to be a pretty good unit.

I think the Beavers will slow Paus and Co. down. Oregon State is back home with an anxious attitude to redeem itself and will roll to a solid victory over UCLA.

No. 7 Oregon at Arizona
One of the reasons I picked the Ducks in the preseason to win the Pac-10 is the offensive system Mike Bellotti and Co. have been able to build over the years in Eugene. Despite the graduation of great players, they keep making the system work. Through the first four games, Jason Fife has demonstrated the ability to keep the offense rolling. He's thrown for 880 yards and 8 TDs, but keep an eye on him this week. It's his first Pac-10 road game as a starter. Even though the Arizona D is banged up and it's not the most hostile road trip he'll face this season, he still has to show he can handle the conditions.

Look for Oregon to try to pick on the Arizona secondary. One of the best ways to get a young QB to settle down is to be aggressive in the play calling and show you have confidence in him. I like Oregon to come out and make a statement and put up a lot of points against Arizona.

No. 21 Penn State at No. 15 Wisconsin
This is Penn State's first road game and the matchup I'm looking forward to is the Nittany Lions offense led by QB Zack Mills against the surprisingly athletic Wisconsin defense. The Badgers knew it would have a very good offense with a big O-line, the Big Ten's leading rusher in Anthony Davis and a four-year starter in Brooks Bollinger returning, but I think they surprised even themselves with how quickly their young players have stepped up on defense. I talked with coach Barry Alvarez and he said this might be his fastest defense since he's been in Madison. They lead the nation in turnover margin, but can they continue this trend against Mills and Penn State?

Also watch the return of Lee Evans. He practiced this week, looked good and what a game to come back to against the Penn State secondary. I think he'll play, but how much depends on how he feels, but Brooks Bollinger to Lee Evans has the chance to be a lethal combination this weekend.

With the offense clicking behind Davis, Bollinger and Evans and the crowd creating an electric atmosphere sparking the defense to fly around, I think Wisconsin wins here and shows it's a legitimate threat to compete for the Big Ten championship.

Arkansas at No. 10 Tennessee
Tennessee came into the season expecting to have a dominating offense led by a fierce running game, but after four games, the Vols are 80th in the nation, averaging 129.5 yards per game. You can't point fingers at any one aspect of the running game. I think it's a combination of not having an aggressive mentality from the line and the backs and they need more productivity from the passing game to give them balance.

You have to believe after the performances against Florida and Rutgers (they were losing at halftime to Rutgers!) that the Vols will come back with week with a different mindset and realize it's time to get after it. The ability is there, they just need to go out and make plays. The Vols almost look timid. Arkansas is vulnerable to the big plays and this is a chance to Tennessee to get on track playing at home. It will be interesting to see if the Tennessee offense becomes more aggressive in all aspects of the game.

On defense, depth is becoming a real concern for the Vols with all the injuries they've suffered. With Arkansas, you have to do two things -- contain Cedric Cobbs and the running game and corral the multi-talented Matt Jones. If the Vols take away the running game and put Jones in obvious passing situations, the Hogs are in trouble on offense.

I expect Tennessee to come back from a couple of bad performances and play lights out in Neyland Stadium.

The Stay Focused Games
Everyone is talking about the Texas-Oklahoma matchup on Oct. 12. The catch is, both the Longhorns and Sooners have a game this weekend. If they are looking ahead, an upset isn't out of the question and then Oct. 12 wouldn't matter.

Texas has played extraordinary defense this year, but it hasn't really been tested either. The 'Horns expect Nathan Vasher back this weekend, which will make it an interesting matchup against arguably the Big 12's best receiver in Rashaun Woods.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma may have the tougher test by traveling to Missouri. The Sooners offense continues to struggle and the revamped running game -- if you take the Tulane opener out of the question -- has been nonexistent. The Sooners need to get its offense in order. This could be one of those games where the Sooners may need to rely on their defense to just shut down Missouri and Brad Smith. But it won't be easy. This could make the Tigers' year. It will be rocking in Missouri with its fans thinking it has a chance led by Smith. And remember last year when Oklahoma State caught OU flat and knocked them off, basically ending the Sooners' title hopes.

For both games, this isn't about Xs and Os. This is about staying focused. If either team looks ahead to Oct. 12 and the Red River Rivalry, they may not make it past this week undefeated.

Kirk Herbstreit is an analyst on ESPN College GameDay.









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