LOUISVILLE -- This city is in a buzz about tonight's game between No. 4 Florida State and Louisville. This is the Cardinals' national championship game. After a 2-2 start, Louisville is finally back in its comfortable underdog role. Heading into the season, it was supposed to make a run at a BCS bowl. Expectations were off the charts and I think it wore on this team a little bit.

	No. 4 Florida State at Louisville
	Kirk Herbstreit joins Mike Tirico and Lee Corso for tonight's 7:30 p.m. ET battle between No. 4 Florida State and Louisville on ESPN. Herbstreit's Thursday Night Lights will appear weekly and breakdown the Thursday night game.

Now, with the Seminoles heading into Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, people are saying "You don't have a chance to beat FSU." That's welcome words to the Cardinals. They're almost ready to say "Thanks. Tell us that again."

Now, the Cardinals get the chance to play the Seminoles at home, at night, on national TV and show the world just how good they are. They've dreamt about this opportunity.

Ragone Needs To Bob-And-Weave
Louisville QB Dave Ragone has taken more than his share of hits this season. It started with a loss to Kentucky where he knocked down 17 times and sacked four. Ragone told me he went from having guys who had 35, 25 and 20 career starts on the O-line to guys with 0, 0 and 0. Only C Dan Koons returns from last year's line. All total, he lost guys who had 41 of the 52 starting assignments.

So, there's going to be some growing pains. You'll hear the words "inexperience" and "youth." What that really means is there are a lot of mental mistakes and breakdowns in blocking assignments. Louisville offensive coordinator John Pettas said these linemen have talent, but they're just young.

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Louisville TE Ronnie Ghent. Ghent, a 6-foot-3, 253 pound senior, had a career-best 7 catches for 123 yards against FSU in 2000 and has the potential to equal those numbers tonight. He's big, but the Cardinals move him around like a receiver, bouncing him around to try to get the ball to him in space. He's a tough matchup for any safety or linebacker. It's likely FSU LB Michael Boulware will get the chore of covering him, but on a rainy night, Ghent could be one of Ragone's first -- and best -- options.

I have a hunch Louisville will line up in the shotgun to get Ragone off the line of scrimmage. He's going to do a lot of quick throws. He'll get the snap and one, two the ball is out to avoid the pass rush. In addition to quick passes, watch for Ragone rolling out, on bootlegs or anything else that moves the pocket. The idea is to keep him from keeping the ball too long and avoid getting hit. I mean, if Kentucky did that to Louisville, even if Florida State's D-line isn't up to its normal standards, they're still going to get pressure.

The Louisville receiving crew lost a great one in Deion Branch, who is now catching passes from Tom Brady in New England, but there are still some weapons. Donta Spillman and Ronnie Ghent have the most receptions, but also keep an eye on Damien Dorsey.

FSU hasn't been tested defensively yet. Ragone and this group of receivers will do that. Remember, this was a defense last year that, statistically, was one of the worst in years at FSU. It allowed the most passing yards in school history and was tied with Duke with the fewest sacks in the ACC with 14. They didn't have the dominating DEs like they're accustomed to having and, as a result, the cornerbacks paid because of the lack of pass rush.

This season, they're mixing it up a little more, but they still need big plays from the DEs and CBs. FSU used to win these games in February on Signing Day. With the athletes they recruited, they didn't need to be real complex. They were just better athletically than everyone else. Now, however, they don't have the athletes to do that. Yes, there are still some -- LB Kendyll Pope and DT Darnell Dockett could have played on any of those great '90s FSU defenses -- but until proven otherwise, we just don't know how good the corners and this defense really is. Tonight, we'll find out. I don't think Louisville will throw deep too much, but it's still going to be a good test for the Seminoles.

FSU -- A Big Ten Offense?
It's pretty interesting that FSU's offense is going through a transition period. In the past, how many times have you seen big plays from the passing game. I mean, it would be Weinke gets the snap, drops back and finds Warrick or Minnis and boom, touchdown. He's throw it on the money and there'd be a big play.

Now, this is a much more patient offense. And there are a couple of reasons for that. First of all, the Seminoles now have a big offensive line. Led by Brett Williams and Montrae Holland -- two of the best in the country -- it averages 6-5 and 313 pounds and they are all experienced. Secondly, the 'Noles now have a big, fast running back in Greg Jones.

FSU almost looks like a Big Ten team out there. It believes in the running game and has made a commitment to it. Jones, 6-1, 248 pounds, is fast enough to run by defenders and strong enough to run over them. He's gone 50 straight carries without being tackled for minus yardage.

But just because they've made this commitment to the running game, don't think the Seminoles don't have big-play threats. This might be the best group of receivers the 'Noles have had in three years. Anquan Bolden is healthy and reminds you of Peter Warrick. Robert Morgan is also 100 percent healthy and is a playmaker and Talman Gardner is a burner on the outside. So, by no means is FSU scrapping its big-play offense. But it's just that much more effective now because opposing teams have to respect the run, something that wasn't always necessary in the past.

There's been lots of talk about FSU QB Chris Rix by the coaches and the media. I came into this game thinking if Rix didn't play well, would he be benched for Adrian McPherson? I don't think it's come to that, but what is driving the coaches crazy is the decisions Rix is making. It's tough on Rix. It's hard to go from a big-play, let's score quick mentality with our passing and playmakers to this let's run the ball, eat the clock, dump the ball off mentality. It's not something you do overnight.

Rix is an athletic guy who can throw the ball well. What he needs to do is trust the system more and go through the checkdowns. If you can't go downfield and Jones is the best option, dump it off to him. The problem is Rix's entire life, whenever he got in trouble, he relied on his instincts to create and make big plays. Now, he's being told to go against those instincts and when in trouble, to dump the ball off. It's one thing to see it in the film room and on the practice field, it's another to do it in the heat of the game when the pocket is collapsing around you and the receiver isn't open. His natural instinct is to run.

But Rix is getting better. They even note how well he did against Duke in the game notes -- he ran just five times, the second fewest in his career -- but I'd be careful with making him stay too much at home. It could be a little counterproductive. I agree he needs to make better decisions, but there's an added dimension when you have a QB like Rix who can make plays and taking that away from him is something to handle carefully.

Two more things. . .
One more guy to watch is Louisville DE Dewayne White. He was, by everyone's standards, the best DE in the country heading into the season and he's starting to feel some of that pressure now. In the past, he said he could just go out and play football. Now he has offenses scheming with him in mind. Offensive lineman are more fired up to play him. They're chirping at him, saying how overrated he is. He's adjusting to it, but it's a totally different feel with all that pressure. But make no mistake about it -- White is this year's Julius Peppers.

Also, watch FSU in general.Last year, they lost 26 seniors plus four more starters to injuries. That's the reason the streaks of 14-straight 10-win and top-5 finishes ended. This year, those same players who heard nothing but how they let the 'Noles heritage down are back and they are, to put it nicely, ticked off. Seemingly minutes after their Gator Bowl win over Virginia Tech, they were ready to start working toward this season. They're embarrassed. They hear the cracks, the cheap shots and they remember the teams that ran it up on them. It's payback time. There is an attitude here. I'm not sure if it's all talk or if it's legit, but I walked out of those meeting with the players believing what they were saying.

The bottom line
There's supposed to be up to two inches of rain tonight. Heck, that's not rain, that's a monsoon. A few things to watch tonight: