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| Friday, October 4 Sometimes it's painful to make these picks By Kirk Herbstreit Special to ESPN.com |
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Last week, it was a bit of a light schedule. This week is different. There are a bunch of good games to watch this weekend. So, while we offer no upset specials -- there really wasn't anything that jumped out at me -- here's a look at some of Saturday's best games.
No. 20 USC vs. No. 17 Washington State
USC is No. 1 in total defense giving up just 205 yards per game and, as noted earlier, this was done against four good opponents. The key for the Trojans has been a dominating front four. Kenechi Udeze (6-foot-4, 280), Mike Patterson (6-0, 285), Shaun Cody (6-4, 275) and Omar Nazel (6-5, 240) have allowed the Trojans to play a little more conservative with its young secondary. USC has 13 sacks and this allows it to sit back, play zone, keep everything in front of them and just be solid tackling. Facing a similar scheme to last week, when they shut out Oregon State, the Trojans will need to get pressure on Gesser. The Cougars offensive line is better than Oregon State's and Gesser is a little more creative than Beavers' QB Derek Anderson, so it will be a tougher test. Offensively, the running game of Sultan McCullough and the possession passing game led by QB Carson Palmer has been a pretty lethal combination. This will again be a tough road test, but it's not anything new for the Trojans this year. This one hurts. Cougs, you know I love you, but look for USC with this new confidence to get them through a hard-fought game in Pullman. USC in a close one.
No. 16 Kansas State at Colorado Ell Roberson being inserted back in the lineup is the key to the Kansas State. You combine his athletic ability under center and his creativity scrambling and in the option game with the quickness of RB Darren Sproles, who is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and this is a very dangerous offense. The key for Roberson to have a successful game -- and season -- is allowing himself to go out, play free and let his athletic ability loose while, at the same time, not making silly mistakes. If he can avoid the mistakes, any team the Wildcats play will have a tough time stopping this offense. I look for Roberson to get outside either on the option or scrambling and get big yards running the ball. A big key to this game will be Colorado's ability to run the football against a fierce Wildcat front seven. QB Robert Hodge has shown his limitations in the passing game, forcing the run-oriented Buffs to become even more one-dimensional. Although CU is very physical and has a deep stable of backs, it's tough to run the football without the threat of a passing game. Don't believe me? Just ask Nebraska. Who wins the battle between Terry Pierce and the K-State front seven and Chris Brown and the CU rushing attack will tell you if the Buffs will have any success on offense. I like K-State to win in an environment they have not had a lot of success. The Wildcats are just 4-23 in Folsom Field, but they have won the last two meetings in Boulder and five of the last six games in the series. Look for K-State's front seven to stop the CU running game and Roberson and Sproles to provide big plays offensively.
No. 6 Georgia at Alabama Mark Richt will run shotgun with QB David Greene to try to help against the pressure. And even though Greene has great receivers in Terrence Edwards, Fred Gibson and Damien Gary, the Bulldogs have to get production from the running game. Musa Smith has to get some yards to slow down this aggressive Bama pass rush. If not, the Tide will be very creative in the ways they put pressure on Greene. On the Bama side, watch for QB Brodie Croyle to fill in for the injured Tyler Watts. Croyle came of age last week on the road in Arkansas in his first collegiate start. The game plan initially was conservative, but you could see it open up as the night went on and more they piled on Croyle, the more he produced. It was obvious he was well prepared and he executed flawlessly. I'm really impressed with his arm strength and his poise. Now he comes home and faces another great defense in Georgia. It will be interesting to see if he can get the ball downfield. As for my pick, well, tune into College GameDay Saturday morning to find out.
Stanford at No. 9 Notre Dame
The health of QB Carlyle Holiday is an issue. I expect him to play, but how much and how effectively remains to be seen. The Stanford defense is very vulnerable through the air and if Holiday comes back, expect him to have a big day. This might be the day the ND offense gets rolling and puts up some big numbers. For Stanford, its only hope is to put some points on the board against the opportunistic Irish defense. The Cardinal need to move the ball to make this a game. I said it two weeks ago after two Michigan State defenders ran into each other that I'll never pick against Notre Dame. The luck of the Irish will find a way to once again win another football game.
UCLA at Oregon State As for UCLA, it's another one of those Bruins teams you just can't figure out. One week, they look talented and physically tough. The next week Chris Brown runs for 188 yards and 3 TDs against them. QB Cory Paus is having a good year (a QB rating of 133) and it will be interesting to watch Paus and his receivers attack an Oregon State defense that I still consider to be a pretty good unit. I think the Beavers will slow Paus and Co. down. Oregon State is back home with an anxious attitude to redeem itself and will roll to a solid victory over UCLA.
No. 7 Oregon at Arizona Look for Oregon to try to pick on the Arizona secondary. One of the best ways to get a young QB to settle down is to be aggressive in the play calling and show you have confidence in him. I like Oregon to come out and make a statement and put up a lot of points against Arizona.
No. 21 Penn State at No. 15 Wisconsin Also watch the return of Lee Evans. He practiced this week, looked good and what a game to come back to against the Penn State secondary. I think he'll play, but how much depends on how he feels, but Brooks Bollinger to Lee Evans has the chance to be a lethal combination this weekend. With the offense clicking behind Davis, Bollinger and Evans and the crowd creating an electric atmosphere sparking the defense to fly around, I think Wisconsin wins here and shows it's a legitimate threat to compete for the Big Ten championship.
Arkansas at No. 10 Tennessee You have to believe after the performances against Florida and Rutgers (they were losing at halftime to Rutgers!) that the Vols will come back with week with a different mindset and realize it's time to get after it. The ability is there, they just need to go out and make plays. The Vols almost look timid. Arkansas is vulnerable to the big plays and this is a chance to Tennessee to get on track playing at home. It will be interesting to see if the Tennessee offense becomes more aggressive in all aspects of the game. On defense, depth is becoming a real concern for the Vols with all the injuries they've suffered. With Arkansas, you have to do two things -- contain Cedric Cobbs and the running game and corral the multi-talented Matt Jones. If the Vols take away the running game and put Jones in obvious passing situations, the Hogs are in trouble on offense. I expect Tennessee to come back from a couple of bad performances and play lights out in Neyland Stadium.
The Stay Focused Games Texas has played extraordinary defense this year, but it hasn't really been tested either. The 'Horns expect Nathan Vasher back this weekend, which will make it an interesting matchup against arguably the Big 12's best receiver in Rashaun Woods. Meanwhile, Oklahoma may have the tougher test by traveling to Missouri. The Sooners offense continues to struggle and the revamped running game -- if you take the Tulane opener out of the question -- has been nonexistent. The Sooners need to get its offense in order. This could be one of those games where the Sooners may need to rely on their defense to just shut down Missouri and Brad Smith. But it won't be easy. This could make the Tigers' year. It will be rocking in Missouri with its fans thinking it has a chance led by Smith. And remember last year when Oklahoma State caught OU flat and knocked them off, basically ending the Sooners' title hopes. For both games, this isn't about Xs and Os. This is about staying focused. If either team looks ahead to Oct. 12 and the Red River Rivalry, they may not make it past this week undefeated. Kirk Herbstreit is an analyst on ESPN College GameDay. |
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