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Friday, September 20
 
Spurrier's gone, but rivalry still a good one

By Kirk Herbstreit
Special to ESPN.com

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. -- There's something different this year about the Florida-Tennessee rivalry. Obviously, it's the fact Steve Spurrier won't be on the Florida sidelines. But more than that, it's that he wasn't working the media tweaking Tennessee at every chance. Anytime you lose a controversial figure in a rivalry, you always lose some of the color, the build up and the anticipation. Even a little of the hatred is gone.

It doesn't diminish the rivalry -- this is still a great game -- but it's kind of like when Ohio State lost Woody Hayes and Michigan lost Bo Schembechler. Was the Buckeyes-Wolverines battle any less intense or great? No, but it's just a different kind of rivalry.

Upset Specials
Arizona over No. No. 17 Wisconsin
Arizona QB Jason Johnson is off to an unbelievable start. He's averaging 398.5 yards per game and has 5 TDs so far. Johnson and the speed of WRs Bobby Wade and Andre Thurman have to be a concern to the youthful Badger defense. And that's not even factoring in All Pac-10 RB Clarence Farmer, who is off to a slow start. Arizona's speed and swagger upset Wisconsin in Madison.

Southern Miss over Alabama
Southern Miss traditionally battles 'Bama tough. Even tough the Crimson Tide has won four of the last five, this game is always competitive. I think Derrick Nix, who is averaging 158 ypg, give the Golden Eagles a weapon they haven't had offensively in awhile to go along with their swarming defense that returns nine starters. Look for Southern Miss to find a way to pull off the upset.

That's what happening here. People are talking about how the pressure has reversed on the Tennessee-Florida game. How with Spurrier gone, there's a lot of pressure on first-year coach Ron Zook to win this game, especially after losing to Miami. While I agree to an extent, I also think people are selling Tennessee short.

When the Vols beat Florida in 1998 and went on to win the SEC and the national championship, they broke through a barrier. Before that, Tennessee always had the ability, the athletes and the coaches to beat Florida, but something always seemed to trip them up. Soon, it became a huge obstacle mentally. But once they won in '98, everything changed. Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer became a different coach. He wasn't a guy who couldn't win the big game. Heck, he won the biggest of them all -- the national championship -- in '98.

Tennessee comes in this game a little more relaxed, a little looser and Fulmer is coaching a little looser. And that's not simply because the Ol' Ball Coach isn't on the Gator sidelines. It's more because of 1998. The Vols and Gators have split the last four meetings, but you could easily argue the Vols could have won all four. That has the biggest impact on this rivalry right now. It doesn't matter who's coaching Florida, Tennessee is no longer intimidated by the Gators.

As far as Xs and Os, one of the biggest keys will be how the Florida defense plays Saturday. The Gators looked out of synch when playing Miami. It was like Florida was still trying to figure out where to line up and how to disguise coverages and then all of a sudden here comes Willis McGahee. Either the Gators have to simplify its defense or at least try to make sure its a little more sound than they were in the UM game.

Florida defensive coordinator John Thompson likes to have guys move around and confuse opposing offenses. It gambles and guesses and with that philosophy, it can be feast or famine. Sometimes they guess right and come up with the big play. But sometimes they guess wrong and give up the big play as well. Florida will have to be more sound defensively to stop the Tennessee running game.

This won't be easy. Many people inside Tennessee football think this may be the best offensive line the Vols have had in over a decade. They're experienced, they've been out there and seen different defenses. They're strong, athletic and confident. Some say this is the strength of this unit and considering the other weapons the offense has, that's saying something.

I think Cedric Houston has the chance to have a huge game. Will Florida be able to defend against the Tennessee running game? And how will they defend against one of the country's best wideouts Kelley Washington? If Florida going to extend a lot of energy and double Washington to take him out of the game, leaving itself vulnerable to Houston and the UT running game? Or will it take away the strength of UT -- running the ball -- and leave QB Casey Clausen and Washington, TE Jason Witten Leonard Scott and Tony Brown to pick them apart? Clausen is quick to point out while losing Washington for the first two games of the year hurt, it was a blessing in disguise because it allowed Clausen to get more and more comfortable with Scott, Brown and the other receivers.

Really, it's almost pick your poison here. Clausen will have a lot of flexibility at the line of scrimmage to figure out what's happening.and he'll try to take what the defense is giving him. Florida will try to disguise its coverages, but this could be a tough task for a young Florida defense on the road.

While Neyland Stadium may intimidate the young defense, Florida knows QB Rex Grossman knows how to handle a hostile environment. Granted, he's still learning a new offense and look for him and the RBs and WRs to all wear wristbands to fight the crowd noise. The key will to make sure the O-line knows the plays and protections.

But as much as we want to talk about Grossman and WR Taylor Jacobs, in this game it all comes down to who runs the ball the best. In the last 12 games, the team which runs the ball the best has won 11 games. So, watch Earnest Graham. He has to be able to run the ball to take some of the heat off Grossman. Tennessee will first try to stop Graham and then try to come up with ways to defend the passing game. Watch for the Vols to focus on Jacobs and leave the other receivers isolated in single coverage or some kind of simple zone. Jacobs has double the receptions and nearly triple the yards of any other Florida receiver The Vols will try to make Florida prove someone other than Jacobs -- Aaron Walker? Carlos Perez? -- can make a play.

Keep an eye on the early going in this game. The Gators can't afford to get off to a slow start or get down early. So many things against them mentally that the Gators need a quick start.

I know this game seems to favor Tennessee, but don't underestimate the Florida Gators. They're still a Top 10 team. They still have great athletes. They still have Rex Grossman. And now they have a big time chip on their shoulder to prove people wrong. It seems just because they lost to Miami and didn't dominate Ohio, everyone is just waiting for Florida to fall apart. People are writing the Gators off much too early.

As for my pick, well, tune into GameDay Saturday from Knoxville.

No. 7 Virginia Tech at No. 21 Texas A&M
I expect this game to be extremely low scoring, unless there are some bizarre special teams or defensive TDs. Virginia Tech is led by, of course, The Untouchables -- Lee Suggs and Kevin Jones. They are coming off a great game against Marshall, where even though the Herd put everyone at the line of scrimmage to stop them, Suggs had 153 yards and Jones added 171.

Here's guessing they won't have that kind of success against a Wrecking Crew defense that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in over two seasons. That means Bryan Randall will have to have some success throwing the ball. How will Randall do if it's third and 7 or longer? Kyle Field is a tough place to make long conversions.

For A&M, one thing is for certain -- this QB shuffle isn't working. For an offense that had so much promise heading into the season, it is off to a dreadful start. Who knows what direction they're going? Virginia Tech has a really good defense. DeAngelo Hall and Ronyell Whitaker are shutdown corners and the pass rushers are incredibly gifted. A&M's best chance to move the ball will be mixing the run with the pass and hope RB Derek Farmer can have a big day

The team that wins this game will be the team that creates the most turnovers or makes the most big special teams plays and gives its offense a short field to work with. Although Frank Beamer and the Hokies are known for defense and special teams -- they've had 73 special teams or defensive TDs since Beamer arrived in 1987, including 56 in the last 101 games. If this game was in Blacksburg, I'd pick the Hokies, but the fact they're at Kyle Field when A&M rarely loses non-conference games, I think Texas A&M finds a way to win a very low scoring game.

No. 11 USC at No. 23 Kansas State
Believe it or not, I'm as excited to watch this one as any game this weekend.

The Trojans are playing remarkably better under Pete Carroll. QB Carson Palmer is making better decisions this year. He's completing 72 percent of his passes and is averaging 273 ypg. Sultan McCullough and Malaefou MacKenzie are running the ball more consistently and the defense is just flying around and coming off a great game where it held Colorado to just 61 total yards offense. The Trojans have played a tough non-conference schedule (Auburn and at Colorado) and are have come out 2-0 and outscoring their opponents 64-20. They're a proven commodity.

K-State, on the other hand, is untested. We don't know just how good they are. I picked them to win the Big 12 North because the defense is really gifted and the defensive front is strong and athletic. Terry Pierce is the anchor -- averaging 8 tackles a game -- and the secondary is young, but gets a boost from the return of Terence Newman. On offense, there's a big O-line, some talented receivers and Darren Sproles at running back. I still like them, but I just don't know how good they can be. Well, we'll find out Saturday.

I think USC's newfound running game will find yards tough to come by against Pierce and Co. Sproles will have the kind of game people remember and while I think QB Marc Dunn needs to be a little more involved in the offense -- he threw just four passes last week -- to keep USC's defense honest, I think the fact K-State is at home will affect the defense's effort and give the Wildcats enough momentum to find a way to win this game.

No. 12 Notre Dame at Michigan State
Whether you're a Notre Dame fan or not, you have to appreciate what's happening in South Bend. It shows how much a team's mindset affects the outcome of the game. Notre Dame truly believes it is going to win. Whatever Tyrone Willingham tells them to do, they just do it. No questions. They believe in the coach and in each other and sometimes that can do wonders.

But while some people are already pencilling in a 7-0 record for the Irish heading into the Florida State game, that's a little foolish. Be careful with this team before assuming the Irish can just roll through the schedule. They don't have the talent like Miami or Tennessee or FSU to just show up and win with less than their best effort. There isn't a team on the schedule they can just show up and say "Hey, we're Notre Dame" and win.

That goes for this week. Michigan State is coming off an embarrassing loss to Cal. It's a typical Michigan State kind of loss. They just overlooked the Bears, focused on ND, came out flat and never recovered. Now, they're back at home with everyone watching. There will be national TV, plenty of hype, grandma, mom, cousins, buddies, friends all watching. Trust me, Michigan State won't be flat this week.

How the Irish handle Michigan State's Charles Rogers will be the key. Rogers is averaging over 150 yards a game. He's a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball. But what Michigan State needs is Dawan Moss to start running the ball better. If the Spartans can run the ball, the field opens up for Rogers. If Moss can spark the running game, that creates balance and makes Michigan State a dangerous team. We know Jeff Smoker can throw the ball and we know Rogers can make highlight reel plays every week. We need to find out is Moss can become the go-to back the Spartans need.

I like Michigan State to come back strong one week after embarrassing itself. This is a chance for redemption. Michigan State will show up with a different mindset and walk away with the win.

Kirk Herbstreit is an analyst on ESPN College GameDay.







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